Here's 6 findings on political attitudes to pique your interest - 1/8
First up, everyone’s talking about the Belfast/Good Fri Agmt these days. What does NI really think about it?
2/3 see it as still the best basis for governing NI
Most want further implementation (Bill of Rts, Civic Forum)
Most want some reform too e.g. Petition of Concern 2/8
Now then what about that other international agreement of some consequence for N.Ireland?
Knowledge of the #Protocol rose from 47% in 2020 to 65% in 2021.
Support for it rose too.
In 2021 people became more opinionated about the Protocol. Read our @ARK_info report for more 3/8
Opinions about the Protocol are related to those on Brexit. Alot can be explained by a trend seen since 2016.
A growing majority think #Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely.
This includes 47% Unionists as well as 67% Neithers & 83% Nationalists (who voted against it). 4/8
What about opinions on Irish unity in light of #Brexit?
41% say Brexit has made no difference to their views on unification, whilst 37% say it has made them more in favour. (This includes 38% of Neithers, 73% Nsts).
The trend among Unionists is to be more set against it. 5/8
As for views on UK Union/Irish Unity-
Fall in support for the Union tho it is the wish of the plurality.
Rise in support for Irish unity, though it is a minority.
39% think there will be a united Ireland in 20yrs.
37% think there will still be a United Kingdom by then too
6/8
#AE22 was new high for @allianceparty. They are getting better at turning ‘non-aligned’ identities into political engagement. But the cohort is shrinking.
There are 3 identity groups with little distance between them - similar to 20yrs ago, but then unionism was the largest
Predicting the outcome of the Assembly #Election in N.Ireland is straightforward enough if you know how.
There are a handful of key factors to bear in mind.
Nail all of these & you’ll be way ahead of the game come results day 🤓 #AE22 🏖️
1/8
#1: the Issues 📝
What concerns are raised on the door steps? On the airwaves? Social media? Street demos?
What real life problems are addressed in the manifestos?
What policies are dissected in political debate?
Find the common thread across these & ... oh 😶
Moving on💨
2/8
#2: the Parties🥳
What do the polls say [& do they tally]?
How trusted are their leaders, & how secure are they?
How did they perform in the last mandate?
Have they made major blunders?
Are they running too many or too few candidates?
How transfer-friendly are they, to whom?
3/8
HEADLINE: NI is divided over the subject, believe it or not.
47% think Protocol is appropriate; 47% disagree.
What's interesting is that this split hasn’t changed much since last poll in March.
Most think NI needs specific arrangements but they disagree over the Protocol.
2/8
The majority (57%) think there are economic opportunities for NI from the Protocol, but right now, the predominant view of its current impact is negative.
This graph shows positive-minus-negative results 👇
41% say Protocol has a positive impact on NI economy, 48% disagree. 3/8