Will tweet more later about the long-term implications if Russia is going for an Eastern Strategy. Its extremely complicated and holds out the possibility of a disastrous long-war for Russia. In the short term, though, its still no sure thing.
Because of the strategically nonsensical way the Russians went into the campaign, shifting troops from the edges to the east will be no easy task. There are no simple road communications they can use.
The Ukrainians holding Sumy (they seem to be expanding their control there) means that Russia would have to bring anything it needed for the east that is presently in front of Kyiv back into Russia (not easy with heavy equipment).
It would then have to put the heavy vehicles back onto flat bed trains to move them around to the east. Or it will have to run them very long distances on roads, wearing them out.
Its just as bad for them in the South. If the Ukrainians continue to hold Mariupol and contest the countryside around it, its basically impossible for the Russians to deploy forces from the south west to the east, unless they want to go all the way through Crimea
So an eastern strategy might be happening, but its no short term fix. Getting more forces there is complex and will take time. Also means more wastage for the Russian troops already there and fighting.
Russian strategy in this war has been epically bad.
Ukraine is and presumably will make it harder and harder for the Russians to get troops to the Donbas. They seem to be lengthening their areas of control out of Kharkiv as well as Sumy. Believe me, the Russians dont want to fight their way there.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Mar 29
First Battle of Kyiv looks to be truly over. That is actually momentous. Whatever happens now we are talking about a limited war time and geography-wise--unless we think Russia has the will and resources to conscript, train and arm an entirely new army.
If the Russians are pulling back from Kyiv (which looks likely), coming back will be very very hard without basically societal mobilization. They will probably divert all remaining combat worthy forces to try and consolidate Donbass and East.
Worth noting that this also means Russia is dropping its plan for Odessa--unless something remarkable happens.
Read 11 tweets
Mar 29
New stories that Russia will have to accept Ukraine in the EU if Ukraine stays out of NATO. I hope people understand that if this happens, its a major victory for Ukraine.
There are alot of people saying--but the EU wont let Ukraine in right away. In a pre-Feb 24 world Im sure they are right. However, I wonder if we are underestimating the impact of Feb 24 on Europe. The EU always hedged on Ukraine because they safely knew Russia objected
If the EU turns around now, after what the Ukrainians have sacrificed for the right to join the EU and says no to membership--it will seem extraordinarily petty and a rejection of everything that the EU should stand for.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 29
A thought thread on the most remarkable thing of the war--here we are more than a month in this, and the Ukrainians are openly transporting equipment on major roads under clear blue skies. This represents an almost total failure of Russian airpower.
And as this is a captured Russian piece of equipment, it would have to be relatively close to the place of capture, so we are talking near the war zone.
This cuts both ways, there are pictures of Russian columns operating in the open in clear skies--yes they can get attacked but they can also operate much of the time.
Read 10 tweets
Mar 28
Weirdest story of the day. Which makes most sense.
1) someone in Abramovich's entourage poisoned everyone and got his boss (by accident?)
2) Abramovich tried to poison the Ukrainians and got himself too.
3) Russian intelligence poisoned their own delegation to get the Ukrainians.
Has Abramovich been back in Russia since then? Maybe it was an attempt on him. I remember he flew to Istanbul a while ago. What a strange, strange story.
Reuters reporting it was environmental factors, so the great mystery is maybe not so mysterious.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 28
This is all true, but you could write the same story for almost every major European country and the USA.
You have USA (Trump administration), UK (money laundering extraordinaire plus funding of governing party), Italy (huge support for populist movement-Salvini) France (NF, far left), to go along with Germany
Whats weird is that many people seem to delight in pointing out people doing Putin's work in other countries, but they dont spend nearly as much time honestly evaluating their own systems.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 28
Returning to this peace deal thread as Pres Zelensky gave a very interesting interview to Russian media in which he touched explicitly or implicitly on all the key points (except reparations).
Accepts some form of neutrality, though with security guarantees. So no NATO but (implicitly) no block on Ukraine joining EU.
Wants ceasefire and withdrawal to Feb 24 line.
Big concession is that he is not demanding return of Crimea or Donetsk/Luhansk. He however would not accept any deal unless it was accepted by the Ukrainian legislature.
Read 10 tweets

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