1/ Thread to talk about #Popasna area.
End of the day Gen staff confirmed ; "In the #Bakmut direction, with the support of artillery, Russian tried to improve the tactical position of their units. fought in the settlements of #Toshkivka, #Komyshuvakha, #Trypillya & #Vasylivka.
End of the day Gen staff confirmed ; "In the #Bakmut direction, with the support of artillery, Russian tried to improve the tactical position of their units. fought in the settlements of #Toshkivka, #Komyshuvakha, #Trypillya & #Vasylivka.
2/ reminder of the settlements (small cities) .
so I'm doing this thread to put in perspectives all the talks we can here about this area right now and what Russians are "trying" to achieve there...
so I'm doing this thread to put in perspectives all the talks we can here about this area right now and what Russians are "trying" to achieve there...
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1527658420240793600
3/ As we all well know by know is that they are basically trying to progress in the direction of #Bilohorivka as main goal & #Bakmut / #Soledar.
The idea seems simple and quite "feasable" classic pincer movement..
well as i said weeks ago. i don't think so.
let me "explain"...
The idea seems simple and quite "feasable" classic pincer movement..
well as i said weeks ago. i don't think so.
let me "explain"...
4/ first of all, let's go back to the "initial state".
you can clearly see in the map below the Minsk "frontier" from 2017 (red stripes) from which the Russian started the invasion... 12 weeks ago.
12.
Now.. they are in the area (i was generous) within the dark red line.. lol
you can clearly see in the map below the Minsk "frontier" from 2017 (red stripes) from which the Russian started the invasion... 12 weeks ago.
12.
Now.. they are in the area (i was generous) within the dark red line.. lol
5/ now you have to understand that they are throwing as much as they can here, and this is the result. almost nothing and maybe 3 small villages in the coming days.
but do you you think Ukrainians were waiting for russians to "come in" just like that? let me show you another map
but do you you think Ukrainians were waiting for russians to "come in" just like that? let me show you another map
6/ This was the map from the "situation" in September 2014 (Russian source). if you zoom in, you zoomed in you'll see the green line (dots) which goes near Popasna etc.
For 7 years, Ukrainians knew Pro russians orcs or Russians might want to go further there.
so they prepared /
For 7 years, Ukrainians knew Pro russians orcs or Russians might want to go further there.
so they prepared /
7/ another line of defense... this line was not made 2 km away from Popasna, they have prepared strong defenses near Bakmut, kramatorsk, Sloviansk etc and behind the Kazenny torets (river).
now, maybe you think well the area is easy to "take" ?
nope.
now, maybe you think well the area is easy to "take" ?
nope.
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1524484546313531395
8/ From this 800km2 Russians would have to protect from both flanks and to stretch their skinny line of offense for more than 20km.
and once reach. they would have to take all the cities in this "chaudron" (pocket) which would be 3 to 5 times the size of Marioupol area !!
well..
and once reach. they would have to take all the cities in this "chaudron" (pocket) which would be 3 to 5 times the size of Marioupol area !!
well..
9/ now..
let me remind you of this :
(the great power of Russia 1 month ago, after "storming" the area of #Izyum )
18 April 2022! one month later, they are NOWHERE! few more kilometers down the road. that's it.
let me remind you of this :
(the great power of Russia 1 month ago, after "storming" the area of #Izyum )
18 April 2022! one month later, they are NOWHERE! few more kilometers down the road. that's it.
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1516042526909771783
10/ now is the time of my "childish" drawings (i know by experience that you can show really good things with simple drawings, & i'm also not a graphist, just an old guy ;-)
it's almost quite self explanatory.
this is an "imaginary" yet almost real situation (hehe) to understand
it's almost quite self explanatory.
this is an "imaginary" yet almost real situation (hehe) to understand
11/ from the moment Russians decided to go to Izyum they had 22 BTGs or equivalent... then they spread, and you need artillery bataillon and support bataillon and reserve bataillon etc etc. then you spread your area under constraints and increase the difficulties w terrain pbs.
12/ At the end of the day, Russians like the little rabbit i put there are "stuck" there. they are going nowhere, they have lost at least the equivalent of 4 bataillon (killed or injured etc)
Well I guess you see where i'm going with this comparison.
so how much bataillon would
Well I guess you see where i'm going with this comparison.
so how much bataillon would
13/ Russians need to take the entire area from bakmut to Siversk and everything inside that pocket!?
maybe 12 to 15 more super motivated, professional, and well trained soldiers, only to do the job and then half would die all in the process the rest would be crippled for good.
maybe 12 to 15 more super motivated, professional, and well trained soldiers, only to do the job and then half would die all in the process the rest would be crippled for good.
so. at the end of the day.. when we all see this kind of map..
let's not be fooled by the size of it and lets remember, #UAarmy have the will and new units r trained and will come to kick the ass of the Russians there. even if it takes time & it's dirty.
let's not be fooled by the size of it and lets remember, #UAarmy have the will and new units r trained and will come to kick the ass of the Russians there. even if it takes time & it's dirty.
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1527658420240793600
15/ Also I just remember this.... and take it like the symbol of their true "power" .... ;-)
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1525065285300015105
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