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May 23 • 3 tweets • 3 min read
White House on the diesel crunch:

“We're closely monitoring challenges to diesel supply and prices as a result of Putin's invasion.”

“An emergency declaration has been prepared for @POTUS to authorize a release from [diesel] reserves if necessary.”

#OOTT via @EmilieSimons46
For background, read my @opinion column about the diesel crisis in the US East Coast. While Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is, as the White House says, a factor, probably more important is the huge reduction in East Coast oil refining capacity | #OOTT bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Why is diesel so important? The fuel is the workhorse of the global economy. It keeps trucks and vans, excavators and heavy machinery, freight trains and ships all buzzing | #OOTT @opinion
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

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More from @JavierBlas

Javier Blas Profile picture
May 20
As the economic cost of the war mount, the cracks are emerging.

Today’s NYT editorial board:

“… in the end, it is still not in America’s best interest to plunge into an all-out war with Russia, even if a negotiated peace may require Ukraine to make some hard decisions…”
And this from the same editorial:

“… but popular support for a war far from U.S. shores will not continue indefinitely. Inflation is a much bigger issue for American voters than Ukraine, and the disruptions to global food and energy markets are likely to intensify…”
The full editorial comment is here, in effect making the case for peace talks in which Ukraine gives up some of the territory that Moscow has conquered since 2014 nytimes.com/2022/05/19/opi…
Read 4 tweets
Javier Blas Profile picture
Mar 18
OIL MARKET: @IEA launches 10-point plan to "restrain" oil demand, including recommending cutting highway speeds by 10 km/h; making public transport cheaper, car-free cities on Sunday, etc.. It's the 1970s-style savings program (and it's needed!) #OOTT iea.org/reports/a-10-p…
OIL MARKET: @IEA believes that all its measures can reduce OECD oil demand by ~2.8m b/d via restrain measures. Reducing highway speeds by 10km/h alone can cut oil demand by 400,000 b/d, according to the agency's modelling.
I had been advocating for similar measures. Outside France, however, not a single OECD government is taking them seriously. For now, most are doing the exactly the opposite: cut gasoline taxes and use subsidies to support consumption bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 5 tweets
Javier Blas Profile picture
Mar 6
This week, The World for Sale comes out in paperback

It explains how oil and commodity markets work, how they influence geopolitics, and the extraordinary power of a few traders you've probably never heard of

Please take a look smarturl.it/TheWorldForSal…
The book is coming out in paperback March 10th in most of the world. US and Canadian readers have to wait until next month, but the hardback is available now. Or you can buy it anywhere as ebook or audiobook smarturl.it/TheWorldForSale
Some alternatives to Amazon for UK readers (anyone struggling to find a copy in other parts of the world, DM us and we will do our best to help):

📚Bookshop uk.bookshop.org/books/the-worl…

📚Waterstones waterstones.com/book/the-world…

📚Hive hive.co.uk/Product/Javier…

Or your local bookshop
Read 4 tweets
Javier Blas Profile picture
Dec 12, 2021
EUROPEAN ENERGY CRISIS: Norway will **subsidize** electricity after wholesale prices skyrocketed, at a cost of nearly $900 million. The government will cover half of households’ power costs from December to March when prices rise above a certain level bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
(I wonder if the Norwegian government is going to think a bit about why this is happening, and the role the interconnectors are playing -- and how Norwegian hydro power has become de facto "baseload" power for certain countries struggling with variable wind generation)
(Second thing I do wonder: does the electricity subsidy also cover re-charging an EV in Norway?) #Tesla #EVs
Read 4 tweets
Javier Blas Profile picture
Nov 10, 2021
CLIMATE CHNAGE: UK has published a draft of the #COP26 "cover decision" (think about it as the political doc from the summit). Retains Paris language of 1.5-2.0 degrees. Ask for quick NDCs update. Calls for coal phase out, and end to fossil fuel subsidies unfccc.int/sites/default/…
As in every international negotiation, expect the document to suffer multiple changes, and be watered-down. As it happened at the G20, the early draft is an aspiration by the presidency, and in some ways designed show to environmentalist that London did try hard at #COP26
The fact that "fossil fuel subsidies" is mentioned is grabbing quite a lot of attention. Yet, it has been mentioned in G20 communiques for the last 11 years (that said, the G20 language is a bit more nuanced -- weaker -- than the #COP26 early draft language)
Read 4 tweets
Javier Blas Profile picture
Nov 2, 2021
Two days ahead of the OPEC+ virtual meeting, US President Joe Biden is pointing fingers: "If you take a look at gas prices and you take a look at oil prices that's a consequence of thus far the refusal of Russia or the OPEC nations to pump more oil" #OOTT
The White House is, in some ways, boxing itself in a corner. If Saudi Arabia and Russia call the threats a bluff, President Biden will have two options: quickly counteract (SPR release?) or retreat and look weak. Both options have a lot of downside for the White House | #OOTT
The very public American pressure on OPEC+ keeps building up, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken asking his UAE counterpart also for an oil production increase on the sidelines of the #COP26 meeting in Glasgow | #OOTT
Read 5 tweets

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