Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #MonetaryPolicy

Most recents (17)

The @federalreserve’s #JacksonHole Policy Symposium has typically been thought of as an event of #academic contemplation, rather than of active #policy innovation, but 2020’s event proved to be the exception to the rule.
That’s because #Fed #ChairPowell surprised many by introducing the #FOMC’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which was not expected until later in the year.
In many respects, the Strategy statement represents a mirror image to the #Fed’s stance more than a generation ago, in August 1979, when Chair Paul #Volcker took over leadership of the central bank…
Read 7 tweets
In the next RBI Monetary Policy meeting which is on 6th August it is expected that Repo Rate will be cut by 25-35 bps which should be cut by only 15-20 bps & Reverse Repo should be cut by 25-35 bps.
The main reason behind more Reverse Repo cut for this time will be the Banks which have got more liquidity approximately 10 Lakh Cr. that liquidity should not be again parked at RBI. Also more Reverse Repo cut will make Banks easy for lending in the markets.
But this time RBI should do something different like instead of cutting Repo or Reverse Repo, RBI should cut Standing Deposit Facility. Also the Banks which park money on Reverse Repo Window should not be given any intrest and should be penalised.
Read 5 tweets
Think of #Government this way: it exists to smooth economic activity over the cycle (ups & downs). Ergo, it exists for no other reason but to ensure output is close to or at full potential. Efficient resource allocation & redistribution are neccesary but insufficient condition.
Government has two levers it can pull on to honour this so called "social contract". These are Revenue (taxes) & Primary Spending (consumption & investment). In a downturn, as in an upturn, #FiscalPolicy is an automatic and/or deliberate toggle of those two levers...
Ideally, government is expected to always note where the economy is on the cycle (early, mid, late cycle etc) to execute efficient #FiscalPolicy. Should government miscalculate the position, fiscal policy could be misguided (e.g. loose when should be tight)...
Read 7 tweets
COVID-19 is an unparalleled economic crisis in modern history. My colleague @tulsipriya_rk and I have been tracking the macroeconomic effects of it on India’s economy on a weekly basis. Sharing some of the visualisations here in this thread.
#MacroOfCovidIndia Image
Globally, India’s workplace mobility rising relatively faster from a low base since Lockdown 3.0. Mobility levels to retail and recreation still 70% below baseline. #MacroOfCovidIndia @tulsipriya_rk Image
India's mobility to work places, grocery, pharmacy and transit stations picking up since 3rd May while visits to parks, retail and recreation spots remain low. @tulsipriya_rk Image
Read 22 tweets
There is an old saying that goes
"Don't fight the Fed."

Maybe now, this one holds true as well. Consider the following:

*Thread* 1/n
#USA #Economy #Liquidity #MonetaryPolicy #DontFightTheFed #Covid_19
2/ Data-wise, we all know that March & April 2020 have turned out to be a catastrophe so far. Just think of initial claims, regional manufacturing PMIs, Flash PMIs etc. etc. Nonetheless, there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel. A data point which has clearly surprised...
3/ to the upside were ZEW Expectations in April 2020. Expectations have increased strongly in all regions including the US, Europe & Japan. At the same time, the assessment of the current situation has collapsed to 2008 lows. A typical pattern at the beginning of new cycles. Image
Read 10 tweets
Lets talk about #Oil and why the price of the #US benchmark #WTI West Texas Intermediate has turned negative FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER...
Some of you are waking up to what might read or sound like another disaster. Just when you were learning how to deal with #COVID19, you hear about a so called plunge in the #Price of #Oil. But what does it mean to have oil in negative territory & why is that the case? Lets see...
In the main we will talk a bit about simple matters of #supply & #demand while touching on the #future as far as #consumer outlooks & #perception / #confidence are concerned. I would like us to start in 2016, a quick recap...what happened to #Oil?
Read 20 tweets
Lets talk about #Global #CentralBanks and their #MonetaryPolicy stances given #COVID19. Specifically, lets ask ourselves: "Can Central Banks Help Fight COVID-19?"
The best place to start is to note that #Global #Growth was already facing considerable downside risks before the #COVID19 outbreak December 2019. The slow down in global growth came on the back of trade (china vs. us) and geopolitical (Brexit etc.) tensions...
To this end, institutions such as the #IMF & #WorldBank revised down their 2020 #Economic #Growth outlook & emphasised the need for a more coordinated #policy approach between #monetary & #fiscal policy around the globe to "rescue" growth from the doldrums...
Read 14 tweets
If you've been following #Global #Capital #Markets, you'll have noted a significant rebound in some of the world's key stock market indices. This follows a "correction" in the wake of #COVID19. The rebound largely comes on the back of #CentralBank commitment to "lower for longer"
While #CentralBank commitment to "lower for longer" might help rally markets today, it is still imperative for us to consider the #Global #MonetaryPolicy #Toolbox and if policy makers will have enough space to "keep cutting" or providing "stimulus" moving forward.
Below are #CentralBank meeting dates for March 1st to 7th 2020. From this list, Banks that usually "move the needle" as it where, are Bank of #Australia & the Bank of #Canada. As it so happens, Bank of Australia cut policy rate by 25bps to 0.5% citing #COVID19 as downside risk.
Read 7 tweets
Lets talk about the 1st meeting of #G20 #Finance Ministers and #CentralBank Governors. Specifically, lets talk about the short to medium term headwinds for global #Economic #Growth...
If you haven't been living under a rock, and you happen to be an avid scholar / practitioner in the world of #Global #Finance / #CentralBanking, then you know that the Group of 20 Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors met on the 22-23 Feb 2020 in #Riyadh, #SaudiArabia...
The 2020 #g20 meeting of finance ministers & central bank governors in #Riyadh brought together key #Fiscal and #Monetary #Policy makers to discuss, inter alia, what #Global #Economic #Growth prospects look like in the short to medium term...
Read 12 tweets
Lets talk about the #FED's #Outlook on #US & #Global #Growth & where it sees #MonetaryPolicy #Regulation & #Supervision going given the #Zero / #EffectiveLowerBound...
Yesterday, 6th February 2020, the #FederalReserve (FED) Vice Chair for #Supervision addressed the #Money Marketeers of #NewYorkUniversity in #NewYork. His address, in the form of a speech, was coined "The #Economic Outlook, #MonetaryPolicy, and the Demand for #Reserves"...
Considering that the #FED is one of the most influential #CentralBanks in the world, it pays to get as much information from them as possible, especially when it comes to #monetarypolicy conduct and the #Global impacts thereof...
Read 11 tweets
Let us talk about the #FED #FOMC's 1st #MonetaryPolicy meeting of 2020. Specifically, let us talk about the puzzle that is a flatter #PhillipsCurve...
The #FederalOpenMarketCommittee (#FOMC) of the #FederalReserveBank (#FED) of the #US concluded its 1st meeting of 2020 on the 29th January 2020. As expected, the FED did not change rates but left the #KeyPolicyRate, the #FederalFundsRate (#FFR) in the 1.5%-1.75% range...
Indeed, if one considers the #FED #Dotplot of December 2019, the decision to keep rates unchanged would not come as a surprise. What I wanted to focus on today is some key passages in the statement, highlighted in yellow in the screenshot below...its all #PhillipsCurve...
Read 17 tweets
Lets talk about how important it is to frequently #Review #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicy #Frameworks...
I will set things off by pointing out that the various facets of #BusinessCycles (early, mid, late / boom & busts) consistently keep reminding us that what goes up, must come down. We might find ourselves in a prolonged #expansion, but eventually it decelerates into a #recession
As part of #Macroeconomic management (counter cyclical), a #CentralBank's objective (through its #MonetaryPolicy) is to maintain #PriceStability & #FinancialStability & in other cases, to promote #FullEmployment. It does this hand in hand with #FiscalPolicy...
Read 15 tweets
Let us talk about recent #Trends in #Global #Monetary #Policy, say, from 2015 to 2019...
Before I do that, let me give you an updated list of #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicyCommittee meetings for 2020...The matrix attached shows MPC dates for #CBL #SARB #FED and #ECB...
Surely we are conversant with the terms #dovish #hawkish #loose #tight #expansionary & #contractionary when it comes to #monetarypolicy jargon. What did the #global monetary policy landscape look like from 2015 to 2019? Was it loose or tight, expansionary or contractionary?
Read 12 tweets
Lets talk about the #MonetaryPolicy Implications for #FinancialInnovation / #FinTech...
I am sure by this time we have all heard of the phenomenon known as #FinTech. Recently, I used the #GoogleTrends platform to ascertain the degree of search interest in the term "FinTech". The graphs depict a surge in interest from around 2014...
I took the #GoogleTrends analysis a bit further and determined where (geographically) interest in the search term #FinTech was most pronounced...
Read 13 tweets
Let us briefly #Reflect on the #SARB's first #MPC #Meeting of 2020 and their #MonetaryPolicy decision to cut rates by 25bps from 6.5% to 6.25%...
Everyone with some interest in such matters is without a doubt already aware that the #SouthAfricanReserveBank's #MonetaryPolicyCommittee cut its key #PolicyRate, the #Repo by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.25%. The move can perhaps best be summarised by the following statement:
It is clear from the statement above that the SARB moved on the back of a growth story. They would want to see the level of #inflation creep closer to 4.5% but they didnt tighten to achieve this end. Rather, they provided more accommodation for growth & inflation might pick up...
Read 11 tweets
Let us talk about the #SouthAfricanReserveBank & what we can expect from their #MonetaryPolicy in 2020...
The #SouthAfricanReserveBank #SARB #MonetaryPolicyCommittee #MPC will conclude its first meeting of 2020 tomorrow 16th January 2020...The #KeyPolicyRate, the #RepoRate is currently 6.5% and #Inflation (#CPI inflation) is within the Bank's 3%-6% target range, at 3.6%...
The #SARB #MPC will consider #domestic #regional & #global #economic / #macroeconomic developments in deciding on its policy stance. The SARB is an inflation targeting #CentralBank whose mandate is to ensure #Price & #Financial #Stability necessary to support economic #Growth...
Read 6 tweets
Lets talk #New #Tools for #MonetaryPolicy...
The #Global #Financial #Crisis of 2007/08 taught the policy making world that something special beyond #Conventional #MonetaryPolicy was necessary to lift economies out of the economic malaise...tinkering with the key rates was not enough anymore...
To this end, #centralbanks in the developed world (The US, UK, Japan, The EuroArea) adopted what they termed #UnconventionalMonetaryPolicy #UMP which is characterised by #ForwardGuidance #NegativeInterestRatePolicy & #QuantitativeEasing...but, have they helped?
Read 10 tweets

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