Thread by @SabFis3

I was asked to think about possible end states and European security for an expert roundtable. It is still very early to discuss this, but here are my thoughts. I organize them around the question of the existence of an independent UA state, 🧵1/12
#RussiainvadesUkraine

because this is what this war is about: RU has attacked to destroy UA as an independent state; UA fights back to preserve their independent statehood.
4 scenarios:

1. RU wins, UA ceases to exist as an independent state. Moscow installs some kind of puppet regime in Kyiv, 2/12

large parts of UA will be permanently occupied by RU and proxy troops; like BY UA will become an integral part of the space controlled by RU, and this space will have a direct boundary with the EU and NATO. 3/12

The European security order will remain confrontational for a long time, deterrence will be a key element of Western policy in this security order.

2. UA wins and continues to exist as an independent state; that would require at least partial military victory and a durable 4/12

ceasefire agreement in which RU makes major concessions. UA might “pay” for such an outcome by temporarily giving up on NATO ambition and/or loosing control over some (more?) of its territory, but will continue to closely cooperate with EU, NATO, including on sec guaranties 5/12

The European security order will still be confrontational, deterrence against RU and support for security of UA and other countries in Eastern Europe will still need to be a key element of Western policy. At some point, lifting of some sanctions, some kind of détente 6/12

through arms control talks or CBMs might be possible, but it will take a long time after this war. RU is facing accusations of war crimes, even genocide. This raises the issue of post-conflict justice vs impunity. It will stay with UA, with us all. 7/12

3. Military stalemate as a result of a war of attrition, here a brittle ceasefire or no ceasefire agreement are thinkable. This would be extremely unstable and likely lead to new war.

4. Internationalisation of the war: a direct military confrontation between RU and NATO. 8/12

“Stalemate” and “internationalization” are not end states but stages in a development towards more escalation.

The outcome of “RU wins” and “UA wins” could be relatively stable. In the “RU wins” scenario European security would resemble a Cold War situation, 9/12

but it would be more volatile and precarious because we don’t live in the age of bipolarity.

The “UA wins” scenario would give UA and its partners some breathing space, but RU’s aggressive attitude would most likely persist. Clearly, this is the most desirable outcome 10/12

from a UA and Western perspective, so Western policy needs to do its maximum to make it happen (sanctions + weapons supplies).

Any kind of more positive development long term will depend on and require substantial change of RU’s policy - 11/12

which is unlikely while Putin stays in the Kremlin. Unfortunately it does not become a lot more likely looking at the different possible trajectories Russia could take if and when things start to move inside the country. I wish I could be more optimistic...
12/End of 🧵