1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 67-72. The past 6 days has seen Ukrainian forces execute a limited counteroffensive north & northeast of Kharkiv that has produced significant results. Russian forces continue to struggle to gain ground from Izium to Popasna. #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine 
2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for east Ukraine shows temps (16-24 C) will continue to slowly dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement. However, mud still restricts movement to roads. Rain & cloud cover slightly degrades air & UAV operations.
3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine’s limited counteroffensive of 02-05 May north & NE of Kharkiv threatens to push Russian forces back across the border into Belgorod. Russian forces in the Kharkiv OD are to spread out and weak to reverse recent Ukrainian gains. #Kharkiv
4/ Russia cannot afford another major defeat and will likely have to repurpose reinforcements designated to the Main Effort along the Siverskyi Donets Line between Izium & Popasna or pull units from that direction to stabilize defensives in the Kharkiv OD.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1522880052379193344?s=20&t=jRbLVjZgCGAvJvoI5VyzCA
5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces continue to struggle to achieve a general breakthrough along the Siverskyi Donets Line between Izium and Popasna. Along the Izium Axis Russian forces are stalled, unable to gain ground against Ukrainian hasty defensive positions. #izium
6/ Russian command posts remain vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. Russian C2 nodes are not nimble, lack proper concealment, and struggle to mask their electronic signature. Ukraine targets Russian C2 nodes with great effect, crippling their ability to exercise command of forces.
7/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian forces are focusing artillery and air strikes in support of limited assaults on Orikhiv, Huilaipole, and Velyka Novosilka. The Ukrainian General Staff estimates the main Russia objective in the Zaporizhzhia OD is Orikhiv. #Zaporizhzhia #Melitopol
8/ Orikhiv sits at the crossroads of several major roads and is a vital point of communication for an advance on Zaporizhzhia. It is likely that units still refiting and reorganizing from the Siege of Mariupol may be committed here in the coming days.
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1522590102643486725?s=20&t=jRbLVjZgCGAvJvoI5VyzCA
9/ Azovstal (Mariupol). On 03 May Russian forces resumed their assault on the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone. Intense air and artillery strikes supported ground assaults which made minimal gains resulting in Russian troops entering the Azovstal complex for the first time. #Azovstal
10/ Azovstal still stands. Given the reduced number of Russian troops available for operations against the Azovstal Complex, Russian forces will continue to rely on siege tactics and massed air and artillery strikes to reduce Ukrainian resistance.
https://twitter.com/avalaina/status/1522276822100193283?s=20&t=s6I-uAbGMHd7hPVQgTRzZA
11/ Odesa-Kherson OD. There has been little activity in the Kherson-Odesa OD. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces continue to reinforce forward positions for a likely resumption of offensive operations to secure the northern and NW Kherson Oblast borders.
12/ It is assessed Russian occupation authorities will move forward with an illegitimate referendum to create the KPR. Ukrainian intelligence surmises false-flag incidents in Transnistria are intended to fix Ukrainian forces in Odesa to prevent their support to other operations.
13/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS air sorties remain steady at 300 in a 24-hour period. The focus of these sorties is on the interdiction of western aid supplies moving from west Ukraine to the front lines. These strikes have largely been ineffective.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1521553627885842438?s=20&t=jRbLVjZgCGAvJvoI5VyzCA
14/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian forces continue to sustain heavy losses against Ukrainian defenses along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 4x BTGs have been withdrawn from the Izium Axis. facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
15/ Ukrainian TV, Day 67-72. Russia continues to lose ground in the information & economic sphere. Russia is attempting to find work arounds to western sanctions to replace critical military components. Western nations work to accelerate aid to Ukraine.
16/ InfoWar. The Kremlin continues its crackdown of domestic opposition to its war effort while state-media claims the war in Ukraine is a NATO proxy-war against Russia. This narrative is meant to play into the possibility of a 9 May declaration of war and/or full mobilization.
17/ Information Advantage. Ukraine is taking full advantage of recent Russian diplomatic gaffs to drive a wedge between Russia and countries that so far have remained neutral (specifically Israel) to reconsider their position and support Ukraine. msn.com/en-us/news/wor…
18/ The Ukrainian government continues to dominate the cyber sphere, recently launching an online funding effort to support Ukrainian resistance.
https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1522724511732350976?s=20&t=s6I-uAbGMHd7hPVQgTRzZA
19/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees total 7.78+ million with 6+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 1.78+ throughout Europe, and 7.5+ million internally displaced people throughout Ukraine (1.4+ million in eastern & 228K in southern Ukraine).
20/ Despite efforts to evacuate civilians from the Azovstal, Russia continues to violate ceasefire agreements to allow organized evacuations by attacking relief convoys attempting to evacuate civilians & the wounded along approved humanitarian corridors.
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1522979578477785090?s=20&t=s6I-uAbGMHd7hPVQgTRzZA
21/ Overall Assessment. As surmised in my 03 May thread of the likelihood of a Russian breakthrough along the Siverskyi Donets Line, Russian forces are likely heading toward tactical success but a strategic defeat.
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1521700041601302529?s=20&t=s6I-uAbGMHd7hPVQgTRzZA
22/ Likewise, as surmised in my 14 April thread, Ukraine is in the process of a significant localized counteroffensive in the Kharkiv area that has the high likelihood of creating a serious strategic dilemma for the Russian General Staff.
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1514761253398401028?s=20&t=s6I-uAbGMHd7hPVQgTRzZA
23/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of OSINT sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
24/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements. END
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