Thread by @kendrickNoble7

Alright Here's An Alpha Thread On Research Methodology Strategy. @SamuelXeus
@PrudentSammy
Pt. 1

What I Put Into Consideration As An AA-RATED Fundamental Analyst 📚🖊

Remember It's a 99% Research, 1% Aping Strategy.

https://twitter.com/kendrickNoble7/status/1512103166535421960

♻️Seed Sale/Private Sale Price

♻️Token Unlocks and Token Unlock Size

♻️Tokenomics (Token Distribution, Supply and Demand)

♻️Liquidity & TVL of Project

♻️Significance In Roadmap

♻️Team/Developers/Audit

♻️Marketing

♻️Utility

♻️Incoming Catalysts

♻️Greed Factor

♻️ Mold Your Bias

♻️ Trend/Narratives

♻️ Dips Of Trending Tokens

♻️ The Competitor's Bias Strategy

♻️Global/Economic Situations and Effects

♻️Portfolio Conditioning

♻️Twitter Lists

♻️Use Of Insider Info

♻️ The Seed Sale/Private Sale Price:

This is a one of the most important factor to consider when making your research on a project and supposedly should be the first you put to heart.

Knowing This Early Puts You In The Position To Know Why You Should Even Make An Intensive Research On That Project You Just Found Out About.

Presale and IDO Prices are not as relevant as the seed/Private Sale prices. Remember that Seed/Private investors are the most earliest

in any project that is being launched and brought into existence.

Some of the seed investors happen to be huge whales, Big Hedgefund Companies and Venture Capitalists like the Fenbushi Capital, Pantera Capital, Alameda Research, Morningstar Ventures, Animoca Brands, YGG Games

Hashed, a16z etc .

Let's say project A seed sale price was $0.02 and at presale price was $0.05. At that point the Seed Investors are already 2.5X up.

Well that's not a big deal, Now let's say on launch the coin went as high as $0.4. That's a 20X up already from seed sale price

Now one of the most ugly thing is some of these projects with such a high upturn might still be in its mid marketcap and then still be attractive to you.
But that's already a big red flag 🚩.

I Repeat a big red flag 🚩

Know how many Xs has it done from seed sale (could consider presale sometimes), the seed/private sale price and what's the current market price

The more Xs it has done the more likely there's gonna be huge constant sell pressure from seed/Private investors

(also presale / IDO)

Most of the time some of these YouTube and Twitter Influencers tend to act like they are the first and only people in a project and sometimes keep promoting projects where VC are up 50x and they don’t even know.

Now you can get information about the Seed/Private Sale Price from the project's whitepaper or from asking in their community via discord, telegram, Twitter etc and then note it down.

Next Thing I Want To Look Out For Is 👇

♻️Token Release/Unlocks and Token Unlock Size; The amounts and time frames, how often are tokens released into circulation( team tokens + seed or presale )

This sometimes is what we commonly refer to as Vesting Schedules Of The Project.

The more tokens constantly put into circulation increases the mcap with the price staying the same and not rising hence the less chance of gains and the more chance the price keeps dumping.

99.9% On News Of Token Unlocks Usually Leads To A Dump In That Project.

Now How does knowing about Token Unlock Schedules help you?

Well you could be very bullish on a project, especially when you see clear and solid fundamentals, sentiments, a very unique utility on such project and might want to ape in.

Now other than the use of Technical Analysis, information on token unlocks will save you a misfortune of going into that project at a wrong time. Yes the token looks very good but then you are now buying when more tokens are going to be released into

circulation thereby reducing the demand for it and increasing supply.

With inflation via increase in supply, an increase in sell pressure follows immediately and the token begins to dump.

So make sure you know token unlock dates/schedules to save yourself from making such mistakes.

Now you heard about an upcoming token unlock and still you observed that the token didn't dump as hard as you felt it would.

Suddenly, You start wondering why it was so? 🤔

This is where the Token Unlock Size Comes In 😉.

It sometimes wasn't really about the news of Token Unlocks but also the size of tokens to be unlocked.

Let's say project B has a total supply of 15000 tokens and a circulating supply of 3000 tokens

and then we hear of upcoming Token Unlocks.

Assuming the token unlock size or % is 10% for the d-date (1200 out of the 12000 tokens left).

This takes the Circulating supply to 4200 and the remaining tokens out of circulation to 11800 which is still a huge amount as regards the total supply of that token.

Meaning about 78.6% of the total supply is still out of circulation.

This could barely cause Fud around the project as it will still be in high demand and barely see a decline in its value.

Now try to see from this angle...how about we do a reverse..Put out 78.6% (i.e 11800 tokens) of the total supply of 15000 tokens into circulation 😅

That means 8180 tokens was added to the 3000 tokens in circulation already.

This is enough FUD already, Crazy inflation with probably release of tokens to early seed, private and presale investors which will cause a

massive sell off of the token as they would want to claim some profits and hence the dump.

A very huge one 🙄

The next thing I would look into is

♻️ Token Economics (Token Allocation/Distribution, Supply and Demand).
Check how the tokens are distributed to the team,seed investors, the presalers, general public, Liquidity pool etc to know if its a healthy one.

If its not a healthy one with the token allocation, 95% of the the time refrain yourself from putting in more efforts to research on that token.

Check the supply of the token ; is it relatively too high?

What's the supply mechanism behind the token?

Is it inflationary or deflationary?

What type of project are we talking about? Is it a coin, P2E token, node token, reward tokens etc.

Websites such as CoinMarketCap.com and CoinGecko.com, dappradar.com, dexscreener.com and Blockchain Explorers (Bscscan.com, Etherscan.io etc) are some of the easiest to navigate and understand.

They also have useful links to the websites, blogs, useful stats.

Now back to where we stopped.
When we say a token's supply mechanism is inflationary, what do we mean?
Well we simply mean that there is constant increment in the number of circulating supply. Now there could be some reasons to this; it could be be it was actually a reward token

a rebase token that increases by adding tokens to supply depending on the algorithmic supply mechanism.

For instance you could buy 1010000 pieces of coin X and in the next 24hrs wake up to see 1010150 tokens.

This shows that some tokens has being added to your initial holdings

If its deflationary, it means that the token supply is reduced over time thus driving demand and increasing its scarcity. This overtime fulfils the Laws of demand which says and i quote....
"The Higher The Demand, The Higher The Price/Value Of An Asset"

The project could initiate this by also by buybacks of the token and burning these tokens forever or using the negative rebase supply mechanism whereby tokens are reduced in your wallets to help slightly increase the price.

So let's say there are 100,000 pieces of a coin and you

hold about 1000 pieces of that token each valued at $1. If we experience a negative rebase of 10% from the supply, the total supply reduces to 90,000 and your holdings to 900 tokens with each now valued at $1.11 (expected ideal price but in reality it varies depending on various

factors) instead of $1 per token.

i.e 100,000 divided by 90,000 or 10% + $1.

Check if its a node project to know how many tokens would be required to create a node. By this it would help reducing the circulating supply of that token; and also the supply mechanism integrated.

So let me narrow what I just said above...

1. Seed and Private Sale Price; avoid tokens that are 10 to 20X+ above seed sale price

2. Token Unlocks and Token Unlock Size (Very important) no matter how green its looking

3. Tokenomics (Allocation, Supply and Demand)

It should be noted that no project will openly put out a news that they are having token unlocks as they all know it could be detrimental to the project.

So you have can use hashtags #TokenUnlock or #TokenUnlocks and get words of rumours on some of the upcoming ones

You can go to their telegram or discord page etc and ask first hand. Buying Into a fundamentally good token that has an incoming token unlock can help send you to the trenches 🙃.

Another way is to check on the project's whitepaper for their token unlock/vesting schedules.

Once they meet the three key points outlined above, then you can now channel much of your energy into the project proper to further research on it.

Now before i talk on the Liquidity and TVL (Total Value Locked) of the project , its best you check out the whitepaper

of the project.
This tells you everything you need to know about the project. Make sure you carefully read through it and make a few line summary of the most unique observations you saw.

Then you check the liquidity of the project to know if its a healthy one, is it locked and for how long.

Here is a thread on liquidity from me, although old but it's gold

https://twitter.com/kendrickNoble7/status/1486734915026644997?t=LID5ieOBAXRUVhsR7wFgBA&s=19

.

To check if the liquidity is locked you could use the various blockchain explorers (bscscan, etherscan) and other tools like moonarch.app, neferucrypto.com @NeferuCrypto , @unicrypt Unicrypt.network and

observe the human-readable datetime format to know how long it's locked via using unixtimestamp.com

♻️ Utility Of The Project;

Make sure you check out the innovations, usefulness and usecase of the project.

Was it really worth having a token for such purpose?

Is there any unique feature they are integrating?

Does It Look Realistic? Does it solve Real Life Problems

The utility/usecase of a project can be seen on the whitepaper or in a summarized form on Coinmarketcap.com, coingecko.com, dexscreener.com , messari.io etc.

Always put in mind that the utility/usecase is the idea behind the creation

of that project. It could be a singular utility or multiple based utility.

However memecoins could be exempted from this popular opinion as most times they barely have real life usecase and are driven or Pumped hard by hypes and word of mouth, community strength and intense

marketing/promotions.

N.B : Poocoin.app is also a good tool for checking out liquidity of a project.

Now after you know about its utility, its high time you check the team behind such ideas and innovations that have captured your attention.

♻️The Team;
Check Out Team backgrounds , do they have previous blockchain experience? are their faces public or are they anonymous? If they are not public, then why ?

Is the team active on telegram and or other social media platforms to keep the investors interested

and update product progression ?Check the team, typically they have linkedin accounts. Check at least several team members and see if they have some activity on their timeline.

Make sure they have some relevant work experience

If the team is anonymous, it’s not ALWAYS a total red flag. Thorchain is anonymous, and it’s worth billions. When a team is anonymous, make sure at least someone reputable (maybe a credible influencer, some reputable VCs) can vouch for them.

Check Out For The Developers Behind The Project and Take Note Of Them.

Next On The Checklist is

♻️Roadmap/Incoming Catalysts

The roadmap usually shows the direction/flow chart of how the team/devs will put in place to achieve their goals, aim and objectives for the project.

Be constantly updated on the roadmap of a project.

Well, knowing the roadmap is beautiful but then spotting the "KEY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES" on a roadmap is even more beautiful as they act as CATALYSTS in aiding the growth of the project .

Look out for the unique paths and the time/season on the roadmap. This will help you so you don't buy at the top waves of the token (higher prices).

Some of the unique features could be mainnet launch 🙃

Also note when these are to be integrated. We don't want to buy a token at

the wrong time. If the key significant features on the roadmap are in Q2, it will be superb and most profitable for us to buy into it close to the end of Q1 or during Q1 especially if the token is Crazily at a discount price 📉 and has a bottomed out chart 📉😉.

Remember a catalyst is anything that can speed up or slow down growth.

So always look out for the KEY SIGNIFICANT FEATURES.

Buy Into a Token that has Incoming Catalysts to strengthen the bias of Investors.

We basically want to buy into the rumours and sell the news 😉.

We want to always buy before the major announcements. So studying roadmaps with diligence could help you spot them before they are announced.

Remember It's a 99% Research Strategy For That 1% Aping That Can Change Your Life 😉🏌‍♂️🚀

♻️Community

Now after checking the Team behind the project, move on to check out the community they have built.

What kind of Audience Have They Built?
Are they really interested in the project's idea and innovation or they are just there to ride for short term profits.

Are They Really Convinced About The Team?

Do The Team Meet Up With Their Stated Roadmap Activities?

Are their social media platforms active and updates and info being passed across on major developments on the project?

What activities and innovations are they putting to

build and keep the community.

Are There Active Marketing Plans For The Project?

Who Are The Influencers and Promoters Involved with this project?

Who Are The Venture Capitalists and Backers Of The Project?

You Have To Know This Because They all form the

community directly or indirectly.

Always Remember This ....
👇

"The Hype Will Bring In The Community, The Innovations Will Keep Them" 😁

♻️Audit

Try to check if the project has being audited to check out for its flaws, vulnerabilities, Shortcomings in its smart contract and also from front running attacks.

They also help you to filter the noise and identify what can really be actualized with the project.

Some Auditing Firms are Certik, Hacken, Rugdoc, Peckshield etc.

You can also check out for more 🦾

♻️Marketing

Have you ever seen where the most eligible and suitable candidate for an election go into elections without organising campaigns to spread his name to the mouths of the masses and build more support ? No!

Hell No👎.

The good products you see today

are a function of their innovations and good marketing put in place.

Ariel, Klin didn't just become global products by just the working products they offer. They had to advertise and work on marketing to get to the global stage.
As popular as #dettol , it is still advertised

daily.
So marketing plays a very crucial role in any products growth.

Innovation + Marketing and providing a required solution per time has always made good products stand out and this is why I earlier stated make sure you see that there is a need for the product

before you try to engage and utilize it.

Same applies in the Crypto Space. Utility plus the demand for that product will help its growth.
How do the product team build this demand? Simple, Marketing.

The marketing will help know create an awareness on the product and at such

help drive the demand if its a product that's highly needed at that time.
That is why u see we have different waves, Trends and Narratives.

Most of these Narratives are driven by the demand at a particular point in time

Next i would check out for a 👇

♻️Greed Factor
The Greed Factor is any thing you can observe that will cause an unusual demand for that product.

What do you see that will cause a continuous traction to luring more investors to interacting with the project?

It could high APRs, Continuous Airdrops on holding the token, Guranteed IDO Allocations, NFT Rewards, Voting Power In The Community, Access To Some Other Products etc.

For example people holding the Bored Ape NFT are qualified to be given the new bored ape shirt collection

worth about $15k (rumoured) for free.

Recently, Bored Ape Owners got the newly listed Apecoin for free by virtue of having the token.

So always check out for Greed factors that will drive the demand for the project. Don't forget The Human Emotions Barely Evolves;

It's constantly driven by fear and GREED.

♻️ Mold Your Bias ; after going through the above checklist, make a bias on the project.

Is it a good Buy Or Not?
Draw a conclusion based on your bias.

Note : Always Research The Pumps, Dumps and Shortcomings Of A Project To Help Build More Catalyst To Aid Narrowing Your Research Arsenals.

It's not going to be easy but trust me with time, you will carve out a solid research template for yourself through discipline, dedication

and experience. Also Build Yourself Around A Few Niches, it will help you to be more direct.

We have the likes of @TheBreadMakerr focusing more on nodes, @ZssBecker and @MrUnderrated101 focusing more on #Gamefi and #metaverse projects.

We have the likes of @OfficialTravlad @1goonrich, @JasonCryptoFTW focusing more on memecoins etc

So take your time to create a few niche for yourself and be unusually skilled in it.

♻️Trend/Narratives
Study to know the trend if the market; is it an #AVAX season, are we in the #Fantom season, #Gamefi, #Metaverse Season.

What have being the recent Shortcomings in general? Has there being recent hacks, Exploits and theft on various protocols. Then we might be

headed for a security/ Privacy token season. Maybe data and storage tokens etc.

Was there recent huge developments and investments on the #Metaverse structure, then we might be headed for the #Metaverse season soon.

Note : You can only know the future from what's happening now

Check out for Increasing Total Value Locked On Various Projects (Blockchains, Dexes etc), check sthe various bridging protocols like @SynapseNetwork_ and other bridges for their daily, weekly reports to know where the higher volumes of money is being bridged to.

And also tell you where people are confident of pushing their money at that time which may be due to demand or Ease of accessibility on other products

Some trends may be a short lived hype due to inaccessibility of the protocol or difficulty in interacting with them.

Other bridges are celer Bridge (cbridge) , polybridge etc and check out for their daily reports.
Use the Hashtags #TVL to check the increasing TVL around the crypto space and capitalize on the info.
Study money flow around the various ecosystems via the use of @DappRadar website

And also you can also capitalize on info from crypto insights page like @WatcherGuru @DefiLlama and daily alert pages on various ecosystems such as the @fantom_daily @bsc_daily @Gems_Radar @AVAXDaily @PolygonDaily @solana_daily etc for all round info and news.

If its fantom season then you should be capitalizing on Fantom pages and #fantom content influencers.

♻️Dips Of Trending Tokens

Whenever we are experiencing a particular wave/trend or narrative. Projects that are in that same wave tend to show strength and recover fast when they experience a few corrections.

These are what you should capitalize on for your own advantage.

During The #Fantom wave, people made crazy money from buying $Brush, $Spirit, $Beet at everytime they dipped and had a price correction. This was because they are part of the wave and at everytime they recovered they all did nothing less than a 30 to 50% Profits.

In the #Metis Wave, I personally capitalized on $Tethys about 3 to 5X and on each trade made nothing less than 50% on every of its recovery from a dip.

So capitalizing on the dips of TRENDING TOKENS is actually an #alpha you shouldn't neglect in your journey to being profitable

In the Recent #MoveToEarn Wave, people capitalized on the likes of $Calo and $Stepn more than once.

Why is that so?

Simple! They simply exhibit the current trend/wave properties and at such are built to react to the impulse of money inflow into them by making Pumps 😇🚀📈

Now you will probably feel like why is he not hitting on the marketcap range to look at for?

Well, I will consider that; it's best to look at for low mcap projects probably below or at 1m and up to 10m mcap.
These are what will easily bring you the 10Xs, 20Xs, 50Xs etc.

Not saying a 100m mcap is not nice or a 500m mcap isn't advisable either.

But the low mcap gives you higher probably of making very huge gains especially if its a solid project and your bias on it is firm.

♻️ The Competitor's Bias Strategy

Check out competitors market caps and their (for potential price and mc TP + sell targets).

What am saying is that....you have to check out for competitors in same Niche or that are offering same product, Their Similarities and Differences to

help set Price Increase Targets.

Next is 👇

♻️Economic/Global Situation Setting

What is happening around the world?

What's the nature of the market/ economy and how will it aid in facilitate the general growth of that project?

Are We Bullish?
Are we Bearish?
Are we currently in a shabby market?
( I mean one with no specific direction ).

Are there Economic Crisis & FUD; War, Inflation.

Issues Of Taxation , FOMC Meetings, Crypto Mining Crashes etc.