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May 13 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
#Kharkiv Update Thread:

#Ukraine appears to have won the Battle of Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces prevented #Russian troops from encircling, let alone seizing Kharkiv, and then expelled them from around the city, as they did to Russian forces around Kyiv. 1/4
isw.pub/RusCampaignMay…
#Kharkiv Update Thread:

The #Russian command is also likely prioritizing the withdrawal of Russian troops over that of its proxies. 2/4
isw.pub/RusCampaignMay…
#Kharkiv Update Thread:

A Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) serviceman said that the #Russian border patrol along the highway to #Belgorod refused to let his battalion, withdrawn from around Kharkiv City, into Russia for two days. 3/4
isw.pub/RusCampaignMay…
#Kharkiv Update Thread:

#Russian forces are likely attempting to defend GLOCs to #Izyum in the northeastern part of Kharkiv Oblast after #Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced to #Ternova—a settlement only three km from the Russian border. 4/4
isw.pub/RusCampaignMay…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
May 13
More highlights from our May 12 campaign assessment with @criticalthreats:

1. Continued and expanding reports of demoralization and refusals to fight among Russian units suggests the effective combat power of Russian troops in the east continues to be low and may drop further.
2. If the Russians abandon efforts to advance from Izyum, moreover, Ukrainian forces would be able to concentrate their efforts on defending Severodonetsk-Lysychansk or, in the worst case, breaking a Russian encirclement before those settlements fall.
3. The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv is also forcing the Russian command to make hard choices. UK MoD reports that Russian forces pulled back from Kharkiv have been sent east, but at the cost of ceding ground from which the Russians had been shelling the city.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 13
#Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of #Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Read the latest from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats:
isw.pub/RusCampaignMay…
The relative success of Russian operations in this area combined with their failure to advance from Izyum and the notable decline in the energy of that attempted advance suggest that they may be giving up on the Izyum axis.
Reports that Russian forces in Popasna are advancing north, toward Severodonetsk-Lysychansk, rather than east toward the Slovyansk-Debaltseve highway, support this hypothesis.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 11
As previously assessed, ISW believes Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) fighting in Ukraine have been so heavily degraded that counting them is no longer a useful metric of Russian combat power.
@YahooNews: news.yahoo.com/russian-offens…
You can read more on the topic of assessing Russian combat power in ISW's 4/9 report w/ @criticalthreats:

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
The three key takeaways from the 4/9 report:

1) Russia is unlikely to be able to mass combat power for the fight in eastern Ukraine proportionate to the number of troops and BTGs it sends there.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 11
ISW has this morning published a guide to the current command structure of the #Russian Armed Forces at the General Staff, Military District, and Army/Corps levels. (1/4)

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
- This guide includes key officers in the Russian General Staff and identifies the commander, chief of staff, and deputy commander for Russia’s four main military districts and their subordinate army and corps-level formations. (2/4) Image
- The current officers occupying each of those roles is also included, as well as their biography and verifiable career history.

- We intend this publication as a resource for the military, government, and other researchers. (3/4)
understandingwar.org/backgrounder/r…
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 11
The #Ukrainian counteroffensive north of #Kharkiv City continued to successfully push #Russian forces toward the Russia-Ukraine border on May 10.

Read the full report from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats: isw.pub/RusCampaignMay…
The Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely continue to divert Russian troops and resources from deployment to other axes of advance where fighting has been similarly stalled out by the successful Ukrainian defense.
Further, the counteroffensive will impede the ability of Russian artillery to target the northeastern suburbs of Kharkiv City, will potentially enable Ukrainian forces to threaten Russian rear areas with their own shelling and further attacks, and...
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 10
Read today's campaign assessment from @TheStudyofWar & @criticalthreats: #Russian troops in #Ukraine continue to display low morale and poor discipline as fighting in many areas has stalled out against #Ukrainian resistance.

Full update: isw.pub/RusCampaignMay9
Additional assessment highlights:

- Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances to the southeast or southwest of #Izyum on May 9 but are likely attempting to concentrate the forces necessary to resume offensive operations in the coming days.
- Russian forces made marginal gains around #Severodonetsk in the past 24 hours.

- Russian units in #Zaporizhia Oblast are regrouping and will likely receive reinforcements from forces previously deployed in Mariupol.
Read 5 tweets

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