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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
May 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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NEW | Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of #Severodonetsk without having fully encircled the city and will likely struggle to take ground in the city itself. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces in #Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts—attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in #Izyum and southeast to advance on #Siversk; they will likely struggle to accomplish either objective in the coming days. Image
#Russian forces in #Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of #Severodonestk rather than advancing west toward #Bakhmut. Image
Positions northeast of #Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by either #Russian or #Ukrainian forces. Image
#Russian forces continue to fortify their defensive positions along the southern axis and advance efforts to integrate the #Kherson region into #Russian economic and political structures. Image

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
Apr 3
NEW | The Kremlin is strengthening its strategic relationship with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

The AES helps the Kremlin supplant Western influence, pose as a great power, and create opportunities to threaten NATO's southern flank.🧵Image
The three foreign ministers from the AES states traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov on April 3 and 4 as part of the first sessions of “AES-Russia consultations.” 2/7
The AES is a strategic project for Russia that advances its goals to supplant Western influence in Africa and assert itself as a revitalized great power.

The AES functions as a pro-Russian economic, military, and political bloc. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Apr 2
Reports of Houthi fighters’ formation of the Nasrallah Battalion in Iraq and Houthi fighters’ integration into PMF units, if accurate, may be consistent with growing Houthi cooperation with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in recent months.🧵 Image
Yemeni Media Minister in Aden, Muammar al Eryani, claimed on March 26 that 700-1,200 Houthi fighters who fled from Syria after the fall of the Assad regime have formed the “Nasrallah battalion” in Iraq.
The director of the Iraqi Observatory for Rights and Freedom similarly stated on April 1 that the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is integrating Houthi fighters from the Nasrallah Battalion and Houthi drone and missile experts into PMF units in Diyala, Baghdad, and Jurf al Sakhr.

The director is likely referring to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that are part of the PMF.
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 24
NEW | Al Qaeda’s Somali affiliate al Shabaab is attempting to overwhelm Somali forces around Mogadishu and in central Somalia.🧵⬇️🇸🇴Image
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Al Shabaab has escalated attacks around Mogadishu, including an attempt to assassinate the Somali president, and increasingly infiltrated the capital outskirts since the beginning of Ramadan at the end of February. 2/9
The group had not escalated the rate or severity of its attacks in Mogadishu or its southern outskirts as of mid-March.

The brazenness of al Shabaab's activity, however, highlights the group’s infiltration around Mogadishu and the heightened publicization of this activity. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 19
NEW I President Donald Trump’s March 5 letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei set a two-month deadline to reach a new nuclear deal, according to an Axios report. Iran is very unlikely to agree to a new deal on a two-month timetable given its current policies on negotiations. 1/6Image
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Trump’s May 2025 nuclear deal deadline would expire one month before the E3’s (Germany, France, and Italy) reported June 2025 deadline to conclude a nuclear deal before the reimposition of snapback sanctions. 2/6
Prior negotiations, including the 2015 nuclear deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), have taken much longer and fell well short of the current US goals in negotiations. The JCPOA took 20 months to negotiate. 3/6
Read 7 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 12
The risk of sectarian violence from Syria spilling into Iraq is increasing.A newly formed Shia group called the Ya Ali Popular Formations announced on March 11 that it has begun to pursue Jabhat al Nusra members and supporters. They are likely referring to Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), given that Jabhat al Nusra was the predecessor group to HTS.🧵Image
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Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al Sudani reportedly withdrew the PMF Service and Retirement Law from the Iraqi parliamentary agenda on March 11.

The PMF is an Iraqi state security service that includes many Iranian-backed militias.
Unidentified actors conducted a drone strike targeting a Turkish base in Ninewa Province, Iraq, on March 12. This attack comes as Iran has appeared increasingly frustrated with Turkish influence in Syria and Turkish regional policy.
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Mar 7
NEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials explicitly rejected making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire on March 6. (1/4)Image
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Putin stated during a visit to the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation's Moscow branch on March 6 that Russia does not intend to "give in to anyone" or make any compromises in future peace negotiations. Putin stated that Russia must choose a peace option that best suits Russia and will ensure peace in the long-term. (2/4)
Putin noted that Russian societal unity is critical for Russian victory in Ukraine. Putin alluded to the Russian Revolution, noted that Russian society collapsed during the First World War, and urged Russians to maintain support and unity as the war continues. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets

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