1/ We are still early days adoption-wise.
Institutions are getting more bullish
Within Europe, the Netherlands & UK are the most crypto-forward; German & French consumers are the most skeptical when it comes to crypto
2/ Proposed ban of „unhosted wallets“ certainly won’t propel the industry but no one involved really has the intention to stifle the industry
3/ One of the key themes are thematic investable cryptoasset indices that focus on categories such as SoV assets, Smart Contract Platforms or Media & Entertainment
4/ Yes, we are currently in a bear market except for Smart Contract Platforms
The „Smart Money“ is investing in Smart Contract Platforms & DeFi Tokens according to data by Messari
5/ German speaking crypto fund industry (DE/AU/CH/LI/LUX):
Most concentration in liquid and hybrid funds.
Obstacles for investors in Germany: Still too much bureaucracy & paperwork involved in onboarding investors
6/ Macro: Inflation & Geopolitics are the most important topics that are being discussed among participants, ESG not so much
7/ Industry vision: In the longer term, direct market access is most-likely to become the standard for institutional clients but question marks remain
8/ DEX vs CEX: DEX suitable for retail but institutions prefer CEXs on account of regulatory certainty. DEX no single point of failure but Smart contract risk - not entirely riskless.
9/ Centralized Exchange tokens have significantly outperformed Decentralized Exchange Tokens in 2021 & 2022 as they can deliver value in a better way to token holders
10/ Final Note: Sentiment among participants is extremely optimistic despite the fact that we are in a bear market.
1. Peak macro momentum
There is a fair chance, that leading indicators have reached their zenith for this cycle and that the overall macro momentum is likely to lose traction from here which could be a headwind for equities. 2/n
2. Very high valuations
There are always exogenous reasons that justify high valuations such as the current NIRP environment. Nonetheless, many metrics show that equity valuations are comparable with the heights of the Dot-Com-Bubble and based on some metrics even higher. 3/n
2/ Data-wise, we all know that March & April 2020 have turned out to be a catastrophe so far. Just think of initial claims, regional manufacturing PMIs, Flash PMIs etc. etc. Nonetheless, there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel. A data point which has clearly surprised...
3/ to the upside were ZEW Expectations in April 2020. Expectations have increased strongly in all regions including the US, Europe & Japan. At the same time, the assessment of the current situation has collapsed to 2008 lows. A typical pattern at the beginning of new cycles.