I hope it doesn’t need to be said that war crimes by Russia don’t justify war crimes by Ukraine.
Some people seem to be arguing that the Russian prisoners almost deserve to be shot in the legs (if that is happening) because of the brutality in the war. Not only is this ethically wrong, it’s strategically a terrible thing.
Many Russians soldiers are probably in low morale; hate this war and are looking for a way out. You want them to consider surrendering. Once that starts happening in large numbers, it can be contagious.
If Russians think they mignt be shot in the legs of captured; they will not think of surrendering. If anything they will fight more bitterly.
Think of WWII, German troops (thankfully) surrendered in far higher numbers to the British and Americans because they believed they would be well treated. On the eastern front, they more often fought bitterly for longer.
Ukraine wants Russian soldiers now to surrender.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Mar 29
New stories that Russia will have to accept Ukraine in the EU if Ukraine stays out of NATO. I hope people understand that if this happens, its a major victory for Ukraine.
There are alot of people saying--but the EU wont let Ukraine in right away. In a pre-Feb 24 world Im sure they are right. However, I wonder if we are underestimating the impact of Feb 24 on Europe. The EU always hedged on Ukraine because they safely knew Russia objected
If the EU turns around now, after what the Ukrainians have sacrificed for the right to join the EU and says no to membership--it will seem extraordinarily petty and a rejection of everything that the EU should stand for.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 29
A thought thread on the most remarkable thing of the war--here we are more than a month in this, and the Ukrainians are openly transporting equipment on major roads under clear blue skies. This represents an almost total failure of Russian airpower.
And as this is a captured Russian piece of equipment, it would have to be relatively close to the place of capture, so we are talking near the war zone.
This cuts both ways, there are pictures of Russian columns operating in the open in clear skies--yes they can get attacked but they can also operate much of the time.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 28
Weirdest story of the day. Which makes most sense.
1) someone in Abramovich's entourage poisoned everyone and got his boss (by accident?)
2) Abramovich tried to poison the Ukrainians and got himself too.
3) Russian intelligence poisoned their own delegation to get the Ukrainians.
Has Abramovich been back in Russia since then? Maybe it was an attempt on him. I remember he flew to Istanbul a while ago. What a strange, strange story.
Reuters reporting it was environmental factors, so the great mystery is maybe not so mysterious.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 28
This is all true, but you could write the same story for almost every major European country and the USA.
You have USA (Trump administration), UK (money laundering extraordinaire plus funding of governing party), Italy (huge support for populist movement-Salvini) France (NF, far left), to go along with Germany
Whats weird is that many people seem to delight in pointing out people doing Putin's work in other countries, but they dont spend nearly as much time honestly evaluating their own systems.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 28
Returning to this peace deal thread as Pres Zelensky gave a very interesting interview to Russian media in which he touched explicitly or implicitly on all the key points (except reparations).
Accepts some form of neutrality, though with security guarantees. So no NATO but (implicitly) no block on Ukraine joining EU.
Wants ceasefire and withdrawal to Feb 24 line.
Big concession is that he is not demanding return of Crimea or Donetsk/Luhansk. He however would not accept any deal unless it was accepted by the Ukrainian legislature.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 27
If Russia is really deploying more forces around Kyiv, and planning on restarting offensive operations, it would be a sign that they really dont have a solid grasp of the strategic situation. Kyiv now would be one of the best defended cities on the earth.
The Russians would need a massive build up to attempt to take Kyiv.
If, otoh, Russia is pulling troops from Sumy and Kharkiv, as reports indicate, to push in two separate directions (down from Kharkiv towards Donbas and also back towards Kyiv), they are not concentrating on an Eastern Strategy.

Read 4 tweets

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