Ted Darling Profile picture
Apr 1, 2022 โ€ข 17 tweets โ€ข 7 min read โ€ข Read on X
Hello Friday at the 1st day of April!
๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฐ

Since there's no trading allowed on the Fool's ๐Ÿƒ Day, let's review the month-end and quarter-end ๐Ÿงฎ!
๐ŸŒŠ rough seas, for sure, but equity volatility declined into month-end (m) but remained ๐Ÿ›— for the quarter (q)

$VIX 20.81 -9.34 pts (m), +3.59 puts (q)
The $NIKK +4.88% (m), -3.37% (q) was the best performing developed market

$SPX +3.6% (m), -4.95% (q)
$COMPQ +3.4% (m), -9.1% (q)
$CAC +0.02% (m), -6.9% (q)
$DAX -0.3% (m), -9.25% (q)
$HSI -2.87% (m), -5.7% (q)
$KOSPI +2.15% (m), -7.4% (q)
$SSEC -6.05% (m), -10.65% (q) โฌ…๏ธ
$XLU was the best performing US equity sector for the month, while $XLE took the ๐Ÿฅฎ for the quarter
(reported ex-div)

$XLU +9.9% (m), +4.3% (q)
$XLE +8.3% (m), +37.75% (q)
$XLRE +7.2% (m), -6.75% (q)
$XLV +5.4% (m), -2.75% (q)
$XLY +4.25% (m), -9.5% (q)
With interest rates through the ๐Ÿ›–, $XHB was the worst performing US sub-sector

#NotQuad4

$XHB -9.8% (m), -26.3% (q)
China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ crashed mid-month before the PBoC stepped in to rescue markets

$FXI -8.4% (m), -12.6% (q)
Rich with ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ and ๐ŸŒฝ, Brazil ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท ripped ๐Ÿš€

$EWZ +14.95% (m), +34.7% (q)
Metals were higher on the month, with Dr. $COPPER leading the charge

#NotQuad4

$COPPER +6.75% (m), +6.5% (q)
Lots of ๐ŸŒŠ with hydrocarbons with $OVX 57.66, but ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธand โ›ฝ๏ธ were up sharply on the month and quarter

#NotQuad4

$WTIC +4.75% (m), +33.3% (q)
$GASO +7.5% (m), +41.9% (q)
$NATGAS +28.2% (m), +51.2 (q)

Natty ๐Ÿš€
Not only is your food and energy going to cost more, but so are your ๐Ÿ‘š ๐Ÿ‘–

$COTTON +10.6% (m), +20.75% (q)
At least your โ˜•๏ธ was stable

$COFFEE -3.0% (m), -0.5% (q)
The story of the month and quarter as UST yields ๐Ÿš€ with curve ๐Ÿฅž

#MaybeQuad4?

The 10/2s declined to .8BPS from 39 BPS at the beginning of the month and 79 BPS at the beginning of the quarter
Bonds were the absolute worst place for your capital for the month and quarter

#NotQuad4

$TLT -5.55% (m), -10.85% (q)
Kuroda-San has pegged the 10-year JGB at < 25 BPS and is the only CB loosening into #inflation.

With that, the ๐Ÿ’ด crashed
$FXY -5.65% (m), -5.6% (q)
The Aussie, on the other hand, picked up the slack in #FX markets๐Ÿฆ˜๐Ÿฆ˜

$FXA +3.0% (m), +2.95% (q)
#Bitcoin

$BTCUSD +5.7% (m), -5.6% (q)
If your #furu bought $TLT, shorted $QQQ, and was indifferent to $CRB, then you missed an epic ๐Ÿƒโ€โ™‚๏ธ in ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธโ›ฝ๏ธ๐ŸŒฝ and the best short ๐Ÿฉณ in treasuries $TBT in a decade

Yeh, maybe the ๐Ÿ’ is going to #quad4, but run your comparisons vs 2019 and ๐Ÿ‘โ€๐Ÿ—จ

Have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐ day!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @tdarling1

May 23
Hello Thursday!

With FOMC ๐Ÿฆ minutes ๐Ÿ““ (nothing ๐Ÿ” that gave you a #BTFD moment) and $NVDA ๐Ÿš€ out of the way, the $VIX (along with metals and the $USD) is collapsing

This is unequivocally โ™‰๏ธ equities

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asian #dispersion โฌ†๏ธ โฌ‡๏ธ

$NIKK 39112 +1.3% โฌ†๏ธ
$SSEC 3116 -1.35% โฌ‡๏ธ
$TWSE 21552 unch
$HSI 18869 -1.7% โฌ‡๏ธ
$KOSPI 2722 -0.05%
$IDX 7221 +0.5% โฌ†๏ธ

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7812 -0.45%

Bharat โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 74955 +1.0%
Europe trying to bounce โ†”๏ธ

$VSTOXX 12.37 ๐Ÿ”ป

$DAX range = 18436 - 19085 โ™‰๏ธ
$FEZ range = 52.32 - 54.53 โ™‰๏ธ

$DAX 18695 +0.05%
$FTSE 8348 -0.25%
$CAC 8102 +0.1%
$AEX 915 +0.5%
$IBEX 11314 -0.15%
$MIB 34411 -0.15%
$SMI 11979 +0.25%
$MOEX 3417 -0.8%
Read 11 tweets
May 5
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ ๐Ÿ’ฐ

Something strange happened in #macro markets this week ๐Ÿงต 1/7

Inflation data pushed ย ๐Ÿ”บ and the #TRA pointed to coupon issuance ๐Ÿ”บ, yet inflation assets sold off ๐Ÿ”ป and bonds caught a bid ๐Ÿ”บ

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/7

Data and policy palooza this past week supported a phase transition to #stagflation
3/7

First the #inflation data

#ECI +1.1% ๐Ÿ”บ
CS Home Price +7.3% y/y ๐Ÿ”บ
#ISM Manufacturing Prices 60.9 ๐Ÿ”บ
Unit Labor Costs +4.7% ๐Ÿ”บ
#ISM Services Prices 59.2 ๐Ÿ”บ
#AHE Y/Y +3.9% ๐Ÿ”ปย โฌ…๏ธ

Together with April #CPI ๐Ÿ”บ and #PCE ๐Ÿ”บ, inflation acceleration is trending ๐Ÿ”บ
Read 7 tweets
Mar 7
Hello Thursday!

"BOJ Board Member Nakagawa Says Japan Moving Steadily Toward Achieving Price Goal" and the $USDJPY rolls againโ€ฆ

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!

wsj.com/articles/boj-bโ€ฆ
Image
Asia closed โ†”๏ธ with $NIKK โ†˜๏ธ ๐Ÿฅท

$NIKK 39598 -1.3%
$SSEC 3027 -0.4%
$TWSE 19694 +1.0% โฌ…๏ธ
$HSI 16239 -1.25%
$KOSPI 2648 +0.25%
$IDX 7369 +0.55%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7764 +0.4%

Bharat โ†”๏ธ
$BSE 74073 unch
Europe trading โ†”๏ธ

$DAX 17671 -0.3%
$FTSE 7657 -0.3%
$CAC 7941 -0.2%
$AEX 859 +0.2%
$IBEX 10254 +0.55%
$MIB 33333 -0.1%
$SMI 11497 -0.45%
$MOEX 3306 -0.15%

$VSTOXX 14.27

$DAX range = 17306 - 17919 โ™‰๏ธ
$FEZ range = 49.79 - 51.89 โ™‰๏ธ
Read 11 tweets
Feb 19
Hello Presidents Day!

The ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ is closed for the holiday but ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ is back after making ๐Ÿฅณ with the ๐Ÿ‰ for the past week

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
In Asia, the $NIKK finding overhead near ATHs after a โ™‰๏ธ breakout run to 38500

$NIKK 38470 -0.1%
$SSEC 2911 +1.55% ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ
$TWSE 18636 +0.15%
$HSI 16156 -1.15%
$KOSPI 2680 +1.2%
$IDX 7297 -0.55%

Australia โ†”๏ธ
$ASX 7665 +0.1%

Bharat โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 72718 +0.4% Image
Europe โ†”๏ธ stalling at ATHs

$DAX 17065 -0.3%
$FTSE 7717 +0.05%
$CAC 7739 -0.4%
$AEX 855 -0.3%
$IBEX 9927 +0.4%
$MIB 31635 -0.3%
$SMI 11327 +0.15%
$MOEX 3247 +0.13%

$VSTOXX 14.62 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 16922 - 17258 โ™‰๏ธ
$FEZ range = 48.13 - 49.50 โ™‰๏ธ Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 23, 2023
Hello Monday!

The ๐Ÿป markets in bonds, equities, and non-USD currencies continues unabated, even though equities are very oversold on a weekly basis.

This new ๐ŸชŸ of weakness is not helping the โ™‰๏ธs ๐Ÿฅ

But #Bitcoin ๐Ÿš€

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
In Asia, $SSEC ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ“‰ from oversold levels

$NIKK 31,000 -0.8%
$SSEC 2939 -1.45% โฌ…๏ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ
$TWII 16441 -0.05%
$HSI 17142 -0.65%
$KOSPI 2357 -0.75%
$IDX 6770 -1.1%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 6844 -0.8%

Bharat โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 65058 -0.5%
Europe trading โ†˜๏ธ at the open

$DAX 14745 -0.35%
$FTSE 7369 -0.45%
$CAC 6811 -0.1%
$AEX 715 -0.25%
$IBEX 870 -0.65%
$MIB 27370 +0.05% โฌ…๏ธ
$SMI 10296 -0.5%
$MOEX 3273 +0.1%

$VSTOXX 23.87 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 14615 - 15219 ๐Ÿป
$FEZ range = 40.05 - 42.64 ๐Ÿป
Read 12 tweets
Oct 4, 2023
Hello Wednesday! ๐Ÿซ

@business headline:
"US bond market rout continues unabated; goes global"

ISM Services data release today is the potential catalyst for a painful reversal.

Let's dig into the market ๐Ÿงฎ!
In Asia, the $NIKK rout continued

$NIKK 30535 -2.15% ๐Ÿซ
$SSEC holiday ๐Ÿชฉ
$TWII ๐Ÿชฉ
$HSI 17186 -0.5%
$KOSPI 2405 -2.4% ๐Ÿซ
$IDX 6863 -1.15%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 6890 -0.75%

Bharat โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 64939 -0.85%
Mired in ๐Ÿป๐Ÿ’ฉ, Europe tries to muster a gain

$DAX 15059 -0.15%
$FTSE 7478 +0.1%
$CAC 7003 +0.1%
$AEX 721 +0.35%
$IBEX 9162 -0.5%
$MIB 27454 -0.1%
$SMI 10786 +0.2%
$MOEX 3150 +0.2%

$VSTOXX 20.61 ๐Ÿ”บ

$DAX range = 14828 - 15565 ๐Ÿป
$FEZ range = 40.36 - 42.68 ๐Ÿป
Read 11 tweets

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