Jakal Profile picture
May 14 19 tweets 11 min read
yesterday I threw out an off the cuff question to @bitfinexed
How much of the redeemed #tether was used to recover and maintain its peg?

The obvious answer is whatever they had to.

I've spent a big chunk of today crunching data to see what answers I could come up with.
Last night I scratched out my hypothesis - to maintain its peg...#tether would need to tap its own cash...can only do that via redemptions and the 'tell' will be burning the tokens like they never existed.
Basis for this thinking is pretty simple. That's what they do when they need cash and lots of it. Remember back in 2018 #novogratz was swooning over the orderly redemption of $700m by #tether.
But no one could work out where or who the cash went to...then NYAG discovered that #bitfinex had cracked open the #tether piggybank....#jointhedots
After getting pinged by NYAG Bitfinex/tether had to pivot and paper over the funds as a loan.....but this didn't change their habits...here's the repayment of $100m by #bitfinex..
essentially - burn on the way out and issue new tokens on the way back in.....
So with that background in mind - let the #FUD begin.
So here we have donkey boy doing a "victory lap" about processing $3B redemptions in a day.
Really? How amazing.....because they have always been so quick to process redemptions to outsiders...lets take a trip down memory lane....#bitfinex customers hung out to dry for months after the wiz lost nearly a billion to #cryptocapital....but yeah now #bestactorsever
Meanwhile the other rats have gone with the predictable down for #scheduledmaintenance h/t @ben_mckenzie and @MikeBurgersburg
What are the chances that Donkey and team are prioritising customers wanting to get out of #tether and literally emptying the coffers....meanwhile there are amazing white knights digging in and buying billions of tethers to stop Armageddon.
Lets just call bullshit right here....there's absolutely only one reason anyone would process billions of redemptions....and that is so they can buy billions of tether on the market. Anyone else is a rat trying to escape the sinking ship.
What really shits me is this bullshit....about the ninja efficiency of traders arbing #tether every time their is even a sliver of profit to be made....because of course half a percent is the best arbitrage opportunity in the market
Lets just have a look at how ridiculous this rationale is. The best opportunity in the entire market in the last 48hours is propping up #tether. No other bargains out there.
So who's buying up all the #tether? Well its certainly not the broader market - Here's a chart of tether top 100 holders over the last week (nothing says decentralisation quite like 0.002195% of holders owning > 50%).
So it was the top 100 chart where I started to drill down. As all the action has happened in the last few days I've only built out the data for 1 May to 14 May 2022 using coinmarketcap data. The issued USDT has been estimated by mktcap/closing price
I've used the % from the chart to estimate the tokens held by each segment of the top 100 (1-10, 11-20 etc).
Stripping away some of the noise - and just comparing 1 May to 14 May 2022. The top 10 now hold 31.5% of issued tokens an increase of 3.7B tokens in 13 days. Yet the total tokens on issue have reduced by 4.4B
while the top 100 now for the first time hold more 50% of tokens on issue....holders 11-100 now have 1.5B less tokens.
Best indicator as to the percentage of the redemptions that have been used on their own account to re-peg #tether is the actual tokens burned.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Jakal

Jakal Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @intel_jakal

May 13
@coloradotravis You'll like this then. Image
@coloradotravis Duh apologies the first table heading should say Tether consolidated entities - balance sheet.
@coloradotravis For a deeper dive in Celsius....here's a breakdown of each financing round
Read 4 tweets
May 8
$CEL those that bought at $0.30 can sell to zero and make multiples. Image
$CEL there are no natural buyers. Just a shitload of in the money sellers. Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 1
I've updated the #tether attestation #googlesheets analysis. A few changes including fixing a glaring error 😳 #commercialpaper analysis h/t to @accountantInc catching the mistake. Document consolidates all reported quarters to date >>> bit.ly/3Kzkjz2
The #tether #commercialpaper section has been expanded/updated to show not just the net changes but the new issues/rollovers etc....
The purpose of the #commercialpaper analysis was to highlight that the reported $6.4B reduction in CP was only half the story....and it kinda shits me that the numbers are just trumpeted by most news as is...
Read 11 tweets
Mar 27
Have been working through $CEL #celsiusnetwork's $750m Series B round. Will share #googlesheets file tomorrow. Here's a preview.
3 Dec 2021 #Celsius resolved to issue up-to 36,930 Series B shares at a price of US$20,469 per share. As at 2 Feb 2022 total of 32,182 Series B shares had been issued. I'm presuming #bnktothefuture will have closed out the balance. Image
The #Celsius Cap table (as at 2 Feb) with pre/post money for each issue. Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 11
So finally got around to plugging in #tether's Dec 2021 attestation numbers. So their non-token debt is now up to 57m which means their net assets are down to $137m imagine having 80Billion in assets and still having to borrow money each quarter to fund operations.... Image
oh and the increase in debt between quarters is $41m which just happens to be the fine #tether copped.
tomorrow i'll publish the link to the financials.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 31
Look at that....Primo directorship of a UK company with GBP1Billion of capital (US$1.Billion give or take). Pretty cool hey.....and even better....he had the best investors.... Image
Himself. Why have outside investors when you can write the cheque yourself. pretty cool being able to write a single check for $1.4billion..... Image
but then again....things might not have gone to plan. Someone forgot to file accounts and got struck off...Geewizz how much bad luck can you have... Image
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!