BREAKING—US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has just tested positive for #COVID19. He recently attended the @whca dinner event with 2600+ people, where reporters from many media outlets have also now tested positive. ➡️ This Vf headline was on point. #WHCD#COVIDisAirborne
2) We epidemiologists and aerosol scientists have warned about the poor ventilation and high density being a bad setup for almost guaranteed transmission at @whca dinner if anyone in the audience had subclinical (undetected) virus. And indeed the superspreading event happened.
3) ’The nation’s most distinguished super spreader event’. @Trevornoah was spot on in his opening lines of his #WHCD speech.
4) Scientists had live updates of the CO2 levels in the the #WHCD ballroom the entire evening thanks to @nalticx’s volunteer who brought this digital CO2 meter. Anything over 1500+ ppm is really really bad ventilation.
5) In public health, there is an old joke saying— “The solution to pollution is dilution…” or ventilation. And #WHCD’s ventilation levels, indexed by CO2 levels measured by @nalticx’s attendee volunteer, was horrible no good very very bad!!! Normal outdoors is ~400. HT @JusDayDa
6) here is what happened—CO2 first rose in a private suite…. Then they exited the suite to goto the hallway before the ballroom. Then at 8pm, CO2 levels started spiking in @HiltonWash ballroom once everyone entered. And it stayed high ~2 hours except for a break.
7) Also, cases now discovered because symptom onset from Omicron can take time—see outbreak chart from an infamous Christmas Party event in Norway of 117 people. The WHCD meanwhile is a high density ballroom of 2600 people for 2 hours + many after parties. eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…
8) some will desperately try to downplay the #WHCD outbreak. But the fact of the matter is that people are still dying of COVID. And being hospitalized and getting #LongCovid which will burden healthcare system for years.
9) the sheer size of the #WHCD superspreading outbreak is growing. I’ve learned of a couple more reporters who got it. It spans across all the outlets. So it doesn’t seem to be from any single after party. nytimes.com/2022/05/04/us/…
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The CDC is investigating 109 pediatric cases of unexplained severe #hepatitis—acute liver inflammation. 90% of these kids have been hospitalized, several needed liver transplants, and 5 have died to date. Still unclear if Adenovirus 41 or COVID or other.🧵 cnn.com/2022/05/06/hea…
2) Nearly all the children -- more than 90% -- needed to be hospitalized.
Dr. Jay Butler, the CDC's deputy director of infectious diseases stressed that the investigation -- a partnership between the CDC and state health departments -- is an evolving situation.
3) Not all the hepatitis cases they are studying now may ultimately be caused by the same thing.
"We are casting a wide net to help broaden our understanding," Butler said.
⚠️OMICRON IS NOT MILDER—Huge study by Harvard scientists finds #Omicron variant is **not intrinsically milder**, in a study of 130,000 people. "We found that the risks of #COVID19 hospitalization & mortality were nearly identical”—just as my team warned.🧵 reuters.com/business/healt…
2) The new study, based on records of 130,000 COVID patients in Massachusetts, is unique and "pretty strong," said Dr. Arjun Venkatesh of Yale School of Medicine and the Yale Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, who was not involved in the research.
3) Rather than just looking at numbers of deaths and hospitalizations, as earlier studies have done, it **accounted for patients' vaccination status and medical risk factors** and compared similar groups of people, Venkatesh said.
NEW—FDA has issued remarks about Paxlovid and the recurrence / rebound 🏀 of positive #COVID19 after a negative. FDA admits it definitely happens but claims it’s only 1-2% with rebound in the trials, & no clinical guidance change. But I count more than 1%. fda.gov/drugs/news-eve…
2) Based on lay reports Im hearing everywhere, it’s seems way more than 1-2% having a rebound positive after taking Paxlovid. A lot more.
3) Im originally trained as a clinical epidemiologist, and evaluating clinical data. And the sheer volume of reports Im seeing, it can’t possibly by just 1-2% rebound. Just eyeballing the figure from this Pfizer charge shows way more than 1-2% with a rebound of viral load.
2) What is excess deaths? It’s the excess above the average per capita mortality rate across 2015-2019. It’s how many more people have died above historical rates. It captures COVID and indirectly those who also died because they couldn’t reach the hospital in time.
3) most of the excess deaths are #COVID19. And the CDC acknowledges others are due to people delaying their care because of COVID’s hospital surge and crush on the healthcare system. That’s equally tragic, and indirectly also COVID caused.
Story from a Paxlovid user—@RossR8 was positive to til 6, tested negative days 7-12. Doctor said he’s not contagious anymore—he didn’t buy that because of Paxlovid rebound🏀 risk. He tests positive again on day 13 & symptomatic—thankfully protects his pregnant wife from #COVID19!
2) We have known about Paxlovid rebound risk for a while. I warned about it before. I took Paxlovid too after my April COVID had suffered a 1-day symptomatic rebound myself. Pfizer data submitted to the FDA quietly warned about it too on days 10-14!
3) I specifically warned about rebound not because it is severe (it’s likely not because Paxlovid is a really good 90% hospitalization risk reduction drug), but because rebound could trigger another outbreak once someone is complacent.
Let this sink in—“The republicans who said ‘my body my choice over the COVID vaccine’ now say I have no control over my body (to not be forced to give birth to baby of a rapist)”. Let that hypocrisy sink in.