Thread by @Qnie_Addis

Thread
#BloodyWinter: winter is coming to Ethiopia and it is going to be bloody

1/ In 2-3 months the rainy season will be upon Ethiopia. I am hoping against hope that I am wrong, but I am afraid it is going to be the bloodiest winter in our history!

2/ It appears, both #TPLF & its backers have given up their hope of bringing #TPLF back to power & have settled for an independent #Tigray to serve as their #HOA proxy to disrupt the region. The catch: An independent #Tigray can not be realized without #Welkait.

3/ #TPLF is using this respite to appease the populace severely affected by food shortage and the terrible cost of the loss from the previous campaign in terms of human life and replenish its dwindling supply to feed its army.

4/ At the beginning of the rainy season, #TPLF will once again launch an attack on #Afar and/or #Amhara to disrupt the delivery of aid. It will blame #ENDF/#EDF/#ASF/#Fano for the disruption and use it to launch a new campaign focusing on #Welkait.

5/ The invasion will take place during the rainy season, thereby cancelling out the air superiority of #ENDF.

6/ #TPLF has already prepared the ground among the people by announcing that the next campaign will be the last one and everyone will be required to take part. A 'Million Man' army is being prepared!

7/ The moment #ENDF/#EDF/#ASF respond to #TPLF's aggression, both #HR6600 and #S3199 will come into effect. The sanctions will hit both #Ethiopia and #Eritrea very hard. What about TPLF, you ask?

8/ #TPLF will get away with murder! Literally!
Economic sanctions: how is #TPLF going to be affected by withholding of funds by #IMF, #WBG...?
Arms embargo: how is the US going to stop arms being smuggled across the Sudanese border?......

Visa: does anyone really think #TPLF leaders are worried about not being able to visit the US? Freezing of assets: does anyone really think DT and GR have their money lying around in US banks?

9/ On the other hand the bills will make sure Ethiopia is economically crippled and unable to buy #drones and other weapons. Remember how many articles attributed #ENDF's victory to drones?!

10/ I see folks on SM saying the bills will not be passed into law. My guess, for what it is worth, is that the bills will be passed and they will be passed WITHOUT any modification!

11/ The pieces are already in place! When Congress & the Senate convene to discuss these bills; expect the words of the Patriarch, the reports of @Amnesty & @hrw to be read aloud in the chambers. Very soon, the three-person 'independent' HR investigators will join the fray.

12/ #DrEvil's most recent visit to the us and his meetings with @Ilhan and @SpeakerPelosi was definitely to advance #HR6600 and #S3199 using his position and the power of the @WHO as bargaining chips.

13/ Handing over #Welkait to #TPLF will be a disaster for #Eritrea, #Ethiopia and #Amhara region. The showdown at #Welkait is going to be of epic proportions and very very bloody.

14/ That's why, barring unexpected turn of events, I am afraid the coming Ethiopian winter might become the bloodiest winter in our history. Hundreds of thousands if not millions might perish!

I hope we will once again realize #Ethiopia is not a synonym for The Government of Ethiopia! That #Ethiopia is an idea that goes beyond a government or even a country! Being Ethiopian is a possession that can never get exorcised!

#Ethiopians, it's time to stand up & be counted!