Thread by @ShovelStocks

#Uranium: It’s different this time?
Some thoughts on why I think that taking the last uranium bull market too literally will likely lead to missing out on returns during the most lucrative time in the cycle. However, cyclicality still applies and scaling in & out is important 🧵

1/ “It’s different this time” are regarded as the most dangerous words in #finance used by Wall Street to trick investors into bubble equities that they should sell, not buy. #fintwit

2/ I list some reasons below why #uranium might very well be the exception to the rule and really be different this time. Moreover, I believe focusing on the last uranium bull run 04-07 will lead to false analysis ➡️ missing out on gains

3/ Inflation climbed to 8.5% a level that was not present during the last bullrun. It will accelerate the rotation out of bonds into commodities which will have an epic effect on sector @finding_finance has great content on this topic
theguardian.com/business/2022/…

4/ Social Media = game changer. Retail is educated, can instantly exchange information, frontrun institutions. I also doubt that in 04 a small #uranium niche media publication that might've covered uranium had more than 50K readers @quakes99 has +57K followers & growing

5/ #SPUT $U.un there never was a physical #uranium fund with an ATM that can constantly raise cash & horde physical U that would be the demand of an entire country + @Sprott runs $URNM via which institutions can invest in uranium & passive ETF flows bid up the equities

6/ M&A: Last cycle buyers were limited to major commodity companies & integrated companies like Orano. Big oil/energy companies are at the start of a major transformation and are investing in carbon capture tech but also nuclear and fusion tech ⬇️

7/ For example Chevron technology ventures
chevron.com/technology/tec… invested in Zap Energy - modular fusion.

In 2021 ExxonMobil had net income of $ 23bn & Cash flow $ 51bn. Financing a 5-10bn #uranium project acquisition should not be a challenge for such companies

8/ To conclude, based on the above I believe #uranium equity valuations will go much higher this time. @U_Ag_ gives great examples of valuations from last cycle compared to today's situation in this video

end/ Don't take what happened last cycle too strict, valuations will likely be higher this time. It's still a cyclical market: Scale in over time & scale out. Don't try to pick the bottom/top.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"