Thread by @HelloMrBond

Thread 🧵consolidating updates from April 3 – April 10 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete

Combat Strength
On March 25 US estimated Russia retained 85-90% combat strength

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1507482420479766531

On April 8 this was updated to an estimate that Russia retains 80-85% combat strength

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1512585833605472259

Of an estimated 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) committed by Russia to the invasion, it is believed they have withdrawn 40 BTGs

https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1511730321305354245

Another estimate suggests that 80 of 130 BTGs remain within Ukraine

https://twitter.com/danlamothe/status/1511747648721674246

It is believed by western military officials that 29 BTGs were rendered combat ineffective

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1511707357096685578

Some of those units are believed to have taken up to 30% manpower losses

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1512583037661421576

The current estimate of forces within the Donbas region is 30 BTGs with 24,000+ personnel

https://twitter.com/danlamothe/status/1511747851964993539

It is expected that the Russian concentration in the Donbas will increase significantly with dozens of BTGs

https://twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1511060615103664133

A recent overview of Russian resources was published April 9, and was highly critical of Russian capability, suggesting months would be needed to reconstitute units that had suffered significant losses
understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…

However, some experts have expressed doubt about the degree of certainty that can be assigned to such assessments. See @konrad_muzyka

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1513048689962635278

and @kofmanmichael

https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1513161711116763136

Repositioning
US defense officials have said that they expect Russia wants to move quickly at refitting units

https://twitter.com/danlamothe/status/1511747559596953606

British intelligence believes it could take as much as three to four weeks before Russia’s forces are effective again
thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-to-…

Western officials believe there are still bottlenecks limiting the speed with which Russia is repositioning its forces

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1511712510931525639

One example is a long convoy of up to 400 vehicles that is entering eastern Ukraine along a single road

https://twitter.com/oalexanderdk/status/1513082423478820866

Captured Equipment
It was recently noted by the leading OSINT observer that equipment captured by Ukraine from Russia has now exceeded 1000 units

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1512836749629792258

While there is not enough certainty around captured equipment to incorporate it into the force estimates at this time, there are increasing signs that captured equipment will be useful
BTR back in use

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/1512892964917456901

Training on captured equipment

https://twitter.com/calibreobscura/status/1512902019685748741

Test firing captured equipment

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1512948464212131842

Repair
The ability to repair damaged heavy equipment has been reduced on the Ukrainian side by heavy damage to the tank factory in Kharkiv and missile attacks on the factory in Lviv

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1509273804157059073

https://twitter.com/in20im/status/1507775350243147781

However, the Ukrainians have found new techniques to repair heavy equipment

https://twitter.com/biz_ukraine_mag/status/1509417501251325955

New Equipment for Ukraine
As the nature of the war is expected to change to have a greater emphasis on larger scale unit engagements, recent reporting has highlighted the successes of Ukraine’s more heavily equipped mechanized and tank units
forbes.com/sites/davidaxe…

Therefore, there have been increasing calls for the donation of heavy equipment from nations supporting Ukraine. Dozens of T-72 tanks and some number of BMP-1s are being supplied by the Czech Republic

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/1511400930364825605

The UK has announced it will be sending 120 units of various armored vehicles

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1512914681954017289

Australia has announced it will be sending 20 Bushmaster armored vehicles

https://twitter.com/hqjoc/status/1512241239567085571

There are unconfirmed reports that Poland may be willing to supply tanks to Ukraine as well

https://twitter.com/notwoofers/status/1513187598461812746

Ukraine is reported to be negotiating with Slovakia for artillery

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1513225549015130122

Ukraine is reported to be in discussions to obtain armoured vehicles either from Germany or from the German manufacturer Rheinmetal

https://twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/1513053684502241283

It has been confirmed that Javelin ATGMs can be manufactured at a rate of 6,000 per year

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1509239753681645576

A pentagon official has stated that it takes 4 days to ship weapons to near Ukraine’s borders and 1-2 days to distribute in the country

https://twitter.com/adegrandpre/status/1511804157417734152

However, all of this new supply has resulted in pushback from Russia

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1513057985387450372

Training of Ukrainian personnel
Ukrainians training in the US on switchblade systems

https://twitter.com/lucasfoxnews/status/1513210540134473733

Lithuania planning to start training Ukrainian on use of western weapons systems

https://twitter.com/samramani2/status/1513149472649494532

Here is the main thread on loses

https://twitter.com/hellomrbond/status/1513343169118851076

Latest update on evaluated combat strength from a BBC reporter

https://twitter.com/markurban01/status/1513532793925603338