Thread by @SimonCopland

One of the most enduring myths of Australian politics is that the Australian populace is, by and large, inherently and unmovingly conservative.

This idea drives so much of our political and media commentary. However, it simply isn't true. A 🧵.

#auspol #ausvotes

This myth has underpinned the current election campaign. The ALP's 'small target' strategy is based on a belief that Australians will reject bold progressive policies. Katherine Deves' anti-trans comments are part of a strategy to appeal to a core conservatism within the country.

Both parties, and many of their supporters, fundamentally believe in an inherent conservatism in Aus.

However, when you start to look at polling on issues this narrative falls apart. Australians are far more progressive than the political class assumes.

Let's have a look.

A quick note on methodology. I am using polling on issues as a means of analysis. Polling is of course not always accurate, so have tried to find multiple examples where possible. I'll touch on some issues here, but this analysis could easily be expanded.

1.) Climate Change

Despite the 'climate wars' polling consistently shows Australians want much more action on the issue. The Lowy Institute does yearly polling on Australian's views on climate (lowyinstitute.org/publications/c…).

Some highlights from the 2021 poll:

- 60% of Australians say ‘global warming is a serious and pressing problem. We should begin taking steps now, even if this involves significant costs’.
- A majority of Australians (55%) say the government’s main priority for energy policy should be ‘reducing carbon emissions’.

- 64% of Australians support introducing an emissions trading scheme or a carbon tax, which is amazing given how unwilling either major party is to even consider this.
- Crucially, 63% support a ban on new coal mines opening in Australia and 63% support reducing coal exports.

A decent majority of Australians want much more action on global warming than either party is willing to go near. After years of bickering on climate change, Australians clearly do not think our politicians are doing enough.

2.) Asylum seekers.

This has been one of the hottest topics of Australian politics, with both major parties aligning to a hard-line policy over the past years. It is assumed this is necessary, with being 'soft' on asylum seekers seen as political killer.

But the polling is actually far more complex than this.

Again, the Lowy Institute Poll from 2021 is instructive.

poll.lowyinstitute.org/charts/asylum-…

- Sadly, 69% support boat turnbacks 'when it is safe to do so'.

However, on other issues, views are far more mixed.

- Only 38% of people say no asylum seeker coming to Australia by boat should be allowed to settle here. This is the central plank of current policy.

- 55% say all asylum seekers should be processed in Australia, whether or not they come by boat (confusingly 54% also say they should be processed offshore)
- 53% believe asylum seekers should be given temporary protection visas, which allow them to work and get welfare.

In addition, polling showed Australians supported Medevac laws, which allowed for asylum seekers to be evacuated to Australia for better medical care. When introduced it was assumed this was risky by the ALP and was repealed by the Morrison Government.

theguardian.com/australia-news…

3.) Social issues

Australians also show themselves to be very progressive. We saw this with the postal vote on marriage equality, which passed with 61.6% of Australians voting yes. This was despite an intense and often highly bigoted no campaign.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia…

This support seems also to be true on trans rights.

Polling done by Equality Australia (equalityaustralia.org.au/overwhelming-s…) found people overwhelmingly said trans people deserve rights and protections (78%)...

...opposed the ability for schools to be able to expel kids based on their sexuality or gender (66%) and found that 66% of Australians agree that young people should be able to access healthcare that supports them to live as their true selves.

That is a high level of support!

I could only find one poll on the inclusion of trans women in sport (the current hot topic). It showed "67% of Australians want women's sport to be biologically female". Maybe more work needs to be done here, both on research and talking with the public.

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…

On another big topic at the moment, polls consistently show that Australians overwhemingly support the right for women to access abortion. Some links:

- Children by Choice: childrenbychoice.org.au/resources-stat…

- The Medical Journal of Australia: mja.com.au/journal/2010/1…

4.) Welfare

Australians support increases to welfare!

In 2019, a poll by ACOSS found 72% of Australians supported increasing Newstart (as it was known then). Huge!

theguardian.com/australia-news…

In a poll asking people what their top budget priorities were in 2020, the Australia Institute found that increasing income support for people looking for work was the single most popular priority, chosen by three in 10 Australians (30%).

australiainstitute.org.au/post/polling-v…

Notably, this poll also found that spending on infrastructure and government services like health and education was the second most popular priority. Reducing the deficit (a current ALP obsession) was the least popular option.

Australians even support more radical approaches.

A poll from Anglicare in 2021 found 77 per cent of people supported the idea of a Basic Income. Could you imagine either major party supporting something like this?

abc.net.au/news/2021-08-1…

These are only some issues, but I could go on and on on and on (but I won't).

Things aren't perfect here, but the point is clear: the assumption that Australians are inherently conservative is just not true. Our political class is consistently more conservative than us.

Lefties need to be thinking very differently in our approach. The problem is not the 'population' it is the political and media class. Instead of assuming we need to consistently 'convince' voters on issues, we should spend more time rallying voters to insist on change.

Starting at the assumption that we are all conservative is not helpful. It means we consistently look down at the voting base of this country and losing any capacity for bold ideas. We can do better. End (I ran out of space!)