#Bulgaria and #Poland confirmed the suspension of #Russian gas supplies from 27.04.2022 after the countries refused to pay for deliveries in rubles.
Here is the immediate and slightly longer-term supply outlook for both as well as the region. /1
Poland:
Russian Yamal contract to expire Dec 2022. Wasn't going to be renewed.
The 10bcm/year Baltic Pipeline supplying NO gas to PL to be commissioned 1 Oct 2022.
Swinoujscie terminal cap to rise from 5bcm/y (2022) ->8.3bcm in 2024.
2 LNG cargoes to arrive 28/30.04 /2
Bulgaria:
Russian LTC contract to expire Dec 2022. Wasn't going to be renewed.
Interconnector GR-BG (IGB) to be commissioned second half of 2022.
Immediate likely supplies from AGSC 1bcm/year deal, Chiren UGS, Greece LNG and RO-BG link.
1LNG Egypt cargo due in GR. 1.05 /3
SEE region
Romania:
Does not off-take Russian gas in summer. Supply outlook - very tight.
Moldova:
Paid for March/partial April deliveries on 20.04
N. Macedonia/Serbia
Likely to have paid in rubles.
Greece:
Unknown. /Ends.
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Before wrapping up for the weekend, a small tribute to Patrick Leigh Fermor, perhaps the greatest travel writer of all times, who would have had his birthday today. (1)
All his books are superb, his knowledge of history and elegant use of the English language are simply breathtaking but I never cease to be bewitched by his description of Ada Kaleh, a a fairy tale-like island in the middle of the Danube (2).
Ada Kaleh had been inhabited by the descendants of Sultan Bayazid I’s soldiers, lingering on as a forgotten corner of the Ottoman world until 1970s when it was submerged by Romania’s communist regime to build a large hydro dam. Another magic place destroyed by communism. (3)
#Turkish gas demand has been falling from Jan's 287mcm/d record but is still controlled by a curtailment order to gas plants. It appears #BOTAS is off-taking around 5mcm/day of spot Azeri gas on top of usual Azeri DCQ of ~17mcm/d (TANAP) and (I think) 7mcm/d (Turkgozu).(1)
#Turkish branch of #SOCAR may also be off-taking 4mcm/day (according to EPDK capacity bookings for Feb). #Russian off-takes at TS1 around 42mcm/d (this includes BOTAS/some independents). (2)
#BOTAS your willingness to publish gas storage data would be greatly appreciated by the market and yours truly. Thank you in advance (3)