Thread by @thePlugWeekly

In 2021, Europe imported ~158 Bcm of Russian #natgas.
By 2027, that figure is (supposedly) going to be 0 Bcm.

How do the Europeans get that done? Time for a 🧵

1/n Firstly, how does Europe plan to move away from Russian gas?

1. Moar US #LNG.
2. Increased energy efficiency.
3. More renewable energy deployment.
4. Healthy doses of optimism and idealism.

See @EU_Commission statement below.

ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…

2/n Specifically, within the EU's statement is the commitment to increase LNG imports from the US by:

15 Bcm in 2022
50 Bcm by [2027]

Seems pretty doable? Until you actually dig into it.

3/n This chart from @politico is old, but it helps paint the picture of just how f*cked Europe is.

Even if 100% of outbound US LNG cargoes flow to Europe, they will still have a supply deficit. Also, that won't happen.

4/n Here's the detail on that for anyone who cares.

5/n In February and Marc, 70-80% of outbound US LNG cargoes flowed to Europe. But, that's largely because #TTF (Dutch LNG settlement hub) has priced above #JKM.

That pricing relationship won't last. And, before long, US LNG cargoes will once again be heading to Asia.

6/n Europe doesn't seem to realize this yet, and has been dragging their feet on signing contracts. In the mean time, China has wasted no time snapping up spare #LNG capacity.

H/t @SergioChapa for data.
CC @SusanSakmar.

7/n Since early 2010s, thanks to fracking, the US has mostly been insulated from global gas price volatility. But not anymore.

Global natural gas markets are incredibly tight right now. And #HenryHub is riping - thanks to @DoombergT for the exhibit.

https://twitter.com/DoombergT/status/1512205618622476295?s=20&t=dRAE876pn9BrASoEaiNURg

8/n Global gas demand continues to rise. And #LNG exports are struggling to keep pace.

This is a long-term problem. And it's not going away anytime soon.

h/t @SStapczynski

9/n Separately, it seems that American investors are taking for granted the likelihood that domestic #LNG projects secure financing. Chariff Soukhi ( $TELL) said something about financing being the easiest thing he's done in his life.

And yet, no financing! 👀

10/10 In summary: it's going to be an interesting decade.

Watch as the #energypolicy pendulum swings back towards security, and away from #decarbonization.

Separately - follow @TwainsMustache for more commentary on energy security.