Critical Threats Profile picture
May 28, 2022 5 tweets 6 min read Read on X
NEW | Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of #Severodonetsk without having fully encircled the city and will likely struggle to take ground in the city itself. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces in #Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts—attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in #Izyum and southeast to advance on #Siversk; they will likely struggle to accomplish either objective in the coming days. Image
#Russian forces in #Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of #Severodonestk rather than advancing west toward #Bakhmut. Image
Positions northeast of #Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by either #Russian or #Ukrainian forces. Image
#Russian forces continue to fortify their defensive positions along the southern axis and advance efforts to integrate the #Kherson region into #Russian economic and political structures. Image

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More from @criticalthreats

Jan 3
NEW | An SDF delegation met with the leader of HTS to negotiate “military issues” while SDF forces continued to fight Turkish-backed militias in northern Syria. (1/7)Image
The SDF is almost certainly both unable and unwilling to subordinate itself to the HTS-organized Defense Ministry at this time, given the organizational tasks implicit in that effort and the ongoing fighting with Turkish-backed forces. (2/7)
Reorganizing SDF formations under the HTS-organized Defense Ministry, regardless of whether or not the SDF formations are reflagged or reorganized, would probably require the SDF to break contact with the SNA. (3/7)
Read 7 tweets
Dec 31, 2024
NEW I Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Russia's demand that Ukraine renounce its right to sovereignty and territorial integrity as a precondition to start peace talks, indicating that Russia is not interested in good faith negotiations. 1/9 Image
The Kremlin appears to be prioritizing Russia's force generation requirements and domestic political stability over efforts to mitigate economic pressure and labor shortages going into 2025. 2/9
US President Joe Biden announced an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth $2.5 billion on December 30. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Dec 27, 2024
NEW | Several trends have placed Syria on a trajectory that is increasingly likely to lead to ethno-sectarian conflict. This most-dangerous scenario is not a foregone conclusion, however. 🧵 (1/8) Image
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Some reports indicate that HTS-affiliated individuals have killed, arrested, and kidnapped Alawites and other Syrians for affiliation with the Assad regime. (2/8)
These incidents have taken place outside of formal and documented judicial processes, which may significantly heighten sectarian tension between the majority and empowered Sunni and the minority Alawites. (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Dec 24, 2024
NEW: Building Syria’s Army | Syrian armed groups agreed to “dissolve” themselves and merge under the HTS-led Defense Ministry.

This does not mean that Syrian opposition forces will answer to the Defense Ministry in practice, however. 🧵 Image
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It is not immediately clear what groups outside of HTS-led and SNA-led structures participated in the meeting, nor is it clear what concrete steps the groups agreed to as part of dissolving themselves and merging under the HTS-led Defense Ministry.
HTS will likely absorb the various armed groups and functionally reflag them as new Syrian army units as a way to ameliorate concerns about losing power among various leaders.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 24, 2024
NEW I The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Syrian interim government stated it will discuss mechanisms for disarming and dissolving the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) with SDF leadership, according to unspecified SDF sources. 1/8 Image
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The sources cited by a Syrian journalist claimed that the interim government will avoid any negotiation to establish a decentralized system that grants some autonomy to Kurdish-governed areas. 2/8
HTS and Turkey have called for a unified Syrian state without federal regions, which CTP-ISW previously identified as implicitly demanding that the SDF disarm and cease to exist as an autonomous organization. 3/8
Read 9 tweets
Dec 20, 2024
NEW | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed readiness to help Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) form a new political system in Syria. Erdogan said that Turkey could offer expertise and guidance to this end. 🧵 (1/7) Image
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The SDF and SNA continued to clash along the lines of control in Aleppo Province on December 20. The head of the SDF media center reported “fierce clashes” on Qere Qozaq bridge, which spans the Euphrates River. (2/7)
The SDF deployed forces to clear towns of opposition forces east of Raqqa City on December 19. Local sources reported that opposition forces took control of Madan and five other nearby towns from the SDF. The SDF had seized these areas from the Assad regime on December 6. (3/7)
Read 7 tweets

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