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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
May 12, 2022 • 5 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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NEW | #Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the #Izyum-#Slovyansk-#Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
It is unclear if #Russian forces can encircle, let alone capture, #Severodonetsk and #Lysychansk even if they focus their efforts on that much-reduced objective.
The #Ukrainian counteroffensive around #Kharkiv is also forcing the #Russian command to make hard choices, as it was likely intended to do.
#Russian forces continued to conduct air and artillery strikes against #Ukrainian positions in the Azovstal Steel Plant on May 12.
#Russian forces attempted to improve their positions along the Southern Axis and continued to fire on #Ukrainian troops but did not make any confirmed advances on May 12.

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 2
NEW | The combined US-Israeli force has struck over 2,000 targets in Iran and achieved air superiority over Tehran.

The combined force has continued to target Iranian internal security institutions responsible for maintaining stability and suppressing protests, including security forces along Iran’s northwestern borders with Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan.

The IDF announced that it has started “systematically dismantling” Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.Image
2/ The combined force conducted several strikes targeting Iranian drone launch facilities in southeastern Iran that Iran likely used to launch drones at its Arab Gulf neighbors.

The combined force seeks to disrupt the Iranian navies’ ability to attack international shipping and US Navy vessels.Image
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3/ Iran appeared to fire significantly less munitions at Israel on March 1 than on February 28, which suggests that US-Israeli efforts to degrade Iran's retaliatory capabilities are succeeding.

Iran also appears to be relying more heavily on its drones compared to its ballistic missiles in its strike packages targeting Gulf states.

The inconsistency of Iran’s retaliatory attacks on March 1 suggests that Iranian units may be struggling to coordinate large-scale attacks.Image
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jan 19
NEW | Russian forces are reportedly preparing to conduct long-range strikes against substations powering Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. (1/5)Image
This warning comes as Russia continues its long-range strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, resulting in widespread blackouts. (2/5)
Russian state media amplified a Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian politician’s statements to prepare the Russian domestic populace for the Kremlin's rejection of peace in the near-team amid ongoing US, Ukrainian, and European negotiations. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jan 15
NEW | Somalia canceled all bilateral agreements with the UAE on January 12, which legally annuls UAE access to key Red Sea ports and military bases, potentially affecting UAE anti-Houthi operations and weapons shipments to the RSF in Sudan.

Somalia’s move could also have negative implications on counterterrorism efforts, given the UAE’s support for Somali federal and state forces combating al Shabaab and IS Somalia. 🧵1/6Image
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Somalia cited the UAE’s alleged “hostile and destabilizing actions undermining national sovereignty” when justifying its decision.

The UAE reportedly facilitated Israel’s recognition of the breakaway Somaliland region. The UAE then evacuated the STC leader through Somalia following the STC’s failed takeover in Yemen, which Saudi Arabia and Yemeni government forces foiled. 2/6
The SFG’s move would degrade the UAE’s strategic depth in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region if enforced.

The UAE would lose access to military bases along the Gulf of Aden in Puntland and Somaliland that it uses to support operations against the Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthis and other maritime security operations. The loss of access would hinder the UAE’s ability to supply the RSF, as Puntland’s port of Bossaso is a transit point for UAE weapons shipments to the RSF. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Oct 23, 2025
NEW | Al Qaeda's Sahelian affiliate JNIM has escalated the objectives of its blockade to expand and strengthen its governance efforts across parts of southern Mali, as it begins to enforce shari'a law.🧵Image
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A JNIM spokesperson announced that it would continue its ongoing fuel blockade until the Malian government fell or agreed to apply shari'a law nationwide.

The spokesperson simultaneously said that JNIM would unilaterally implement certain shari'a provisions across the country.

The group has since started enforcing the veiling of women and gender segregation at checkpoints.

Civilians leaving Bamako have reportedly abided by these provisions, highlighting JNIM's ability to disrupt civilian life and psychologically coerce civilians across the country. 2/4
JNIM has likely opportunistically diverged from its original objectives due to its success in sustaining the blockade, marking a major inflection.

The group initially demanded that the Malian junta lift a ban on fuel sales in rural villages across Mali and demanded that local transport companies cut cooperation with state forces.

The group has continued ambushing fuel tankers and stopping buses. However, it is now using its presence along these same roadways to enforce shari'a law.

The Malian junta’s inability to ease the blockade is heightening public tensions. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Sep 5, 2025
NEW | Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM has established control over Farabougou, a key crossroads and symbolically important town in central Mali.

The capture is another blow to the Malian junta following an alleged coup attempt in early August. 🧵Image
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JNIM overran the Malian army base in Farabougou on August 19.

JNIM fighters remained in the adjacent town in the following days and took videos of Friday prayers on August 22.

The group has since signed an agreement with local leaders to allow civilians who had fled the town to return. Returnees must pay taxes and follow JNIM-interpreted shari’a law, including provisions on music, alcohol consumption, and clothing.
Farabougou is near the RN31 highway, which connects central and southern Mali via the northern parts of the Ségou and Koulikoro regions along the Mauritanian border.

The capture of Farabougou will expand JNIM support zones along the Mauritanian border, enabling greater pressure in southern Mali on towns like Nara.Image
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Aug 28, 2025
NEW | US-supported Somali forces are encountering strong resistance as they try to clear IS Somalia Province’s (ISS) cave complexes in northern Somalia’s Puntland region.

The ongoing operations are likely targeting IS global leadership and some of ISS’s final strongholds.🧵Image
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Puntland forces with US air support have been conducting operations against ISS in the Ballade valley for over a week.

US and Puntland officials said on August 26 that they had concluded a two-week joint operation against “ISIS leadership safe havens.” x.com/USAfricaComman…

Puntland forces have continued their operations, however, and ISS ambushes, sniper fire, and suicide commando attacks since August 22 have allegedly killed more than 50 Puntland soldiers, although Puntland officials have disputed these figures.
The operation is likely targeting high-ranking ISS and possibly IS global leadership, who have so far evaded the 2025 counter-ISS offensive.

Global IS leadership figures, including suspected IS emir or global operational head Abdulqadir Mumin, are likely present in the area.
Read 6 tweets

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