Critical Threats Profile picture
May 28, 2022 5 tweets 6 min read Read on X
NEW | Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of #Severodonetsk without having fully encircled the city and will likely struggle to take ground in the city itself. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces in #Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts—attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in #Izyum and southeast to advance on #Siversk; they will likely struggle to accomplish either objective in the coming days. Image
#Russian forces in #Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of #Severodonestk rather than advancing west toward #Bakhmut. Image
Positions northeast of #Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by either #Russian or #Ukrainian forces. Image
#Russian forces continue to fortify their defensive positions along the southern axis and advance efforts to integrate the #Kherson region into #Russian economic and political structures. Image

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More from @criticalthreats

Mar 7
NEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin and other Kremlin officials explicitly rejected making any concessions in future peace negotiations or accepting any US, European, or Ukrainian peace proposals and the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) rejected the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire on March 6. (1/4)Image
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Putin stated during a visit to the Defenders of the Fatherland Foundation's Moscow branch on March 6 that Russia does not intend to "give in to anyone" or make any compromises in future peace negotiations. Putin stated that Russia must choose a peace option that best suits Russia and will ensure peace in the long-term. (2/4)
Putin noted that Russian societal unity is critical for Russian victory in Ukraine. Putin alluded to the Russian Revolution, noted that Russian society collapsed during the First World War, and urged Russians to maintain support and unity as the war continues. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Mar 5
NEW I Russia offered to mediate talks between the United States and Iran, according to unspecified sources speaking to Bloomberg. Russian mediation would reportedly cover Iranian nuclear activities and support for the Axis of Resistance. It is far from clear that Russia would help secure US interests through this mediation, however, especially regarding Iranian support for the Axis of Resistance. 1/4
Russia has cooperated extensively with the Axis of Resistance over the past decade. This cooperation has included working with Iran and Iranian-backed militias to attack US forces in the Middle East. Russian and Iranian-backed forces conducted a combined attack on US forces in Syria in 2018, for example. 2/4
Russia also supported the Axis of Resistance against Israel throughout the October 7 War. The Kremlin provided targeting intelligence to the Houthis to support attacks on international shipping and US vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. 3/4
Read 5 tweets
Feb 23
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov claimed on February 22 that US and Russian officials are planning to meet within the next two weeks in an unspecified third country about bilateral relations.🧵 Image
Ryabkov claimed that the United States and Russia are undertaking two "parallel" but "politically interconnected" negotiation tracks that will discuss the war in Ukraine and US-Russian bilateral relations.
Russia is prioritizing its demand for the United States to return six Russian diplomatic properties, likely referring to properties US authorities previously seized on charges of being used for intelligence purposes.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 21
NEW | The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) government agreed to several deals, including a Russian naval base, during separate diplomatic meetings with Iran and Russia in mid-February. 1/7 Image
A Russian naval base in Sudan would support Russia’s strategic objective of threatening NATO’s southern flank from Africa and the Mediterranean Sea while decreasing Russian reliance on bases in Syria after the collapse of the Bashar al Assad regime in December 2024. 2/7
The SAF also signed several political and economic deals with Iran in mid-February as Iran seeks to grow bilateral ties with the SAF and secure an Iranian Red Sea naval base. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Feb 20
NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 captured the South Kivu provincial capital, Bukavu, and has continued to advance on several axes in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). 1/9 🧵🇨🇩🇷🇼Image
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M23 advanced south from Bukavu toward Uvira, the second-most-populated city in South Kivu near Lake Tanganyika & Burundi’s economic capital, Bujumbura.

M23 also advanced southwest toward Kamituga, a gold mining hub and a gateway town to the south-central regions of the DRC. 2/9 Image
M23 simultaneously restarted an offensive 265 miles north of Bukavu in North Kivu province along the RN2 toward the district capital of Lubero.

Lubero town is the last FARDC stronghold before the commercial hub Butembo. 3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
Feb 19
NEW | Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on February 18, but Russia continues to display no indications that it is prepared to make any meaningful concessions on Ukraine as assessed by Western intelligence and US officials in line with ISW's longstanding assessment. (1/13)Image
Many recent Russian statements show that the Kremlin remains uninterested in engaging in good faith negotiations and retains his objective of destroying the Ukrainian state while the Kremlin has offered no public indication that it would materially compromise. (2/13)
Russia attempted to posture itself as on equal terms with the United States during the February 18 Russian-American talks in Saudi Arabia, focusing its official public rhetoric about the meeting on US-Russian relations and not the war in Ukraine. (3/13)
Read 13 tweets

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