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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
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Mar 26 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
The repercussions of Russia's catastrophe are coming. Armenia had banked for years on Russia providing them some support. Azerbaijan seems to think they can now do what they want. God help us, I hope there is not another war.
I am hardly a regional expert, but the repercussions of Putin's disastrous decision making looks like it might completely alter the political reality in the caucasus and central Asia. So many things seem in flux when Russia is shown to be a partly-paper tiger.
Footage supposedly of Russian forces leaving Nagorno Karabakh--that was fast. Russia is severely weakened.
And this was from yesterday. Azerbaijan treating Russia with a hint of derision.
No one wants to hitch their future to Putin's Russia. To weak and too delusional. Soon, all that will be left is Belarus.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 28
Weirdest story of the day. Which makes most sense.
1) someone in Abramovich's entourage poisoned everyone and got his boss (by accident?)
2) Abramovich tried to poison the Ukrainians and got himself too.
3) Russian intelligence poisoned their own delegation to get the Ukrainians.
Has Abramovich been back in Russia since then? Maybe it was an attempt on him. I remember he flew to Istanbul a while ago. What a strange, strange story.
Reuters reporting it was environmental factors, so the great mystery is maybe not so mysterious.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 28
This is all true, but you could write the same story for almost every major European country and the USA.
You have USA (Trump administration), UK (money laundering extraordinaire plus funding of governing party), Italy (huge support for populist movement-Salvini) France (NF, far left), to go along with Germany
Whats weird is that many people seem to delight in pointing out people doing Putin's work in other countries, but they dont spend nearly as much time honestly evaluating their own systems.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 28
Returning to this peace deal thread as Pres Zelensky gave a very interesting interview to Russian media in which he touched explicitly or implicitly on all the key points (except reparations).
Accepts some form of neutrality, though with security guarantees. So no NATO but (implicitly) no block on Ukraine joining EU.
Wants ceasefire and withdrawal to Feb 24 line.
Big concession is that he is not demanding return of Crimea or Donetsk/Luhansk. He however would not accept any deal unless it was accepted by the Ukrainian legislature.
Read 10 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 27
If Russia is really deploying more forces around Kyiv, and planning on restarting offensive operations, it would be a sign that they really dont have a solid grasp of the strategic situation. Kyiv now would be one of the best defended cities on the earth.
The Russians would need a massive build up to attempt to take Kyiv.
If, otoh, Russia is pulling troops from Sumy and Kharkiv, as reports indicate, to push in two separate directions (down from Kharkiv towards Donbas and also back towards Kyiv), they are not concentrating on an Eastern Strategy.

Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 27
Will tweet more later about the long-term implications if Russia is going for an Eastern Strategy. Its extremely complicated and holds out the possibility of a disastrous long-war for Russia. In the short term, though, its still no sure thing.
Because of the strategically nonsensical way the Russians went into the campaign, shifting troops from the edges to the east will be no easy task. There are no simple road communications they can use. Image
The Ukrainians holding Sumy (they seem to be expanding their control there) means that Russia would have to bring anything it needed for the east that is presently in front of Kyiv back into Russia (not easy with heavy equipment).
Read 8 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 27
I hope it doesn’t need to be said that war crimes by Russia don’t justify war crimes by Ukraine.
Some people seem to be arguing that the Russian prisoners almost deserve to be shot in the legs (if that is happening) because of the brutality in the war. Not only is this ethically wrong, it’s strategically a terrible thing.
Many Russians soldiers are probably in low morale; hate this war and are looking for a way out. You want them to consider surrendering. Once that starts happening in large numbers, it can be contagious.
Read 6 tweets

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