Jomini of the West Profile picture
May 7 24 tweets 9 min read
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 67-72. The past 6 days has seen Ukrainian forces execute a limited counteroffensive north & northeast of Kharkiv that has produced significant results. Russian forces continue to struggle to gain ground from Izium to Popasna. #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine
2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for east Ukraine shows temps (16-24 C) will continue to slowly dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement. However, mud still restricts movement to roads. Rain & cloud cover slightly degrades air & UAV operations.
3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine’s limited counteroffensive of 02-05 May north & NE of Kharkiv threatens to push Russian forces back across the border into Belgorod. Russian forces in the Kharkiv OD are to spread out and weak to reverse recent Ukrainian gains. #Kharkiv
4/ Russia cannot afford another major defeat and will likely have to repurpose reinforcements designated to the Main Effort along the Siverskyi Donets Line between Izium & Popasna or pull units from that direction to stabilize defensives in the Kharkiv OD.
5/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces continue to struggle to achieve a general breakthrough along the Siverskyi Donets Line between Izium and Popasna. Along the Izium Axis Russian forces are stalled, unable to gain ground against Ukrainian hasty defensive positions. #izium
6/ Russian command posts remain vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. Russian C2 nodes are not nimble, lack proper concealment, and struggle to mask their electronic signature. Ukraine targets Russian C2 nodes with great effect, crippling their ability to exercise command of forces.
7/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian forces are focusing artillery and air strikes in support of limited assaults on Orikhiv, Huilaipole, and Velyka Novosilka. The Ukrainian General Staff estimates the main Russia objective in the Zaporizhzhia OD is Orikhiv. #Zaporizhzhia #Melitopol
8/ Orikhiv sits at the crossroads of several major roads and is a vital point of communication for an advance on Zaporizhzhia. It is likely that units still refiting and reorganizing from the Siege of Mariupol may be committed here in the coming days.
9/ Azovstal (Mariupol). On 03 May Russian forces resumed their assault on the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone. Intense air and artillery strikes supported ground assaults which made minimal gains resulting in Russian troops entering the Azovstal complex for the first time. #Azovstal
10/ Azovstal still stands. Given the reduced number of Russian troops available for operations against the Azovstal Complex, Russian forces will continue to rely on siege tactics and massed air and artillery strikes to reduce Ukrainian resistance.
11/ Odesa-Kherson OD. There has been little activity in the Kherson-Odesa OD. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces continue to reinforce forward positions for a likely resumption of offensive operations to secure the northern and NW Kherson Oblast borders.
12/ It is assessed Russian occupation authorities will move forward with an illegitimate referendum to create the KPR. Ukrainian intelligence surmises false-flag incidents in Transnistria are intended to fix Ukrainian forces in Odesa to prevent their support to other operations.
13/ Aerospace Assessment. VKS air sorties remain steady at 300 in a 24-hour period. The focus of these sorties is on the interdiction of western aid supplies moving from west Ukraine to the front lines. These strikes have largely been ineffective.
14/ Battle Damage Assessment. Russian forces continue to sustain heavy losses against Ukrainian defenses along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. The Ukrainian General Staff reports 4x BTGs have been withdrawn from the Izium Axis. facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
15/ Ukrainian TV, Day 67-72. Russia continues to lose ground in the information & economic sphere. Russia is attempting to find work arounds to western sanctions to replace critical military components. Western nations work to accelerate aid to Ukraine.
16/ InfoWar. The Kremlin continues its crackdown of domestic opposition to its war effort while state-media claims the war in Ukraine is a NATO proxy-war against Russia. This narrative is meant to play into the possibility of a 9 May declaration of war and/or full mobilization.
17/ Information Advantage. Ukraine is taking full advantage of recent Russian diplomatic gaffs to drive a wedge between Russia and countries that so far have remained neutral (specifically Israel) to reconsider their position and support Ukraine. msn.com/en-us/news/wor…
18/ The Ukrainian government continues to dominate the cyber sphere, recently launching an online funding effort to support Ukrainian resistance.
19/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees total 7.78+ million with 6+ million in countries bordering Ukraine, another 1.78+ throughout Europe, and 7.5+ million internally displaced people throughout Ukraine (1.4+ million in eastern & 228K in southern Ukraine).
20/ Despite efforts to evacuate civilians from the Azovstal, Russia continues to violate ceasefire agreements to allow organized evacuations by attacking relief convoys attempting to evacuate civilians & the wounded along approved humanitarian corridors.
21/ Overall Assessment. As surmised in my 03 May thread of the likelihood of a Russian breakthrough along the Siverskyi Donets Line, Russian forces are likely heading toward tactical success but a strategic defeat.
22/ Likewise, as surmised in my 14 April thread, Ukraine is in the process of a significant localized counteroffensive in the Kharkiv area that has the high likelihood of creating a serious strategic dilemma for the Russian General Staff.
23/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of OSINT sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
24/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements. END

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jomini of the West

Jomini of the West Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JominiW

May 4
1/ Analyzing Breakthrough Operations in the Donbas. Today I take a little closer look at the state of operations along the line of operations ranging from Izium to Popasna in east Ukraine to gain a better understanding of what it will take to achieve a decisive breakthrough. Image
2/ This small study utilizes data, discussions, & insights from the following sources & is indebted to their amazing work: @HN_Schlottman, @TheStudyofWar, @Militarylandnet, @AggregateOsint, @HelloMrBond, @War_Mapper, @KofmanMichael, @dupuyinstitute, among many others.
3/ This is not a prediction, but a brief analysis of what seems to be the overall direction of operations by the Russian military in what is clearly the decisive terrain in east Ukraine – the convex line running from Izium through Siverskyi Donets to the Severondontsk Salient.
Read 25 tweets
May 1
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 65-66. The 48hrs has seen Russian forces continue their integrated offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. UKR forces have executed several successful counterattacks around Kharkiv. #WarinUkraine #UkraineRussianWar #Ukraine
2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for eastern Ukraine favors Russian offensive operations. Steady higher temps (17-23 C) will continue to dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement. Cloud cover will not degrade VKS sorties or UAV operations.
3/ Kharkiv OD. Ukrainian forces continue to conduct successful counterattacks to the north and east of Kharkiv, slowly pushing Russian forces toward the Russian border and Siverskyi Donets. Russian forces in the area are not adequate to slow Ukrainian attacks. #Kharkiv #Lozova
Read 20 tweets
Apr 29
1/ Ukrainian TVD, Day 58-64. The past week has seen Russian forces initiate an integrated offensive along the Siverskyi Donets Line & Severodonetsk Salient. Assaults resume against the Azovstal Metallurgical Zone; UKR forces execute several spoiling attacks. #WarinUkriane
2/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for eastern Ukraine favors Russian offensive operations. Partly cloudy skies will not degrade VKS sorties or UAV operations. Higher temps (16-21 C) will start to dry out areas with extensive mud, slightly improving offroad movement.
3/ Kharkiv OD. The Ukrainian General Staff estimates at least 7x BTGs of 6th CAA & Baltic / Northern Fleet Naval Infantry blocking Kharkiv and screening Russian movements east of the Siverskyi Donets. #Kharkiv
Read 25 tweets
Apr 23
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 55-57: The past 72 hrs. have seen the Kremlin declare “victory” in Mariupol, with Ukrainian resistance continuing in the Azovstal area. Russia keeps up pressure in the Severodonetsk Salient with only marginal gains. #UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine Image
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees exceed 6.97 million, with over 7.4 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. Evidence of deliberate atrocities emerge from Bucha grow daily, lending credence to reports of mass graves & mobile crematoriums in Mariupol.
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of partly cloudy skies & light rain on 24 APR, wind speed will generally average at 9 mph. Air & artillery strikes will remain degraded, mud continues to restrict ground movement. Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 19
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 52-54: The past 72 hrs. have seen Russian forces reduce Ukrainian defenses in Mariupol to the Azovstal area. Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv launch several successful counterattacks while Russia builds forces near Izium. #Ukraine #UkraineInvasion
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.67 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. 27 European countries are hosting Ukrainian Refugees, with many eastern European nations taking the weight of this humanitarian crisis.
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average at 8 mph. Air & artillery strikes will remain degraded, while heavy rain continues to restrict ground movement.
Read 13 tweets
Apr 19
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 52-54: The past 172 hrs. have seen Russian forces reduce Ukrainian defenses in Mariupol to the Azovstal area. Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv launch several successful counterattacks while Russia builds forces near Izium. #Ukraine #UkraineInvasion
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.67 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. 27 European countries are hosting Ukrainian Refugees, with many eastern European nations taking the weight of this humanitarian crisis.
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average at 8 mph. Air & artillery strikes will remain degraded, while heavy rain continues to restrict ground movement.
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(