Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
May 25 โ€ข 6 tweets โ€ข 4 min read
[Thread] One more, hopefully last, update of latest #COVID19 indicators for Omicron BA.4 & BA.5 -driven #5thWave in Gauteng, South Africa ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

TL;DR :
- Cases declining ๐Ÿ“‰
- Test % positivity declining ๐Ÿ“‰
- Hospitalisations peaked ๐Ÿ™Œ
- Deaths low and slowing ๐Ÿคž

Thread ๐Ÿงต.. 1/6
With new #COVID19 cases in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ having peaked recently, promisingly cases didn't plateau but well on the decline now ๐Ÿ“‰

Current 7-day rolling avg at 1,609 or 10.2 per 100k, down 39% week-on-week and already down to 51% of recent peak ๐Ÿ‘

2/6
Latest #COVID19 test % positivity in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ for week ending 21 May = 19.6% ๐Ÿ“‰

Testing has remained low, understandably, so test % positivity is naturally higher but after peaking it has continued to decline, confirming the decline in infections ๐Ÿ‘

3/6
Promisingly, after a lag, hospital admissions in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ peaked over the past week ๐Ÿ™Œ

Case hospitalisation ratio has been similar to Omicron BA.1 wave, but with reduced testing cases are underestimated

Hospital admissions peaked at ~35% of previous Omicron BA.1 wave ๐Ÿ“‰

4/6
Reported #COVID19 deaths in Gauteng ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ are still increasing, as expected due to the lag, but the rate of increase has slowed ๐Ÿคž

Further, deaths have remained significantly lower than that previous waves ๐Ÿ™

5/6
Again, trends in this BA.4 & BA.5 driven #5thWave of #COVID19 infections in Gauteng province, South Africa๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ have continued as expected: A less severe wave with significantly fewer hospitalisations and deaths due to high levels of population immunity ๐Ÿ’ช

6/6
[Ends]

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More from @rid1tweets

May 12
[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

Here's an update of the latest #COVID19 indicators in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, where Omicron sublineages BA.4 & BA.5 are driving a 5th wave of infections

Spoiler: continued decoupling; hospitalisations and deaths remain low...

Thread ๐Ÿงต ../6
3,484 new #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ today, 7-day rolling avg at 3,105 ๐Ÿ“ˆ

Case incidence = 19.1 per 100k population, and up to 29% of BA.1 peak ๐Ÿ”๏ธ

Case rate up 27% compared to a week ago, but even though testing remains low it's showing signs of slowing again ๐Ÿง

2/6
Latest test % positivity in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ for week ending 7 May = 26.2% ๐Ÿšฉ

Testing remains significantly lower than before, not surprising... But while test % positivity is very high (1 in ~4 tests positive), it too appears to be flattening ๐Ÿคž

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Apr 27
[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

Gauteng, with ~25% of SA's population, is once again the epicentre of a resurgence of #Covid_19 in South Africa ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

A surge in infection rates, increasing demand on hospitalisations, reported deaths remain low...

Thread ๐Ÿงต ../n
Another 3,145 #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ today, 7-day rolling avg at 2,117 โฌ†๏ธ

Case incidence = 13.4 per 100k population, up to 20% of recent peak ๐Ÿ”๏ธ

Case rate up 173% week-on-week or currently doubling every 4.8 days ๐Ÿ“ˆ

2/n
Latest test % positivity in Gauteng๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ for week ending 23 Apr = 20.2% ๐Ÿšฉ

Not surprising given fewer people testing, but increase is steep, up from 11.9% a week prior. With 1 in every 5 tests returning a positive result, it also indicates many more cases going undetected ๐Ÿง

3/n
Read 7 tweets
Dec 8, 2021
[Thread] An update of the #Omicron -driven #4thWave of #COVID19 in GAUTENG ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

First, a summary of current indicators:


1/n
Switching to log scale here to understand the exponential growth of #COVID19 cases in Gauteng ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ



2/6
Early indications that #COVID19 cases in Gauteng may have passed an inflection point.

What is an inflection point:


3/6
Read 6 tweets
Oct 7, 2021
โ€œKnowledge is power, but it is much more powerful when it is shared.โ€

As part of @Wikimedia's @Wikipedia #WikipediaByUs campaign we celebrate access to knowledge.

Why is knowledge sharing important especially in a time of a pandemic? How can we counter misinformation? Thread ๐Ÿงต
Early on in the #COVID19 pandemic there was much fear, uncertainty, and misinformation. There still is!

As we gather more data, new research, more knowledge, our understanding improves and we can counter those uncertainties.

But that knowledge needs to be accessible too...
Numbers and statistics can be overwhelming, and so needs to also be shared in a way that's simple, clear and understandable

Just like a picture can tell a thousand words, graphs can put numbers and quantities into perspective, show trends, and tell a better story

#WikipediaByUs
Read 10 tweets
Jul 8, 2021
[Thread] Fellow Gautengers,

The #3rdWave of #COVID19 in #Gauteng has been devastating๐Ÿ˜ฉ

There are signs of hope, light at the end of the dark tunnel๐Ÿ’ก
Cases surpassed an inflection point and heading towards/possibly at a peak๐Ÿ—ป

But we must remain vigilant๐Ÿง

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
Over past 7 days, > 78k #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng, an avg of 11,266 per day, and up 6% week-on-week ๐Ÿ“ˆ

Case incidence rate at 73 new cases per 100k per day - highest infection rate seen by any province at any stage since the start of the pandemic โš ๏ธ

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
We need to wait for and see a sustained decrease in cases for 7 days to confirm a peak has been reached, i.e. 7-day rolling average showing <= 0% change week-on-week ๐Ÿ“‰

But rate of increase of cases has certainly slowed passing an inflection point... ๐Ÿคž

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
Read 15 tweets
Jul 5, 2021
It's turning!! ๐Ÿคž๐Ÿคž

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid #Gauteng #3rdWave #COVID19SA
This graph shows a 7-day rolling average, so what we are seeing is not the "weekend effect" as the 7-day average takes that into account. This dip gives some hope!
However, it's too early to say if Gauteng has actually peaked - need to wait a few more days to confirm that..
Of course, we're not out of the woods either; the curve can turn upwards again at any time if there are any further spikes due to cluster outbreaks and possible superspreader events...
Also, the infection rate is still very high and risk remains high so need to remain vigilant...
Read 7 tweets

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