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Apr 24 • 40 tweets • 16 min read
Thread 🧵consolidating updates from April 18 – April 24 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together last week

And two weeks ago
Combat Strength
The US most recently assessed Russian combat strength at 75% of what was committed at the beginning of the war. Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength
However, several experts have expressed uncertainty about how those numbers are determined


And have been openly skeptical about the usefulness of combat strength estimates


Including the assertion that the meaning of BTG in the current context may not even be helpful to understand force levels
But agree that Russian combat effectiveness has been significantly reduced


Of an estimated 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) committed by Russia to the invasion, it is believed there are currently between 82 BTGs in Ukraine as Russian moves and reconstitutes its forces
Russian Equipment Manufacturing
In addition to reports of production delays at Russian tank assembly plants


There are now reports of production stoppages at other plants that make MLRS and anti-aircraft systems, among others
Sanctions appear to be beginning to limit the production of precision guided missiles


Russia is reportedly looking for new sources to import semiconductor components from places like Malaysia
Russian manufacturing is also taking significant losses recently, such as this critical factory that produced a significant percentage of Russian solvents and reactives used in other manufacturing processes. This is an under appreciated issue. Great read
Russia has apparently been accepting donations of unusual military accessories from non-government organizations that are fundraising expressly for this purpose


Repositioning
US defence officials have said that they expect Russia wants to move quickly at refitting units that have taken losses
However, the speed with which the Russians are trying to resupply and reposition units may cause these problems: “The Russians have not taken time to refit troops moving from Kyiv or Mariupol before recommitting them to combat operations.”
understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
This part of the analysis was also endorsed by US general Petraeus
linkedin.com/posts/davidpet…
The speed of Russian repositioning of forces has continued to be hampered by problems with rail transport, including apparent sabotage
Captured Equipment
Due to the increasing rate at which we are seeing anecdotal evidence of captured equipment put to use, I will begin to add these figures into my larger thread on available forces, but I will use a conservative estimate of captures suitable for short term reuse
Here is another example of a captured vehicle being upgraded prior to reuse
Repair
There were many updates on repair facilities in last week’s consolidation, so check that if you are interested. The major update for this week is that the Czech Defence Ministry has said that it’s companies will repair Ukrainian heavy equipment
New Equipment for Ukraine
For an effort to keep an ongoing count of equipment supplied to Ukraine see
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answer…

Here is another helpful collection of the data
ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-aga…
As the flow of heavier military equipment committed to Ukraine has increased, we can now begin to follow some of the aggregate statistics
Expert observers have noted that the trajectory of equipment supply to Ukraine and Russia is diverging
We can specifically look at the time series of US military aid to Ukraine


This looks set to increase, as the US has called a conference for April 26 of up to 40 countries to discuss military aid to Ukraine.
Items likely to be discussed at the conference include equipment owned by other countries that are of a type already in use by the Ukrainian military
The US is also considering ways to increase its own weapons manufacturing capacity
defensenews.com/industry/2022/…

and the US House of representatives will vote on the lend-lease bill already approved by the US Senate this week
Russia has continued to protest this supply of military aid to Ukraine
Last week’s update consolidation had many announcements about armoured vehicles and tanks. These are some of the latest similar updates.
Slovak tanks are seen in use



Italian will be sending heavy equipment

The UK will be providing tanks temporarily to Poland in order to permit the transfer of Polish equipment



There has even been increase speculation about soviet designed tanks owned by South Korea
Light armoured vehicles continue to be committed, including APCs from the US state of West Virginia


Stormer anti-aircraft vehicles from the UK
Utility trucks from Estonia


specialized tank transporter trucks from Germany
However, some hoped for transfers are still being delayed, such as a reported Swiss veto on the transfer of ammunition to go along with Marder armoured vehicles

Thanks to these transfers, US defense officials now believe that Ukraine has more tanks available to it within Ukraine than Russia does

A major theme of military aid this week has been the many promises of heavy artillery, including from the UK



Canada
the Netherlands
forbes.com/sites/sebastie…

Belgium
the Czech Republic


France
the US (which will also provide training on its M777s)


Some have suggested that the battle in the Donbas is likely to be the largest artillery battle since world war II
Ukraine has also received promises of several new drones, including new US supplied Phoenix Ghost
breakingdefense.com/2022/04/meet-p…

the UK supplied Warmate drone

The German made Vector from manufacturer Quantum



Ukraine also received aircraft parts that are believed to be able to make up to 20 more planes operational
Training of Ukrainian personnel
The primary update on training Ukrainian personnel was the noted US training on artillery systems. See last week’s update for several previous training announcements
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More from @HelloMrBond

Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 25
April 24 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates Image
I have decided to include a graphic with a more complete picture of my spreadsheet, as there are now columns for captured equipment and military aid. In order to allow people to follow the process. I’m working out the best way to present this. Please excuse the graphics quality Image
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 33.2(7) vs 7.6
Armor 45.5(9.5) vs 11.7
Tanks 45(16.6) vs 14.2
Artillery 14.3(4) vs 3.6
Aircraft 7.3(1.7) vs 15.2
Helicopters 15(3.7) vs 10.9
Read 68 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 17
April 17 Full update to thread 🧵 on estimates of #Russia and #Ukraine losses compared to available forces, using RU and UKR claims along with the best available #OSINT observations and estimates
Summary
OSINT % losses of Russian Committed (Russian total) vs Ukrainian total
Personnel 32.1(6.8) vs 10.4
Armor 41(8.6) vs 11.4
Tanks 42.2(15.3) vs 14.5
Artillery 13.8(3.9) vs 3.5
Aircraft 6.4(1.5) vs 13.6
Helicopters 14.2(3.5) vs 8.7
Read 59 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 17
Thread 🧵consolidating updates from April 11 – April 17 on the large scale unit repositioning and resupply efforts ongoing in Ukraine. This thread will be incorporated into my primary thread on combat losses, which will be linked at the bottom once complete
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together last week
Combat Strength
On April 8 US estimated that Russia retains 80-85% combat strength


On April 12 this was updated to be just over 80%
Read 31 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 15
Were there #nuclear weapons on the #Moskva? Unravelling a game of telephone.

It starts with this tweet from an account that bills itself as belonging to a “Data & Covid expert”. It cites BlackSeaNews as saying “Moskva was equipped with 2 nuclear warheads”.
The BlackSeaNews is an often cited source on events in the Black Sea

blackseanews.net

The linked Facebook account has no recent posts that mention nuclear warheads on the Moskva
However, the account of Andrii Klymenko, the co-founder of the BlackSeaNews, had a post saying “there are 2 nuclear warheads… on board of the Russian Federation Moscow”. The seriousness of this is clear by the statement that it is a matter for the UN and IAEA (MAGATE in Russian)
Read 10 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 14
UK-Dutch natural gas pipeline as background for the discussion in the space

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBL_Pipel…
The main shareholder of the company is Gasunie with 60%, and Uniper and Fluxys both own 20%. Gazprom had an option for 9%, in exchange for a 9% share of Nord Stream AG. The BBL Pipeline would allow Gazprom to supply gas to the British market via the Nord Stream pipeline
“The pipeline has a regulatory exemption from the two-ways gas flow until October 2018. Until this, the direction of gas flow is from the Netherlands to the UK”
Read 5 tweets
Michael Bond Profile picture
Apr 11
Ukraine: Personnel 6/
RU claim
30,500* (14,000; 16,000; 500 POW)(KIA; wounded; POW)
30,500/196,600 = 15.5%  
*not updated since Mar 25
 
My evaluation is 4,500 Ukrainian KIA and 3x that wounded
OS 18,500 (4,500; x3=13,500; 500(per RU)) (KIA; wounded; POW)
18,500/196,600 = 9.4%
Ukraine: Aircraft 
RU claim 127/125 = 100+%
OS Photo 15/125 = 12%  
OS Expert* 70/125 = 56%
*‘roughly 55 fighter jets’, quoting Dave Deptula, of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies  nytimes.com/2022/03/22/wor…
IISS states 125 combat capable jets, implying a loss of 70 jets
Helicopters
Note that the OS percentage loss of Russian helicopters has actually declined since last week. This appears to be due to a reclassification of certain losses by the OSINT analysis source that I rely on
Read 10 tweets

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