1/ German regulatory landscape is certain enough in order to start building a solid infrastructure - we shouldn’t wait for MiCA
2/ We should create an attractive trading venue for tokenized securities first and deal w/ digital fiat money implementation later
3/ Institutions/banks are simply not „bullish enough“ to issue commercial bank stablecoins & conduct delivery vs payment of financial instruments on a blockchain - at least in Germany it’s not an issue of regulatory uncertainty
4/ CSDR currently prevents tokenized securities to be listed on an exchange without a centralized depository. Exemptions are under way but at least 2-3 years away
5/ Lots of embedded crypto projects underway including direct and easy DeFi Staking Yields from your TradFi bank account
6/ NFT secondary market place w/ payments via TradFi bank account are another embedded crypto project.
It‘s generally hard to establish a liquid secondary NFT market as NFTs are unique and therefore illiquid by design
7/ We need to step out of our bubble within the industry and be more inclusive in order to attract more capital („follow the money“)
8/ Cryptoassets can add value to traditional multi asset portfolios via higher risk-adjusted returns; risk-adjusted returns can be increased even more via downscaling
9/ Frank Thelen: Only have BTC & ETH in the portfolio at 10xDNA but we like many others such as ADA
NFTs will grow although value is really subjective and personal
10/ Thelen: Blockchain is a big revolution because we can trust data again.
Thelen: bad decisions made in Berlin recently that are not that public which might harm the German blockchain industry down the road
11/ Thelen: Still a lot of education to be done.
Many politicians who want to ban crypto & Bitcoin but also many politicians who see the potential. In the end, crypto will win.
12/ What can we learn from Bitcoin to establish infrastructure for digital assets?
Lots of dilemmas & misconceptions
Too much focus on E in ESG but not so much on S and G. Ticks a lot of boxes and lots of Peer-to-Peer empowerment
End
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1/ We are still early days adoption-wise.
Institutions are getting more bullish
Within Europe, the Netherlands & UK are the most crypto-forward; German & French consumers are the most skeptical when it comes to crypto
2/ Proposed ban of „unhosted wallets“ certainly won’t propel the industry but no one involved really has the intention to stifle the industry
1. Peak macro momentum
There is a fair chance, that leading indicators have reached their zenith for this cycle and that the overall macro momentum is likely to lose traction from here which could be a headwind for equities. 2/n
2. Very high valuations
There are always exogenous reasons that justify high valuations such as the current NIRP environment. Nonetheless, many metrics show that equity valuations are comparable with the heights of the Dot-Com-Bubble and based on some metrics even higher. 3/n
2/ Data-wise, we all know that March & April 2020 have turned out to be a catastrophe so far. Just think of initial claims, regional manufacturing PMIs, Flash PMIs etc. etc. Nonetheless, there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel. A data point which has clearly surprised...
3/ to the upside were ZEW Expectations in April 2020. Expectations have increased strongly in all regions including the US, Europe & Japan. At the same time, the assessment of the current situation has collapsed to 2008 lows. A typical pattern at the beginning of new cycles.