Dave Keating Profile picture
Apr 29 6 tweets 3 min read
The #ConferenceOnTheFutureOfEurope ends tomorrow with a final plenary adopting recommendations for changing 🇪🇺

The process has been marred by institutional infighting, lack of attention and lowered expectations because leaders are scared of treaty change. futureu.europa.eu/?locale=en
The original idea was to be something like the EU constitutional convention of 2003, with a greater emphasis on ground-up citizen involvement.

But national leaders, still scarred by the constitution-turned-treaty experience of 2005-09, nixed both C words. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conventio…
Instead we got a new C word, a "conference".

From the start, the exercise had to move forward a year ago with one hand tied behind its back. Once it started having problems, Macron - who had come up with the idea - effectively abandoned his baby.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conferenc…
We were expecting recs to be ignored. But a lot's changed over the past year.

Now that there's momentum for ambitious 🇪🇺changes because of the Russian invasion, could de facto EU leader Macron decide to embrace recommendations and push for treaty change?
worldpoliticsreview.com/trend-lines/30…
Despite the best efforts of the Council to discourage them from doing so, the members of the Conference are recommending things that would require treaty change.

These include the right of initiative for the European Parliament and ending the remaining national veto abilities.
The Ukraine War has changed the equation in a lot of areas.

The timing of the adoption of #COFE recommendations could suddenly thrust this exercise into the spotlight and serve as the basis for Macron-initiated 🇪🇺 treaty change.

Watch this space.

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More from @DaveKeating

Apr 29
They’ve just announced that they’re doing a 🇧🇪Belgian version of the hit US show Drag Race (in French).

I’m very curious to see how it will differ from the 🇫🇷France version that’s about to air. Will probably a bit like the Canadian version’s relationship with the US show.
Some questions:

🇫🇷👸: Will they allow queens from France to compete or will that be a no-go like 🇨🇦 show with Americans?

🇧🇪👸: Will Flemish queens agree to be in a series in French? Or will they make it bilingual?

🇪🇺👸: Might they try to make this the first international cast?
#RuPaulsDragRace is now a global empire, with versions in 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇳🇱🇬🇧🇪🇸🇮🇹🇫🇷🇹🇭🇦🇺🇳🇿🇸🇪🇧🇪.

IMHO the best international version has been 🇪🇸 because it’s not at all derivative of the 🇺🇸 show.

They did an international All Stars show in 🇬🇧 but it was laughably Anglo-centric.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 20
The 1st and only debate between President #EmmanuelMacron and far-right challenger #MarineLePen in the #presidentielles2022 campaign is about to start.

Watch it live, in English, here:
#LePen had a disastrous performance in her debate with #Macron in 2017. She needs to hit it out of the park tonight to change the momentum now.

There was a brief moment at the 1st round where the gap between them was narrowing, but since then the momentum has been with Macron. Image
#LePen has drawn the right to speak first.

"I will be the president of justice," she says. "Brotherhood is what bonds the French people together. We need to rally around a collective platform" Image
Read 48 tweets
Apr 20
🇪🇺Council President @CharlesMichel giving a press conference with 🇺🇦President @ZelenskyyUa now in #Kyiv.

Zelensky says he personally appreciates Michel’s visit despite the security challenges.
video.consilium.europa.eu/event/en/25730 Image
Zelensky: “On 🇪🇺 membership we have discussed that this is a priority for our country.”

“We are waiting, we have answered the questionnaire. So we are waiting on the meeting on this very important issue for our country” Image
🇪🇺Council President Michel: “This morning I went to #Borodyanka to see the situation with my own eyes. There are no words to explain what I feel… these are atrocities, war crimes”

“It must be punished. They must pay for what they have done there any in many other cities in 🇺🇦” Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 13
🇸🇪#Sweden and 🇫🇮#Finland's prime ministers have just held a joint press conference outlining plans to join #NATO.

🇫🇮 expected to move first. PM Marin says she won't give a timetable but "it will happen quite fast—within weeks, not within months, we will have the discussion"
🇫🇮&🇸🇪"will deliver decisions independently" says Marin. Assumption has always been 🇸🇪 can't join unless 🇫🇮 does 1st.

"Of course...I would prefer that we would make the similar kinds of choices for the whole region—but it's up to Sweden to decide for yourself"
Sweden's SvD reports that the ruling Social Democrats have already decided to apply for NATO membership (but must wait for Finland to decide to do so first), and will submit the application at the Madrid summit at end of June.
svd.se/a/Wj5gW2/uppgi…
Read 8 tweets
Apr 10
BREAKING: #Macron beats #LePen in French #presidentielles2022 first round election.

A larger spread than 2017. Image
These are exit polls so the actual result we'll know in time, but we know that for sure it will be Macron and Le Pen in the 2nd round.

It's also the worst performance ever for a Socialist Party candidate, according to the exit polls. Image
The full results from the 8pm projection, which has historically proven to end up being accurate.

It is the worst result in history for both the 'big tent' mainsteam parties - the Socialists and the Gaulists.

It is (I think?) the highest vote in history for the far-left. Image
Read 13 tweets
Apr 8
It’s really feeling like the 🇩🇪🇦🇹 position against an 🇪🇺ban on #RussianOil is no longer tenable, and they know it.

Feeling in Brussels right now is: these two demanded drastic sacrifice in 🇵🇹🇮🇪🇬🇷🇪🇸 after mistakes were made there. 🇩🇪🇦🇹 must make sacrifices now for greater good.
The counter-argument is that the negative economic effects of an oil embargo wouldn’t just effect 🇩🇪🇦🇹, they would effect all of 🇪🇺 by destabilising the economy and causing energy prices to surge.

But you can understand why 🇵🇹🇮🇪🇬🇷🇪🇸 are sceptical of such contagion arguments.
Even if 🇩🇪🇦🇹 agree a #RussianOil ban (which would necessarily need to have a long phase-in) the remaining question is 🇭🇺.

#Orban still says he’ll veto any ban on 🇷🇺 oil or gas. Would he risk destroying his alliance with 🇵🇱 for that? Would 🇩🇪🇦🇹 be happy to hide behind his veto?
Read 5 tweets

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