#Bitcoin and TOTAL #crypto market 1Q charts -- each candlestick is 3 Months
What does this tell us about the market? Let's dive in - following tweets.
1/9
The current 3M candle (1 day until close) is in the form of a BULLish "Long Lower Shadow".
Long shadows (wicks) especially without a wick on the opposite end (I'll touch on that) often mean trend reversal. 2/9
Taking a look at the prior candle, it also formed a long-shadow, but in the opposite direction. While the close was higher than the open, it still formed a BEARish Long Upper Shadow. 3/9
Considering that the price rose +57% during this candle then fell nearly -29% in the following candle, I'd say this reversal pattern played out. 4/9
Context: This is occurring within a 1.25Y-long rising consolidation channel with higher highs and higher lows, during a time of rising volume on the 3M chart too. 5/9
Another way to look at the current candlestick is that it is nearly a Dragonfly Doji, which is "T"-shaped.
A +1.37% rise to tomorrow's close would put this as a firm Dragonfly.
A dragonfly doji that appears after a downtrend is bullish, like a hammer candle. 6/9
Meanwhile, the TOTAL market cap chart is also putting in a Long Lower Shadow candle after a Long Upper Shadow inside of a rising consolidation channel; though volume is down compared to prior quarter here. 7/9
Hard to make a firm conclusion. This type of pattern (especially back-to-back reversal Long-Shadow candles) hasn't occurred before on BTC or TOTAL.
But ...
8/9
Overall I think these are long-term bullish signals, and while anything is possible, I expect new highs on #Bitcoin over the course of the next quarters. 9/9 Fin.
Assume in February 2020, at the height of markets before the Covid crash, you knew the crash was coming, and had the option of putting your entire portfolio into S&P 500, GOLD, SILVER, or BITCOIN.
Which one would have fared best to today?
S&P 500 from pre-pandemic highs to today:
-32% 2020 crash
+107% 2020-2021 rally from bottom
+43% 2020-2021 Feb to top
-25% 2022 correction top to bottom
+18% from Feb 2020 to today
GOLD from pre-pandemic highs to today:
-5% 2020 crash
+36% 2020 rally from bottom
+28% 2020-2021 Feb to top
-19% 2020-2022 correction top to bottom
+21% from Feb 2020 to today
I wrote out a long thread on this and hit the [X] on the tab instead of the tab itself to share the conclusion, and lost my draft.
So, here's the final image without commentary #bitcoin
I'll say this. Pearson's R of ~0.95 is pretty key.
Some images borrowed from mathisfun.com
This trendline approximates normal distribution where the average price where 50% of data is above and 50% of data is below the trendline.
The #BTC 200D MA (200-day moving average of price) is an important level for understanding #Bitcoin.
I think the $BTC 2Y MA and its 5x multiple are more valuable long-term, but mid-term the 200MA is worth paying attention to.
Here's my perspective 👇[THREAD]👇
From #Bitcoin's introduction in 2009 until its first halving, $BTC stayed above the 200D MA period until its first bear market period. The 200D MA served as resistance, but breaking above it led to prices higher than the 200D MA breakdown the previous year, signaling new 🆙trend
In the next #Bitcoin era, the first after the halving at the end of 2012, $BTC rose rapidly and parabolically, blowing off early and testing the 200D MA for support to continue the bull run. (cont)
... her toaster wouldn’t accept her bread. She held the slice in front of it and waited for the screen to show her a thumbs-up emoji, but instead, it showed her the head-scratching face and made a soft brrt. She waved the bread again. Brrt.
Not too long ago, people said that another blow-off top was inevitable for Bitcoin.
Then, people said that because so many people believed it, it was unlikely to happen.
Now, fewer and fewer people believe in a blow-off top.
Based on above logic, this makes a blow-off more likely
@TechDev_52 -- in ref to some comments back and forth we've had lately
Reading some of the responses to this ... Logic might be hard for some of you. Studying it would be valuable for your life. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoic_log…
"lengthening cycles" is a contradiction in terms.
If the peak takes longer to occur then in previous cycles, that does not mean that the cycle is longer.
Just as if the last snow of winter occurs later in the year, that does not make the year longer!
Some people would have you believe that "The first cycle was from 2009 to 2011" (3 years) and "The second cycle was from 2011 to 2013" (4 years) and "The fourth cycle was from 2013 to 2017" (5 years) and therefore this cycle should be longer.
These people are bastardizing the word cycle and they should remove it from their mouth.