Jomini of the West Profile picture
Apr 16 19 tweets 7 min read
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 47-51: The past 120 hrs. have seen Russian forces attempt to break through the Donets River Line & Severodonetsk Salient. In Mariupol Russian forces have made multiple gains, Ukrainian defenses still hold SW & central Mariupol. #UkraineRussianWar
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.4 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. The extent of destruction to Ukrainian cities due to recent fighting is becoming more apparent as UN UNOSAT data becomes available.…
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average at 10 mph. These conditions will degrade air & artillery strikes, while restricting ground movement.
4/ Kharkiv OD. Russian forces remained focused on fixing Ukrainian maneuver units in the Kharkiv area while screening the movement of Russian forces from Belgorod to Izium. Ukrainian forces appear to be opting for limited attacks against Russian critical targets. #kharkhiv
5/ The Ukrainian SOF attack on the railroad bridge in Shebekino is indicative of the type of Ukrainian offensive action we will see in the Kharkiv OD so the foreseeable future. Raids of this nature are crucial to defeating Russian operations near Izium.
6/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces continue daily small-scale attacks SE & SW of Izium and against Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Popasna. Russia continues to feed reinforcements piecemeal into combat like they did around Kyiv.
7/ This approach squanders what offensive capability Russia has left. Conversely this plays to Ukraine’s defensive strengths and will allow Ukrainian forces to gradually attrit Russian combat power and enable transition to more significant counterattacks.
8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian activity in the in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains focused on the capture of Mariupol. Limited attacks and counterattacks by Russian and Ukrainian forces continue between the line running from Vasylivka to Volnovakha.
9/ The Ukrainian Resistance Center states that partisan activity has been ongoing in Melitopol since mid-March. Active Partisan cells, coupled with civil resistance, consumes considerable combat power, denying these forces for operations elsewhere.…
10/ Mariupol. The situation in Mariupol continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian defenders, yet they hold on to SW & central Mariupol. It is unclear how much longer they can hold out, but the increase of Russian strike activity suggests they have heavily damaged Russian forces.
11/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Russian forces continue to struggle with maintaining meaningful control of Kherson. Attempts to expand the Russian defensive perimeter west of Kherson have not been successful. Ukraine may launch larger counterattacks here. #Kherson #Moskva
12/ Aerospace Assessment. According to Oryx, Russia has lost a total of 32 UAVs since 24 Feb, 21 of which have been destroyed while the other 11 have been captured. The Ukrainian forces report 6x Orlan-10 recon UAVs destroyed in the Donbas this week.…
13/ Chem-Bio-Nuclear. Though it is difficult to verify if the Russians did conduct a chemical attack in Mariupol, it is possible this attack occured. Mariupol is ideal to test delivery of chemical munitions by UAV, given the ambiguity of information coming from the city.
14/ Battle Damage Assessment. The Ukrainian General Staff reports Ukrainian forces have repelled 6 attacks throughout the Donbas over the past 24 hours, destroying 4x tanks, 6x armored vehicles, 4x unarmored vehicles, and 1x artillery system.
15/ Information Advantage. The sinking of the Black Seas Fleet flagship, the Moskva, is an important psychological victory for Ukraine, being the largest ship sunk in combat since World War II. The Moskva was the only BSF ship with long-range air defense.
16/ Resisting Occupation. The arrest of Viktor Medvedchuck is an important political victory for Ukraine, as Medvedchuck (who escaped house arrest in February) was the Kremlin’s strongest Ukrainian government ally.
17/ Overall Assessment. Both Ukraine and Russia will not reenter negotiations until they have gained a clear upper hand through operational success in the Donbas. Continued battlefield failures will make the Kremlin more erratic and prone to resort to desperate measures.
18/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
19/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.

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More from @JominiW

Apr 15
1/ Surmising Ukraine’s Strategic Options. Earlier this week I speculated on what a revised Russian OPLAN may look like. Today I will surmise on likely strategic options Ukraine may pursue to defeat Russia…and win. Another long thread. #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineUnderAttack
2/ I ended the surmised Russian OPLAN thread with a very brief discussion regarding the challenge how sparse data on the Ukrainian Armed Forces makes it difficult to forecast its operational direction. If anything, this shows the strength of UAF operational security.
3/ One speculative statement I made guessed that the Ukrainian military may be stretched too thin for major counteroffensives, especially of the kind I suggest in this thread. However, I do feel the potential for the action I describe is there for a few reasons.
Read 30 tweets
Apr 11
1/ Surmising a revised Russian OPLAN. Here are my thoughts on what Russia’s revised operational plan may look like. I have constructed this off what I consider the most logical operational approach that can yield positive results. #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineUnderAttack #strategy
2/ Given Russian operational performance to date I realize that this assessment may end up being wildly off. Producing a reliable open-source analysis is difficult to say the least. Information is scarce & what is available is heavily weighted in favor of Ukraine.
3/ Still, to understand where this war is going, what conditions military operations will create in the coming weeks, and how they may set conditions for a negotiated settlement an attempt to surmise a logical course of action is necessary.
Read 32 tweets
Apr 11
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 42-46: The past 100 hrs. have seen increased Russian focus on the Donets River Line & Severodonetsk Salient. Ukraine has mounted a series of successful counter attacks against Kherson, threatening Russian control there. #UkraineRussianWar Image
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.1 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. Russian forces allowed 3,425 civilians to be evacuated from Berdyanak & Mariupol, while another 529 civilians were evacuated from Melitopol.
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average above 10 mph. These conditions will degrade air & artillery strikes, while ground movement will be slowed.
Read 18 tweets
Apr 6
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 41: The past 24 hours saw Russian forces continue retreat from the Sumy oblast, although a small portion maintains a token Russian force. Redeployment of units from Kyiv & Sumy to Izium continues. #UkraineWar #RussianUkrainianWar #Ukraine
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees near 6 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. The UN Human Rights Office now states Russian forces directly & killed civilians in Bucha. Russian forces continue to block access to Mariupol.
3/ Weather assessment. The Donbas region will experience extended periods of cloud cover and rain during the early part of next week (11-13 Apr). These conditions and varying wind speed will hamper the accuracy of air & artillery strikes for VKS & UAF.
Read 16 tweets
Apr 5
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 38-40: Today’s update Is a brief commentary on the state of the war. The collapse of the Kyiv-Chernihiv & Sumy Strategic Fronts & a shift of combat focus to east Ukraine will change the character of the war, not its essence. #Ukraine #UkraineWar
2/ The situation on the ground is fluid, as the remaining Russian forces withdraw from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, & Sumy Oblasts and is difficult to map. As a result, today’s update only presents a general overview of the situation across Ukraine as is currently understood.
3/ On the third day of the war I posted the following estimate of what I felt were Russia’s surmised war aims. The collapse of 2 of 3 West OSK fronts forces a reassessment of how Russia intends to accomplish its goals. More to follow in the coming days.
Read 16 tweets
Apr 2
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 37: Today’s update focuses on each of the Strategic Fronts in the UTW. BLUF, Ukraine has defeated Russian forces along the Kyiv-Chernihiv & Sumy Fronts. East Ukraine is now the focal point of operations. #Ukraine #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees exceed 5.4 million, with 6.5 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. As Russian forces pull out of NW Kyiv, the brutality of their occupation is more apparent. Russia continues to block aid convoys access to Mariupol.
3/ Weather assessment. Thunderstorms & wintery mix remain in the forecast & will continue to adversely affect aerospace and ground operations. Poor weather may hamper Ukrainian attempts to disrupt the Russian retreat from Kyiv. Temperatures generally will remain between 17/ 0 C.
Read 19 tweets

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