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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
May 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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NEW | Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of #Severodonetsk without having fully encircled the city and will likely struggle to take ground in the city itself. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces in #Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts—attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in #Izyum and southeast to advance on #Siversk; they will likely struggle to accomplish either objective in the coming days. Image
#Russian forces in #Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of #Severodonestk rather than advancing west toward #Bakhmut. Image
Positions northeast of #Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by either #Russian or #Ukrainian forces. Image
#Russian forces continue to fortify their defensive positions along the southern axis and advance efforts to integrate the #Kherson region into #Russian economic and political structures. Image

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
Aug 28
NEW | US-supported Somali forces are encountering strong resistance as they try to clear IS Somalia Province’s (ISS) cave complexes in northern Somalia’s Puntland region.

The ongoing operations are likely targeting IS global leadership and some of ISS’s final strongholds.🧵Image
Image
Puntland forces with US air support have been conducting operations against ISS in the Ballade valley for over a week.

US and Puntland officials said on August 26 that they had concluded a two-week joint operation against “ISIS leadership safe havens.” x.com/USAfricaComman…

Puntland forces have continued their operations, however, and ISS ambushes, sniper fire, and suicide commando attacks since August 22 have allegedly killed more than 50 Puntland soldiers, although Puntland officials have disputed these figures.
The operation is likely targeting high-ranking ISS and possibly IS global leadership, who have so far evaded the 2025 counter-ISS offensive.

Global IS leadership figures, including suspected IS emir or global operational head Abdulqadir Mumin, are likely present in the area.
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Aug 7
Qatari-brokered peace talks between the DRC and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels will likely drag out as both sides have been unwilling to make concessions on the central issue of M23’s territorial control, making a sustainable long-term agreement unlikely.

The lack of clarity around this issue will likely be a major obstacle in the upcoming round of talks tentatively scheduled for August 8.🧵Image
The DRC and M23 signed a Qatari-brokered statement of principles in late July that committed both sides to a ceasefire but deferred negotiations over the “root causes” of the conflict to be resolved in the second stage of talks aimed at reaching a final peace deal by August 18. 2/8
The two sides will likely be unable to clearly resolve the issue of M23’s territorial control and other points of divergence in a sustainable fashion that includes agreed-upon dispute-resolution mechanisms within the 10-day time frame in mid-August, however.

The DRC and M23 have refused to make major concessions on territorial control in the talks and have signaled they are unlikely to do so. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jul 31
NEW | The United States sanctioned Senior Supreme Leader Adviser Ali Shamkhani’s son, Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, and his multinational shipping network on July 30 for generating tens of billions of dollars in revenue for the Shamkhani family and the Iranian regime. (1/6) Image
The US Treasury Department sanctioned 12 individuals, 52 vessels, and 53 entities, including 15 shipping firms, tied to Hossein Shamkhani’s network to disrupt Iranian and Russian exports of petroleum products and other goods. (2/6)
Hossein Shamkhani manages a fleet of oil tankers and containerships through several UAE-based companies. One of the companies is involved in shipping missiles, drone components, and dual-use goods from Iran to Russia to support Russia’s war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian oil. (3/6)
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jul 28
NEW | Al Shabaab captured Mahas, a district capital in central Somalia that the Somali government and its allies had controlled since 2014.

The advance sets conditions for the group to escalate attacks on major towns across central Somalia, including along the Ethiopian border. Image
Mahas is the group's latest gain in central Somalia this year, where it has recaptured swaths of territory that it lost in 2022.

The group reconnected its territory in central Somalia and southern Somalia in March and recaptured the district capitals Adan Yabal and Moqokori in April and early July, respectively.

CTP warned after the fall of Moqokori that al Shabaab would target Mahas in the "coming days and weeks."
Meanwhile, US forces have been concentrating their counterterrorism efforts on northern Somalia and supporting local Puntland State forces that are fighting IS's Somalia Province.

@USAfricaCommand conducted a rare ground raid that captured the IS Somalia finance emir on July 26.
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jul 5
NEW | An unspecified high-ranking Iranian official cited by Amwaj Media on July 4 reported that Iran plans to resume indirect nuclear negotiations with the United States, but the conditions that Iran will reportedly present would require unspecified guarantees that the US would not strike Iran. 🧵Image
Such a guarantee would be inconsistent with the Trump administration’s stated position on future strikes on Iran’s facilities. The unspecified Iranian official told Amwaj that Iran is seeking a guarantee in negotiations that the United States will not conduct any additional strikes on Iran.”
European officials are concerned that Iran may try to develop a nuclear weapon to deter future attacks and that Iran may be able to build a weapon in secret unless a nuclear agreement enables the IAEA to resume inspections.
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jun 28
NEW | US and Israeli airstrikes on the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) between June 12 and 24 reportedly destroyed components of Iran’s nuclear program that would be necessary for weaponization. The strikes destroyed the Uranium Metal Conversion Plant at the ENTC, which Iran could have used to transform uranium gas into dense metal in a process called metallization. This process is one of the last steps required to form the explosive core of an atomic bomb.Image
Iran may have begun repair operations at the Natanz Enrichment Complex. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 27 shows that Iran has filled in a crater that was formed by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. The imagery shows what appears to be two tents and a truck present at the impact site.
Israeli strikes targeted senior Iranian military and security officials across multiple branches, likely in an effort to degrade Iran’s command and control structure. Iranian media confirmed on June 28 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed 56 Artesh members, including at least three Artesh generals and 16 conscript soldiers. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated media reported on June 28 that Israeli strikes killed Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Intelligence Organization Deputy Director Brigadier General Mehdi Nemati. Nemati reportedly fought alongside former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in Iraq and Syria for several years.
Read 5 tweets

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