I've been studying #Bayesian methods in #rstats since the beginning of this year.

The more I learn, the more excited I get about Bayesian.

Here's why... Image
One of the key R packages I've been experimenting with is BRMS (Bayesian Regression Models using Stan).

BRMS allows us to model a wide range of statistical models including:

- linear,
- count data,
- survival,
- multi-effects,
- non-linear (& more!)
The important point is that Bayesian modeling implements a special technique called Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).

MCMC is a game changer.
MCMC is a sampling technique that samples from a probability distribution.

By sampling, we can get close to the true distribution.

Making it possible to better estimate the probability surrounding the prediction.
Example of MCMC matching a distribution. 👇

Source: wikipedia Image
I'll be showing off what you can do with BRMS + MCMC for Business Analysis during my next learning lab (free webinar).

I'll have a full code demonstration showing my most important use #Business Use-Cases for how Bayesian can help.

Register Here: bit.ly/Bayes100 Image

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More from @mdancho84

May 7
#SQL from #R is insane. Here’s why. 1/6

Image Credit: @yutannihilat_en

#rstats Image
2/6 Thanks to Hiroaki Yutani for putting this amazing example together.

This small example demonstrates how you can learn R and automatically use SQL.
3/6 Under the hood, the dbplyr library converts R’s tidyverse syntax to SQL

So we don’t need to memorize the SQL translation.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 6
My biggest mistakes were never my insights. They were in over-confidence.

An #rstats + #bayesian 🧵
2/n In business, I've made great regression models that have predicted how much sales we were going to make.

In fact, this helped me increase revenue from $3M to $15,000,000 per year at one of the companies I worked at.

BUT my models were NOT perfect.
3/n In fact, I'd argue that the BIGGEST flops were due to over-confidence.

Believing my model was better than it actually was.

Here's what hurt me...
Read 6 tweets
Apr 4
The james bond of data science.

I saw this post from @v_vashishta who described the JB of DS as someone who's resume makes recruiters cry, can cook Michelin 3 start meals with 1 hand, & run an entire #datascience team with the other...

A #rstats #python 🧵 Image
2/n

It's funny, because it's true! Job descriptions perpetuate this unicorn.

BUT, here's the cold hard facts:

1. You don't need to be a unicorn. In fact trying to become one will hurt your progress.
3/n

2. You don't need a PhD degree. In fact most of my students don't have computer science backgrounds. YET, they are getting jobs at Apple, Microsoft, Google...
Read 8 tweets
Mar 7
People are shocked when they learn that I picked #R over Python. It’s a true story.

I began learning data science with Python. This decision actually cost me 2-months and caused me to quit data science for a little bit.

Why? (a 🧵)
#rstats Image
2/n Python was too much like coding. And I came from a business background. My main tool was Excel. Python was unnatural.

A friend of mine recommended me to try #R.

I was instantly surprised at how much more intuitive it was for me given my Excel background. Here's what R had:
3/n
👉#R has functions just like #Excel. I could quickly summarize my data using mean(), sd(), sum(), and friends. These functions were very similar to AVERAGE(), STDEV(), and SUM() from Excel.
Read 8 tweets

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