The @AtlanticCouncil gathered a number #Romanian speakers @GuvernulRo, @MAERomania to discuss the country's regional importance.
A legitimate topic, but let's unpack some of the claims made by the speakers /1 ‘Romania is working to integrate regional markets and move away from Russian gas.’ If that is the case, can the speakers guarantee that the latest import contract signed by @RomgazRomania with Azerbaijan excludes Russian-origin gas?/2

A thread on the #Romanian electricity/gas markets, which are becoming an increasing concern for the region : /1 The Romanian gov adopted a 98% tax on electricity/gas trading and a 100% on electricity exports which are due on 25 October. If not scrapped, they would wipe out wholesale trading and endanger security of supply, as suggested by GEN-I in this interview /2

Energy companies are braced for the collapse of the #Romanian electricity and gas markets and a supply blackout after the government introduced a series of punishing taxes./1 As of 1 September, electricity and gas traders will have to pay a 98% tax on net revenues. The tax is in place for a year and will have to be paid both by resident and non-resident companies./2

I had the pleasure of interviewing Dr. Timm Kehler, chairman of Germany's Zukunft Gas, the industry's lobby group.
A few takeaways from this very important discussion: 1. #Germany may be days away from reaching a gas price level where trading may not be sustainable anymore, prompting the government to raise the alert level to emergency, which, in turn, would lead to gas rationing.

I never cease to wonder how some European think-tankers are always more inclined to write Turkey off as an energy partner than to make an effort to find joint interests, particularly now when ever single opportunity that shifts markets away from Russian gas is important/1 In this report, #Germany’s @SWPBerlin insists energy cooperation based on fossil fuels, especially natural gas, was not in the interest of Europe and Turkey. 2 swp-berlin.org/publications/p…

#Bulgaria and #Poland confirmed the suspension of #Russian gas supplies from 27.04.2022 after the countries refused to pay for deliveries in rubles.
Here is the immediate and slightly longer-term supply outlook for both as well as the region. /1 Poland:
Russian Yamal contract to expire Dec 2022. Wasn't going to be renewed.

The 10bcm/year Baltic Pipeline supplying NO gas to PL to be commissioned 1 Oct 2022.

Swinoujscie terminal cap to rise from 5bcm/y (2022) ->8.3bcm in 2024.

2 LNG cargoes to arrive 28/30.04 /2

Before wrapping up for the weekend, a small tribute to Patrick Leigh Fermor, perhaps the greatest travel writer of all times, who would have had his birthday today. (1) All his books are superb, his knowledge of history and elegant use of the English language are simply breathtaking but I never cease to be bewitched by his description of Ada Kaleh, a a fairy tale-like island in the middle of the Danube (2).

#Turkish gas demand has been falling from Jan's 287mcm/d record but is still controlled by a curtailment order to gas plants. It appears #BOTAS is off-taking around 5mcm/day of spot Azeri gas on top of usual Azeri DCQ of ~17mcm/d (TANAP) and (I think) 7mcm/d (Turkgozu).(1) #Turkish branch of #SOCAR may also be off-taking 4mcm/day (according to EPDK capacity bookings for Feb). #Russian off-takes at TS1 around 42mcm/d (this includes BOTAS/some independents). (2)