Cas Mudde 😷 Profile picture
Apr 24 26 tweets 6 min read
Just did my (one) media interview, which allowed me to gather my thoughts a bit. Here they are. 🧵

#presidentielles2022 #Presidentielles #FrenchElection2022 #France #France2
1. On a personal level, huge relief. Not that I didn't THINK this would happen, but I also thought Brexit and Trump would NOT happen, so...
2. YES, there was MUCH at stake in this election. A Le Pen victory would have thrown France into probably gridlock (cohabitation) and would have been frightening for targeted communities -- irrespective of which actual policies would have followed.
3. At least as important, it would have paralyzed the EU at a moment that it really needs leadership. France is crucial for EU foreign policy and the Ukraine War has made that even more clear.
4. Now to the numbers: obviously, Macron's victory is much smaller than in 2017. If you take turnout into account, only 41% of the electorate voted for him in 2022 (down from 49% in 2017). And that is in the SECOND round!
5. Probably most important, and missed in many accounts, is that in 2017 #Macron won with a positive message, inspiring many French (and even more Europeans). This is not the case in 2022. It is even more an anti-Le Pen vote.
6. #Macronisme , if it ever existed, is pretty much dead. While Macron himself can still build an impressive legacy in terms of foreign policy, it is very doubtful he can do the same in terms of domestic policy.
7. What is most worrying, as argued before, is that Macron successfully dismantled the core parties of French liberal democracy to create his own "new movement". Now, we have no new élan, no real movement, AND no other liberal democratic parties!
8. The 2022 presidential elections made clear that we had one leader and one party left in France. That leader is ineligible to run again, while that party will still be around.
9. NO, I am NOT saying that "the future is Le Pen." That is simplistic and at best based on shoddy analysis. As I will argue, Le Pen and RN face their own challenges. Moreover, 5 years is a very long period in politics!
10. In the short run, the parliamentary elections are crucial! I am very skeptical that there will be a similar "honeymoon effect" as in 2017. I can only see En Marche get another parliamentary with disastrously low turnout.
11. Much more likely is an extremely fragmented parliament, which will force Macron to build alliances and coalitions. This was his strength in 2017 but people have learned. Moreover, his reputation is not the same anymore and he has an authoritarian leadership style.
12. Incidentally, most of France's problems are not unique, but they are more pronounced than in other EUropean countries -- in part because of the semi-presidential system.
13. THE challenge for Macron is to develop socio-economic policies that are transformative but that profit the younger generations without enticing the oldest generation (which saved him). I have seen little indication of these policies.
14. Crucial to France is that a strong liberal democratic leader emerges ahead of the 2022 presidential elections. Given the state of the various parties, this leader can only emerge from within En Marche or from outside of all parties. Both are highly unlikely.
15. Anyone emerging from with En Marche will be seen as a mini-Macron. Given Macron's mediocre popularity, a mini-Macron will be even less popular. Any outsider will have an incentive to run on a vague and possibly even populist program.
16. So, why is the future not Le Pen? First and foremost, Le Pen failed to win for the third time in a row. Her grip on the party is not the same as her father. This will create dissatisfaction and more open dissent.
17. If the results are correct, she again went down after #LeDebat -- this will strengthen her opponents' argument that SHE is holding the party back.
18. Even a year ago, I would have said that Marion Marechal could be the person to forge a coalition of the "nationalists" and the "conservatives" and create a new "national conservative" party.
19. That scenario seems unrealistic today. She bet on the wrong horse (Zemmour) and has doubled down since (becoming vice-president of that party). I don't see how RN cadres can accept being led by a non-RN politician.
20. At the same time, I cannot see the Zemmour camp, let alone LR's right flank, come together under Marine Le Pen, given her personal reputation and the argument that SHE is the thing that stands in the way of true mainstreaming (major argument for Zemmour camp).
21. But what about Bardella or someone else? There is no clear successor to Marine Le Pen and it is still unclear whether she will step back. Almost anyone with strong support within RN will have close tie to Marine Le Pen and that can be Achilles heel for true mainstreaming.
22. So, where does that leave us for now? Relieved, worried, and confused! As said, the parliamentary elections are going to be crucial, both for the short-term and medium-term future of French party politics.
23. I hope that all the different liberal democratic parties and politicians will respond to the inevitable fragmentation by starting to work towards a positive, united campaign in 2027.
24. Given the history of the center-left in France, and the situation in other countries (eg Hungary), I expect chaos in which big egos and short-term gains will create more antagonism and personal frustrations within the liberal democratic camp.
25. As I don't want to go down the pessimistic rabid hole, and want to hold on to my relief, let me end with a not unimportant side note: the polls were dead on again! #TheEnd

#MerciFrance #HvalaSlovenija 🙏

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Cas Mudde 😷

Cas Mudde 😷 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @CasMudde

Apr 22
This is an interesting reflection. I also write non-academic books but didn’t experience this kind of pushback —probably because they didn’t really sell (or because I rarely mingle with the Ivy crowd). 😂
I think only thing @jasonintrator is forgetting is that academics are paid to publish “academic” work. I think “trade books” could be complimentary to that but should not replace it. But for academic, these books should build upon academic research, so why not publish that too?
It’s a bit the same as journalists who keep the “juicy bits” for their book rather than publish it in the newspaper that paid them to find those “juicy bits”.
Read 5 tweets
Apr 16
This should not be/remain a local story. There will be many more Kim Morissons soon, across “red” America, while many others will self-censure. Students, schools and whole country will suffer. 🧵…
My state, Georgia, just passed an “anti-CRT” law. Obviously, it is not about Critical Race Theory, it is about racism. More specifically, it is about limiting “racism” to a very specific, personal, ideology, overtly expressed and supported by just a minority of Americans.
The sentiment is perfectly captured in this banner: “Don’t Make Me Into A Racist”.

The assumption is not just, “I” am not racist but that racism is not a real problem (ie limited to a few stereotypical “baddies” everyone can agree on denouncing).
Read 24 tweets
Apr 14
Marine Le Pen refers to her campaign as "optimistic, positive and hopeful".

This is in sharp contrast to dominant portrayal of the far right in media and scholarship as based on "fear", "negativity" and "pessimism". Yet, both can be correct.

A (hopefully very) short thread 🧵
1. Obviously, part of this difference of assessment/opinion is based on ideological difference, which logically leads to different interpretations of positive/negative, optimism/pessimism, and fear/hope.
2. Moreover, and partly related, it is based on the different purposes of these assessments/opinions, i.e. academic qualification or political gain.

But I think there is more.
Read 16 tweets
Apr 10
The main story of the first round of the #FrenchElections2022 is not at the extremes but at the heart of liberal democracy. And it's not a particularly French story, although there are certain French particularities. A speculative thread. 🧵
1. Far right is not big winner. Le Pen gains 2%, which is minimal, while other far right (Zemmour and Dupont-Aignan), get 5% more than D-A got in 2017.

Zemmour's support is part poor given massive media attention for him as well as his support from within mainstream right.
2. This +7% for the combined far right should be seen in the context of the main story of today, the complete implosion of Les Républicains, the mainstream right, which lost 15% (!) compared to 2017.
Read 29 tweets
Apr 10
Exit Poll #franceelection

Macron 28%
Le Pen 23%
Mélenchon 20%
Zemmour 7%
Pécresse 5%

Pretty good for Macron... maybe too good for high turnout in second round.
Candidates of two main parties (Rep+PS) together at 7% 😮

Le Pen +2%, far right 'just' +6% 🙄

More importantly, not much "mainstream right" left to distribute in second round! 🤔

All in all, not bad for Macron. But not too good for French liberal democracy.
Already listening for 5 minutes to a RN MEP talking on @FRANCE24 about the victory of the "Somewheres" over the "Anywheres". I wonder where he got that terminology from. 🤔
Read 5 tweets
Jan 30
If you want to better understand why the 2022 Midterm and 2024 Presidential elections will not be free and fair by design, and why the Republican Party is fundamentally anti-democratic, I've made a shortt selection of (recent) articles from across GOP-dominated states. #thread
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!