Thread by @ydnad0

Anatomy of a near disaster. What happened to @flyspicejet Flight 945 which resulted in severe passenger injuries and damage to the aircraft? I am a #SpaceWeather guy but here's a thread of my analysis on weather closer to home for @DGCAIndia + @JM_Scindia
hindustantimes.com/india-news/dgc…

Flight 945 took off from Mumbai around 5.00 pm en route to the Kazi Nazrul Islam Airport just North-West of steel city Durgapur (see gmaps 👇🏾). Whilst landing around 7.30 pm it was hit by what is being reported as extreme turbulence. Autopilot disengaged, all hell broke lose.

Below are flight tracker map of the Mumbai Durgapur air route taken by Flight 945 + thunderstorm archival data from the weather and radar app roughly corresponding to the time of landing of the aircraft. It flew straight into an intense localised storm, the famous Nor'wester!

There was a terrific wind rising associated with rapid pressure variations (👇🏾left) around the time of landing at Durgapur. In fact India Met Office anticipated severe lightning activity in that region.
Data (left) visualcrossing.com/weather-histor…
Data (right)
@Indiametdept

Nor'westers or Kalbaisakhi as we call them locally (they come in the month of Baisakh), are intense, rapidly moving storms accompanied by heavy rain + lightning + strong wind gusts. They bring relief to our summer scorched souls but they r also dangerous!
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nor%27wes….

You, never, ever should fly in to a Nor'wester. @flyspicejet Flight 945 did.

Recall again the flight path I reconstructed from the flight tracker, shown here in red. Was this a lack of weather intelligence, or ignoring the weather info, or prioritising fuel cost over safety?

Is there efficient coordination + flow of information from @Indiametdept to @DGCAIndia to flight operators and to pilots. Do they have clear operating instructions to avoid storms or do they have some leverage in taking a call, which they should not! Are they weather-wise?

In fact, my good friend @DipanjanOnline, co-founder and CEO of @hxkart was in another @IndiGo6E flight at the same time from Mumbai to Kolkata. That flight also was headed into trouble but the pilot decided to divert ro Guwahati. He says this.

What do the Americans do when they confront a similar localised but intense storm activity which are always associated with air turbulence. They go around it! See this cool tracker map. More fuel, higher operating costs but valuing life over money.

https://twitter.com/JosephPattonWx/status/1514651179539701764?t=40EKq14tk9H2H7ip4C9rdQ&s=19

When I shared my analysis with @DipanjanOnline and we were trying to make sense of this, he said something which stuck (quoted with permission!). This is sadly the truth of living in a nation where lack of safety has no high cost associated with it for the corporations + govt.

Anyway I call for better coordination between @Indiametdept @moesgoi @DGCAIndia, various airline operators and pilots. i ask that you be weather aware and prioritise life and safety over a few extra hours or a few extra bucks.
@rajeevan61 @DrJitendraSingh

I see many news outlets have picked up on my tweets. I caution that a precise determination of what led to the severe turbulence impact on the @flyspicejet Flight 945 must depend on a more quantitative investigation by @DGCAIndia. So don't blame anyone before that concludes.

Remember that in the immediate aftermath of the crash of the Lion Air Flight 610 (Boeing Max 737), aspersions were cast on the pilots. Later it emerged the problem was with a malfunctioning sensor and the aircraft models' automated Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System!

That the spicejet flight flew into a major turbulence zone could have been due to a variety of factors which may or may not have involved human error, instrument error, insufficient weather intelligence or a bad operational choice. Only a serious investigation can isolate cause.