Ben Profile picture
Apr 15 4 tweets 2 min read
UK All-Cause Mortality by Vaccination status shows a clear picture!
> Initially the vaccinated appear to be dying less, which could be due to statistical effects
> After several months all vaccinated end up with higher mortality rates than the unvaccinated.
1/n 🧵 #Covid #Covid19
Even stratified by age we can see this effect, here for example people aged 80-89 years old.
There's a brief time where vaccinated appear to be better off, but since October single and double vaxxed are now worse than the unvaccinated.
2/n
Here's the full picture by all age groups:

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More from @USMortality

Apr 14
Walgreens publishes COVID-19 Cases by Vaccination Status. Here we can infer the Vaccine Efficacy for COVID-19 Cases (VE) by using Cohen et al.'s method:
1) For those who test for COVID-19, VE is negative for all age groups, with a VE for all ages of -100.4%
#Covid #Covid19
(1/n)
2) Using the share of population vaccinated we can see a positive effect only for those ~>50 - however we do not know the exact time frame here. Still overall we can still see a VE of -90%!
(2/n)
In summary we do see that the vaccines mostly do not lead to less COVID-19, actually it appears to lead to more spread!

I have concluded that in another analysis here as well:


(3/n)
Read 7 tweets
Apr 12
Big Germany All-Cause Mortality Update!
> Now with full data for Q1/2022
> -7.1% lower mortality, compared to baseline. Image
Reminder full years: Image
And here's full year, if there weren't any COVID-19 deaths. Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 31
Here's something that baffles my mind:
> How can Germany have 1,336 COVID-19 deaths with basically no age-adjusted excess mortality.
> While the US is seeing MORE age-adjusted-excess mortality than COVID-19 deaths?!
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus
In my opinion, there's only one hypothesis:
> The COVID-19 deaths have replaced flu deaths in Germany 1:1.
> The numbers in the US are highly skewed, and most of the excess is very likely not originating from COVID-19.
Thoughts?
As context, here are the covid-19 deaths per M:
Read 7 tweets
Mar 30
US Age-Adjusted All-Cause Mortality Update!
By age group:
By Z-score and age group:
> Note that pretty much all age groups still have steady high excess mortality.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 29
Weekly German Mortality Update!
> Currently -8.2% mortality deficit!
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus Image
Here's the timeseries: Image
And here time series including covid-19 and any vaccine doses. Image
Read 4 tweets

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