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Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

Apr 29

The #ConferenceOnTheFutureOfEurope ends tomorrow with a final plenary adopting recommendations for changing 🇪🇺

The process has been marred by institutional infighting, lack of attention and lowered expectations because leaders are scared of treaty change. futureu.europa.eu/?locale=en

The original idea was to be something like the EU constitutional convention of 2003, with a greater emphasis on ground-up citizen involvement.

But national leaders, still scarred by the constitution-turned-treaty experience of 2005-09, nixed both C words. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conventio…

Instead we got a new C word, a "conference".

From the start, the exercise had to move forward a year ago with one hand tied behind its back. Once it started having problems, Macron - who had come up with the idea - effectively abandoned his baby.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conferenc…

Read 6 tweets

Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

Apr 20

The 1st and only debate between President #EmmanuelMacron and far-right challenger #MarineLePen in the #presidentielles2022 campaign is about to start.

Watch it live, in English, here:

#LePen had a disastrous performance in her debate with #Macron in 2017. She needs to hit it out of the park tonight to change the momentum now.

There was a brief moment at the 1st round where the gap between them was narrowing, but since then the momentum has been with Macron.

#LePen has drawn the right to speak first.

"I will be the president of justice," she says. "Brotherhood is what bonds the French people together. We need to rally around a collective platform"

Read 48 tweets

Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

Apr 20

@CharlesMichel

🇪🇺Council President @CharlesMichel giving a press conference with 🇺🇦President @ZelenskyyUa now in #Kyiv.

Zelensky says he personally appreciates Michel’s visit despite the security challenges.
video.consilium.europa.eu/event/en/25730

Zelensky: “On 🇪🇺 membership we have discussed that this is a priority for our country.”

“We are waiting, we have answered the questionnaire. So we are waiting on the meeting on this very important issue for our country”

🇪🇺Council President Michel: “This morning I went to #Borodyanka to see the situation with my own eyes. There are no words to explain what I feel… these are atrocities, war crimes”

“It must be punished. They must pay for what they have done there any in many other cities in 🇺🇦”

Read 8 tweets

Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

Apr 13

🇸🇪#Sweden and 🇫🇮#Finland's prime ministers have just held a joint press conference outlining plans to join #NATO.

🇫🇮 expected to move first. PM Marin says she won't give a timetable but "it will happen quite fast—within weeks, not within months, we will have the discussion"

🇫🇮&🇸🇪"will deliver decisions independently" says Marin. Assumption has always been 🇸🇪 can't join unless 🇫🇮 does 1st.

"Of course...I would prefer that we would make the similar kinds of choices for the whole region—but it's up to Sweden to decide for yourself"

Sweden's SvD reports that the ruling Social Democrats have already decided to apply for NATO membership (but must wait for Finland to decide to do so first), and will submit the application at the Madrid summit at end of June.
svd.se/a/Wj5gW2/uppgi…

Read 8 tweets

Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

Apr 10

BREAKING: #Macron beats #LePen in French #presidentielles2022 first round election.

A larger spread than 2017.

These are exit polls so the actual result we'll know in time, but we know that for sure it will be Macron and Le Pen in the 2nd round.

It's also the worst performance ever for a Socialist Party candidate, according to the exit polls.

The full results from the 8pm projection, which has historically proven to end up being accurate.

It is the worst result in history for both the 'big tent' mainsteam parties - the Socialists and the Gaulists.

It is (I think?) the highest vote in history for the far-left.

Read 13 tweets

Dave Keating

@DaveKeating

Apr 8

It’s really feeling like the 🇩🇪🇦🇹 position against an 🇪🇺ban on #RussianOil is no longer tenable, and they know it.

Feeling in Brussels right now is: these two demanded drastic sacrifice in 🇵🇹🇮🇪🇬🇷🇪🇸 after mistakes were made there. 🇩🇪🇦🇹 must make sacrifices now for greater good.

The counter-argument is that the negative economic effects of an oil embargo wouldn’t just effect 🇩🇪🇦🇹, they would effect all of 🇪🇺 by destabilising the economy and causing energy prices to surge.

But you can understand why 🇵🇹🇮🇪🇬🇷🇪🇸 are sceptical of such contagion arguments.

Even if 🇩🇪🇦🇹 agree a #RussianOil ban (which would necessarily need to have a long phase-in) the remaining question is 🇭🇺.

#Orban still says he’ll veto any ban on 🇷🇺 oil or gas. Would he risk destroying his alliance with 🇵🇱 for that? Would 🇩🇪🇦🇹 be happy to hide behind his veto?

Read 5 tweets

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