With new #COVID19 cases in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ having peaked recently, promisingly cases didn't plateau but well on the decline now ๐
Current 7-day rolling avg at 1,609 or 10.2 per 100k, down 39% week-on-week and already down to 51% of recent peak ๐
2/6
Latest #COVID19 test % positivity in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ for week ending 21 May = 19.6% ๐
Testing has remained low, understandably, so test % positivity is naturally higher but after peaking it has continued to decline, confirming the decline in infections ๐
3/6
Promisingly, after a lag, hospital admissions in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ peaked over the past week ๐
Case hospitalisation ratio has been similar to Omicron BA.1 wave, but with reduced testing cases are underestimated
Hospital admissions peaked at ~35% of previous Omicron BA.1 wave ๐
4/6
Reported #COVID19 deaths in Gauteng ๐ฟ๐ฆ are still increasing, as expected due to the lag, but the rate of increase has slowed ๐ค
Further, deaths have remained significantly lower than that previous waves ๐
5/6
Again, trends in this BA.4 & BA.5 driven #5thWave of #COVID19 infections in Gauteng province, South Africa๐ฟ๐ฆ have continued as expected: A less severe wave with significantly fewer hospitalisations and deaths due to high levels of population immunity ๐ช
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[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ
Here's an update of the latest #COVID19 indicators in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ, where Omicron sublineages BA.4 & BA.5 are driving a 5th wave of infections
Spoiler: continued decoupling; hospitalisations and deaths remain low...
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3,484 new #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng ๐ฟ๐ฆ today, 7-day rolling avg at 3,105 ๐
Case incidence = 19.1 per 100k population, and up to 29% of BA.1 peak ๐๏ธ
Case rate up 27% compared to a week ago, but even though testing remains low it's showing signs of slowing again ๐ง
2/6
Latest test % positivity in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ for week ending 7 May = 26.2% ๐ฉ
Testing remains significantly lower than before, not surprising... But while test % positivity is very high (1 in ~4 tests positive), it too appears to be flattening ๐ค
[Thread] Update of #COVID19 numbers in Gauteng ๐ฟ๐ฆ
Gauteng, with ~25% of SA's population, is once again the epicentre of a resurgence of #Covid_19 in South Africa ๐ฟ๐ฆ
A surge in infection rates, increasing demand on hospitalisations, reported deaths remain low...
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Another 3,145 #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng ๐ฟ๐ฆ today, 7-day rolling avg at 2,117 โฌ๏ธ
Case incidence = 13.4 per 100k population, up to 20% of recent peak ๐๏ธ
Case rate up 173% week-on-week or currently doubling every 4.8 days ๐
2/n
Latest test % positivity in Gauteng๐ฟ๐ฆ for week ending 23 Apr = 20.2% ๐ฉ
Not surprising given fewer people testing, but increase is steep, up from 11.9% a week prior. With 1 in every 5 tests returning a positive result, it also indicates many more cases going undetected ๐ง
We need to wait for and see a sustained decrease in cases for 7 days to confirm a peak has been reached, i.e. 7-day rolling average showing <= 0% change week-on-week ๐
But rate of increase of cases has certainly slowed passing an inflection point... ๐ค
This graph shows a 7-day rolling average, so what we are seeing is not the "weekend effect" as the 7-day average takes that into account. This dip gives some hope!
However, it's too early to say if Gauteng has actually peaked - need to wait a few more days to confirm that..
Of course, we're not out of the woods either; the curve can turn upwards again at any time if there are any further spikes due to cluster outbreaks and possible superspreader events...
Also, the infection rate is still very high and risk remains high so need to remain vigilant...