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Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
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May 16 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
🚩The Russian-made S-300 battery was used for the first time against Israeli planes operating in #Syria according to @alonbd
There were unconfirmed reports that Israeli warplanes that targeted the Masyaf area a few days ago took aim at the Russian-made (but Syrian-manned) S-300 battery. The battery is situated deep inside the Latakia mountains
One of those reports came from @WorldNewsIL here. I have also heard similar reports though none confirmed so far
Several Syrian soldiers were killed in the recent strikes. They likely belonged to an air defense unit, possibly the one that was manning the Russian-made S-300 battery
The S-300 battery has been in #Syria for long, but it was never used. #Russia was likely behind the decision not to use it, and is now also behind the decision to use it.

This is a message from #Moscow to Israel, and it's not subtle.
It appears #Israel responded in kind by targeting the battery.
** may have responded in kind (I don't think the response is confirmed)

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More from @michaelh992

Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
May 17
Those strikes, geolocated by @Tendar show that Ukrainian artillery is working on Russian targets much closer to Izyum than before
The strikes were geolocated here, five km from Izyum (as per @Tendar's geolocation) suggesting that Ukrainian forces are within striking distance of the city, which serves as an important logistical node for Russian forces. Image
Given how critical this road is, if Ukraine can deliver sustained artillery strikes, this will significantly hamper the Izyum axis - and it may already have, as fires were reported close to the city, and the Russian offensive there has been stalling.
Read 5 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
May 17
Russian shells hit the Knauf Gips plant in Bakhmut, in the Donbass.

Heavy smoke reported
This is the latest in a series of attacks against local plants/factories. Seems very deliberate.
*Bakhmutske, not Bakhmut (it's in the same area though)
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
May 17
The Ukrainian military announced that Ukrainian soldiers in Azovstal have "accomplished their mission"
facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
ccording to the statement 53 wounded were evacuated for treatment in Novoazovsk, with an additional 211 also taken out of the plant to Olenivka, to be exchanged.
Efforts are ongoing to rescue those who still remain in the Azovstal Plant.
Read 6 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
May 16
This is an interesting article, mostly because it breaks from the general optimism re. #Ukraine. We should look at the situation objectively, which is difficult as most sympathize with Ukraine

But I still disagree with the central argument of the piece.
time.com/6176748/ukrain…
First this argument is plainly wrong. #Ukraine is far more prepared today than it was in 2014. The deadlock, after the initial phase of fighting. was also due to years of diplomatic efforts, with the implicit aim of avoiding exactly what we saw on February 24.
In other words, Ukraine has both changed and is not fighting the same fight it did between 2014 and 2022. Comparing the two to draw any sort of conclusion is wrong/misguided.
Read 10 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
May 14
According to an adviser of the Ukrainian Ministry of Interior, Viktor Andrusiv, #Russia plans to fight until the end of the year, hoping that an energy crisis during this winter will force the West to negotiate.
Those are mere speculations and I don't know whether this is based on actual intelligence.
Fighting for months would require significant military resources for Russia, even if Moscow decides to freeze all of its offensives and go on the defensive. I don't think it's impossible but holding the line may prove difficult.
Read 4 tweets
Michael A. Horowitz Profile picture
May 13
I am actually surprised the US would ask for a ceasefire without calling for the departure of Russian troops from #Ukraine. A ceasefire would only play in Moscow's hands
It seems the lessons from the Syrian crisis, and how ceasefires were used by Russia as one of several tools to break the opposition and shift attention away from the war, haven't been drawn in Washington
Yes we'd have to see the full statement
Read 4 tweets

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