Thread by @CasMudde

Just did my (one) media interview, which allowed me to gather my thoughts a bit. Here they are. 🧵

#presidentielles2022 #Presidentielles #FrenchElection2022 #France #France2

1. On a personal level, huge relief. Not that I didn't THINK this would happen, but I also thought Brexit and Trump would NOT happen, so...

2. YES, there was MUCH at stake in this election. A Le Pen victory would have thrown France into probably gridlock (cohabitation) and would have been frightening for targeted communities -- irrespective of which actual policies would have followed.

3. At least as important, it would have paralyzed the EU at a moment that it really needs leadership. France is crucial for EU foreign policy and the Ukraine War has made that even more clear.

4. Now to the numbers: obviously, Macron's victory is much smaller than in 2017. If you take turnout into account, only 41% of the electorate voted for him in 2022 (down from 49% in 2017). And that is in the SECOND round!

5. Probably most important, and missed in many accounts, is that in 2017 #Macron won with a positive message, inspiring many French (and even more Europeans). This is not the case in 2022. It is even more an anti-Le Pen vote.

6. #Macronisme , if it ever existed, is pretty much dead. While Macron himself can still build an impressive legacy in terms of foreign policy, it is very doubtful he can do the same in terms of domestic policy.

7. What is most worrying, as argued before, is that Macron successfully dismantled the core parties of French liberal democracy to create his own "new movement". Now, we have no new élan, no real movement, AND no other liberal democratic parties!

8. The 2022 presidential elections made clear that we had one leader and one party left in France. That leader is ineligible to run again, while that party will still be around.

9. NO, I am NOT saying that "the future is Le Pen." That is simplistic and at best based on shoddy analysis. As I will argue, Le Pen and RN face their own challenges. Moreover, 5 years is a very long period in politics!

10. In the short run, the parliamentary elections are crucial! I am very skeptical that there will be a similar "honeymoon effect" as in 2017. I can only see En Marche get another parliamentary with disastrously low turnout.

11. Much more likely is an extremely fragmented parliament, which will force Macron to build alliances and coalitions. This was his strength in 2017 but people have learned. Moreover, his reputation is not the same anymore and he has an authoritarian leadership style.

12. Incidentally, most of France's problems are not unique, but they are more pronounced than in other EUropean countries -- in part because of the semi-presidential system.

13. THE challenge for Macron is to develop socio-economic policies that are transformative but that profit the younger generations without enticing the oldest generation (which saved him). I have seen little indication of these policies.

14. Crucial to France is that a strong liberal democratic leader emerges ahead of the 2022 presidential elections. Given the state of the various parties, this leader can only emerge from within En Marche or from outside of all parties. Both are highly unlikely.

15. Anyone emerging from with En Marche will be seen as a mini-Macron. Given Macron's mediocre popularity, a mini-Macron will be even less popular. Any outsider will have an incentive to run on a vague and possibly even populist program.

16. So, why is the future not Le Pen? First and foremost, Le Pen failed to win for the third time in a row. Her grip on the party is not the same as her father. This will create dissatisfaction and more open dissent.

17. If the results are correct, she again went down after #LeDebat -- this will strengthen her opponents' argument that SHE is holding the party back.

18. Even a year ago, I would have said that Marion Marechal could be the person to forge a coalition of the "nationalists" and the "conservatives" and create a new "national conservative" party.

19. That scenario seems unrealistic today. She bet on the wrong horse (Zemmour) and has doubled down since (becoming vice-president of that party). I don't see how RN cadres can accept being led by a non-RN politician.

20. At the same time, I cannot see the Zemmour camp, let alone LR's right flank, come together under Marine Le Pen, given her personal reputation and the argument that SHE is the thing that stands in the way of true mainstreaming (major argument for Zemmour camp).

21. But what about Bardella or someone else? There is no clear successor to Marine Le Pen and it is still unclear whether she will step back. Almost anyone with strong support within RN will have close tie to Marine Le Pen and that can be Achilles heel for true mainstreaming.

22. So, where does that leave us for now? Relieved, worried, and confused! As said, the parliamentary elections are going to be crucial, both for the short-term and medium-term future of French party politics.

23. I hope that all the different liberal democratic parties and politicians will respond to the inevitable fragmentation by starting to work towards a positive, united campaign in 2027.

24. Given the history of the center-left in France, and the situation in other countries (eg Hungary), I expect chaos in which big egos and short-term gains will create more antagonism and personal frustrations within the liberal democratic camp.

25. As I don't want to go down the pessimistic rabid hole, and want to hold on to my relief, let me end with a not unimportant side note: the polls were dead on again! #TheEnd

#MerciFrance #HvalaSlovenija 🙏