The flash S&P Global/CIPS composite #PMI fell from 60.9 in March to 57.6 in April. Although broadly consistent with GDP growing at a quarterly rate of 0.7-8%, the latest reading signals a marked slowing in the pace of growth 1/
UK service sector business inflows grew at the slowest rate in 2022 to date. In manufacturing, order book growth has lost momentum, driven by an increasing loss of export sales, to result in the weakest rise in new orders since January 2021. 2/
#UK manufacturers and service providers reported demand having been hit by high COVID-19 infection rates and spending power having been squeezed by higher prices, but Brexit was also seen as having hit exports, and the Ukraine war/sanctions was cited as an additional headwind 3/
Concerns over the worsening inflation outlook were flamed by another leap in firms' costs in April. Average input costs rose at a rate just shy of last November's record high, pointing to a further re-acceleration of UK inflationary pressures 4/
Having been hit hard in March, future output expectations were scaled back further in April, with prospects now running at their lowest since October 2020 on average. Concerns over the Russia-Ukraine war added to concerns over Brexit, supply chains, prices and economic growth 5/6
In summary, UK April flash #PMI surveys showed an unwelcome picture of slowing demand, slumping business confidence about the year ahead and soaring price pressures 6/6
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The PMI data in particular will help assess the economic impact of the Omicron variant. Global growth slowed to a 1½ year low in January with a sharp rise in the number of firms reporting output being constrained by staff shortages & illness linked to Omicron ...
More encouragingly, the incidence of output being constrained by materials shortages continued to fall from a pandemic-peak recorded last October.
Global economic growth slowed at the end of 2021 amid rising COVID-19 infection rates linked to #Omicron. However, at 54.3, the Global PMI signals above-trend annualised quarterly global GDP growth of approx. 3.5%.
The December global PMI was pulled lower by a slowing of service sector growth, which slipped to the weakest for three months. In contrast, manufacturing growth accelerated to the fastest since July, albeit running behind that of services for the ninth month running.
The widening spread of the Omicron variant led to renewed restrictions (imposed and voluntary) on service sector activity in some economies during December. Manufacturers meanwhile reported that constraints on production had eased, though nonetheless remaining a significant drag.
Global #manufacturing output growth accelerated in December, coming back into line with growth of new orders, as supply constraints eased. Our #PMI wrap up in 10 charts bit.ly/3qRgGwc
While the number of companies worldwide reporting that output was constrained by shortages continued to run at 3.5 times the long-run average in December, this is down from a record peak of 4.7 times the long-run average back in October.
Although still running at a level far in excess of anything seen prior to the pandemic, the average lengthening of supplier delivery times globally eased for a second consecutive month in December to the smallest recorded since March.
UK growth is looking increasingly lop-sided, however, with the upturn led by the services sector, and consumer-facing and hospitality firms in particular driving the expansion for a third month running. In contrast, manufacturing saw production growth slide to near-stagnation.
While the service sector continued to benefit from the opening up of the economy, factories have been besieged by a further worsening of supply chain delays and ongoing staffing issues, as well as falling exports and what appears to have been diversion of spend toward services.
While I was trying (in vain) to find petrol to drive my daughter to London for university tomorrow, a colleague who runs a laundry business told us how he was called to be informed that his lorry load of clean laundry had been deserted at a service station. His driver had been...
... having a break when someone offered to double his pay with a starting bonus if he'd drive for him. An offer too good to refuse, he simply went off leaving my friend in the lurch, a full lorry deserted in a service station. He had to scramble to get his property back. What ...
...an unscrupulous bunch of characters. What a mess this country seems to be in right now.
UK PMIs, including flash September data, charted against Bank of England policy decisions underscores how unusual the current economic situation is, with price pressures accelerating while growth slows. bit.ly/3nXx9in
The further acceleration of price growth will add to concerns that the recent bout of inflation is proving less transitory than many suspected,
but the slowdown in growth is a reminder of the fragility of the recovery while the pandemic remains a disruptive force on the economy.