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Michael Bond Profile picture
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Apr 4 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
A few legislative initiatives from around the world to seize assets in connection with #sanctions on #Russia and transfer them to #Ukraine directly or Ukrainian focused charities

US
forbes.com/sites/jonathan…

Canada
nationalpost.com/news/politics/…

UK considering
theguardian.com/world/2022/mar…
The Ukrainian central bank is making the argument for reparations from frozen Russian foreign currency reserves

bbc.com/news/business-…
More broadly, there is some precedent in international law. Here are some overviews and recent decisions. This is obviously not comprehensive

Red Cross
icrc.org/en/doc/assets/…

International Court of Justice
icj.org/wp-content/upl…

Academic overview
corteidh.or.cr/tablas/r31595.…
Ukraine has also begun asset seizures directly
In the absence of asset seizure laws or state level treaty obligations, there are legal challenges in many countries to asset seizures

usatoday.com/story/opinion/…

Including where seizures are implemented at the EU level but not directly in national law

volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achterg…

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More from @HelloMrBond

Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 5
Three experts recently made different predictions for how the Russian war in Ukraine would proceed in the south east.

See the arguments of @KofmanMichael, @MarkHertling and @Podolyak_M linked below before letting us know what you think is most likely
Slow assault, with envelopment unlikely
Envelopment. Frontal assault unlikely.

Read 4 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 4
April 3 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Concept
When competing claims are made for losses, setting these claims against each other can narrow the range that actual numbers should lie within. Claims form a maximum and admissions form a minimum. NATO has stated that it uses a similar approach in forming its estimates
Examination of open source intelligence such as photos of equipment losses can further narrow the range or provide insight into which claims are closest to confirmable numbers. There are MANY limits to how much value this range has. This is not a predictive tool
Read 49 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 3
Three global political developments today affecting/affected by Russia invading Ukraine

Hungarian election April 3

French polling is unexpectedly close

Pakistan parliament dissolved after Khan argues attempts to remove him are a US backed plot

Notes below
#Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban is seeking re-election today. #Ukraine’s Zelensky has been very critical of Orban’s failure to support Ukraine, including by refusing use of Hungarian airspace for military aid to Ukraine



There are concerns that if Le Pen defeats Macron in the April 10 election, France would not remain as involved in support for Ukraine. Polling has recently narrowed the gap in support

Read 5 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Mar 25
March 25 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Concept
When competing claims are made for losses, setting these claims against each other can narrow the range that actual numbers should lie within. Claims form a maximum and admissions form a minimum. NATO has stated that it uses a similar approach in forming its estimates
Examination of open source intelligence such as photos of equipment losses can further narrow the range or provide insight into which claims are closest to confirmable numbers. There are MANY limits to how much value this range has. This is not a predictive tool
Read 43 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Mar 25
Thread 🧵 on reports of personnel losses of #Russia in its invasion of #Ukraine. I am updating a thread on general loss claims. Russian personnel is so complicated it was going to derail that thread. Larger update w analysis coming later today. 1/
Original:
2/
 Russian admitted to 1,351 KIA and 3,825 wounded in the RIA article on March 25. This sets up a minimum bound
ria.ru/20220325/gensh…
3/
 Ukraine claims 15,800 KIA and 47,400 in a simple 3:1 ratio. Note that because of updating issues, the UKR MOD graphic above notes 16,100 KIA. This sets a likely maximum bound
minusrus.com/en as at 12 noon March 25
Read 25 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Mar 24
#Moscow Exchange in #Russia reopens for limited trading in 33 most liquid shares for the first time since Feb 25. In opening minutes it’s up approx. 10%, with foreign sales and #short selling banned and the Ministry of Finance purchasing 1T Rubles (almost 10B USD) of shares Image
First day of #MOEX resumed trading finished up 4.4%, after giving up early gains that approached 12% Image
For context, the Moscow Exchange benchmark index is down approximately 27% year-to-date Image
Read 4 tweets

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