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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
May 28, 2022 • 5 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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NEW | Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of #Severodonetsk without having fully encircled the city and will likely struggle to take ground in the city itself. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces in #Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts—attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in #Izyum and southeast to advance on #Siversk; they will likely struggle to accomplish either objective in the coming days. Image
#Russian forces in #Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of #Severodonestk rather than advancing west toward #Bakhmut. Image
Positions northeast of #Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by either #Russian or #Ukrainian forces. Image
#Russian forces continue to fortify their defensive positions along the southern axis and advance efforts to integrate the #Kherson region into #Russian economic and political structures. Image

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
Feb 20
NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 captured the South Kivu provincial capital, Bukavu, and has continued to advance on several axes in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). 1/9 🧵🇨🇩🇷🇼Image
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M23 advanced south from Bukavu toward Uvira, the second-most-populated city in South Kivu near Lake Tanganyika & Burundi’s economic capital, Bujumbura.

M23 also advanced southwest toward Kamituga, a gold mining hub and a gateway town to the south-central regions of the DRC. 2/9 Image
M23 simultaneously restarted an offensive 265 miles north of Bukavu in North Kivu province along the RN2 toward the district capital of Lubero.

Lubero town is the last FARDC stronghold before the commercial hub Butembo. 3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Feb 19
NEW | Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on February 18, but Russia continues to display no indications that it is prepared to make any meaningful concessions on Ukraine as assessed by Western intelligence and US officials in line with ISW's longstanding assessment. (1/13)Image
Many recent Russian statements show that the Kremlin remains uninterested in engaging in good faith negotiations and retains his objective of destroying the Ukrainian state while the Kremlin has offered no public indication that it would materially compromise. (2/13)
Russia attempted to posture itself as on equal terms with the United States during the February 18 Russian-American talks in Saudi Arabia, focusing its official public rhetoric about the meeting on US-Russian relations and not the war in Ukraine. (3/13)
Read 13 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Feb 19
NEW | Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-Damascus Negotiations: A Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) commander stated that the SDF and the governing body in northeast Syria agreed to merge their forces into the Syrian Defense Ministry on February 17. There still appear to be several outstanding issues in negotiations between the SDF and the Syrian interim government, but both parties appear to be engaging with one another constructively. (1/4)Image
SDF Negotiating Position: SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi is under tremendous pressure from internal SDF rivals, external Kurdish rivals, longtime enemies, and his allies to integrate with the Damascus government. This pressure appears to be pushing the SDF to gradually moderate its demands. Abdi probably sees an opportunity to avoid a major conflict with Damascus and solidify his own position, though he presumably recognizes that integration with the Syrian army is fraught with risk given the outstanding issues regarding integration. (2/4)
Iraqi Financial System and Iranian-backed Militias: The Iraqi Central Bank reportedly banned five local banks from US dollar transactions to combat money laundering and smuggling. The Iraqi Central Bank may have banned these banks under US pressure. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Feb 18
NEW I The Kremlin reiterated its demands that Ukraine cede additional territory in eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and disband the Ukrainian military in the future while continuing to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make territorial concessions itself in any future peace negotiations. 1/9Image
Lavrov and Nebenzya also categorically rejected European involvement in future peace negotiations and accused European countries of being aggressive toward Russia. 2/9
The Kremlin also appears to be resurrecting Putin's previous demands and information operations aimed at delegitimizing Ukraine and its government in the eyes of the West – notably ahead of the February 18 Russia-US bilateral meeting in Saudi Arabia. 3/9
Read 10 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Feb 7
NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels declared a unilateral “humanitarian” ceasefire in the eastern DRC ahead of peace talks scheduled for February 7 and 8.

M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6Image
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A long-term peace agreement is unlikely as the DRC still refuses to negotiate with M23, M23 and Rwanda still hold a military advantage to push for their maximalist demands, and there is not unanimous confidence in the regional blocs (EAC & SADC) as impartial mediators. 2/6
The DRC, M23, and Rwanda may be open to short-term ceasefires, however, as they seek to reset and set conditions for future offensives.

Both M23 and FARDC have used previous pauses in fighting to reset militarily and launch new offensives. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jan 18
NEW I Both Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the Houthi movement ceased military operations against Israel after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, which underscores that the October 7 War was a regional conflict between Iran and its Axis of Resistance and Israel. 1/7 Image
The Prime Minister’s office said that the ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages should start at 0900 ET on January 19 after the Israeli cabinet approved the ceasefire on January 17. 2/7
The opening attacks by the Houthis, the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah were de-facto declarations of war against Israel that escalated and regionalized the war. Israel responded to these attacks to defend itself. 3/7
Read 8 tweets

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