Thread by @RobotDefi

Let's look at some basic #TA for $LUNA shall we?
The purpose is to see if there were any signs before the bottom fell out on $UST on May 9th 2022 (UTC).

Before we do so, let me first state that I completely recognize that hindsight is 20/20....

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Also, our brains are really good at recognizing patterns even when there aren't any.

I want to reiterate too, that I do not believe #TA can be effectively used to predict the future...especially black swan events.

HOWEVER...

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Things rarely happen in isolation. Humans are messy creatures. We leave clues, even when we don't mean to.

And the charts always reveal those clues.

So I just wanted to explore if there were any left before the #Terra ecosystem collapsed.

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First, let's look at the daily chart up to the day BEFORE the ish hit the fan.

This was up to May 8th.

At the bottom there is the ROC indicator, which stands for Rate of Change. It's a momentum indicator.

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Momentum indicators tell us the direction of trade momentum. As you can see here, WELL before 5/9 ,$LUNA was losing steam. It was rapidly descending into "over-sold" territory.

Not necessarily a sell signal, but by no means a buy entry (yet).

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Here's another one. The 50/200 EMA is a popular set up that just shows the strength of support and resistance levels. Dropping below the 200 period EMA signals the sellers are overtaking the buyers.

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The much stronger signal comes after the 50 CROSSES the 200, but again, closing below the 200 is a sign.

Not necessarily a sell signal, but def not a buy entry either.

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Am I suggesting you should've known this was going to happen? NO! 100% no.

Am I suggesting people who bought in at these levels were foolish? Again, no.

Very few people predicted this was a possibility. And many probably saw the oversold signal as a buy opp.

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My only point in this thread is that the charts always leave clues, and it really benefits investors to learn how to read them. Even if only at a rudimentary level. This gives you more data to make informed decisions.

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My heart truly goes out to all that were negatively impacted by this situation. I hope the spirit of this thread is not misunderstood. I'm an advocate for education and awareness, and that is what I hope people draw from this.

Love and light.

🧵/finis