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Adam Isacson Profile picture
@adam_wola
Jun 2, 2022 • 8 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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A brief thread about migration trends in #Mexico, based on Mexican government data updated through April, and through May for asylum seekers.

5 months into 2022, Mexico has already received its 3rd-highest annual total of asylum requests. At this pace 2022 will be 2d after 2021.
New asylum applications in #Mexico have declined for two consecutive months, though.

This is from the latest summary by Mexico's refugee agency @comar_sg, posted today: gob.mx/comar/articulo…
Far fewer people applying for asylum in #Mexico this year are from #Haiti, compared to last year. #Honduras is back in the number-1 position, followed by #Cuba.
April saw #Mexico's migration authorities apprehend their 5th-largest monthly number of migrants: 30,980 people.
Unlike in the past, half of migrants apprehended in #Mexico in April were _not_ from #ElSalvador, #Guatemala, or #Honduras.

Many this year have come from (in declining order) #Cuba, #Nicaragua, #Colombia, #Venezuela, #Ecuador, #Haiti, #Chile (kids of Haitian parents), #Peru.
US deportations of Mexicans into #Mexico are up. April deportations to the dangerous state of Tamaulipas (3,804) hit their highest level since November 2020.
Source docs:

- Mexico Unidad de Política Migratoria: politicamigratoria.gob.mx/es/PoliticaMig…

- @comar_sg: gob.mx/comar/articulo…
See all 51 of @WOLA_org's current border and migration infographics at borderoversight.org/infographics/

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More from @adam_wola

Adam Isacson Profile picture
Sep 2
Lethal force against a civilian vessel in international waters is a war crime if not in self-defense, which this video does not show. Only non-lethal actions, like warning shots or disabling fire, are allowed.

“Being suspected of carrying drugs” doesn't carry a death sentence.
The US military's own standards for these situations are frustratingly vague due to the Standing Rules of Engagement / Use of Force being partially classified.

See Enclosure H here: esd.whs.mil/Portals/54/Doc…i. (U) Force will only be used in self-defense unless otherwise directed by the SecDef. The following general guidelines apply: (1) (U) Unit Self-Defense. Unit commanders retain the inherent right and obligation of unit self-defense from a hostile act or demonstrated hostile intent, including defense of other DOD personnel and US LEAs in the vicinity. (2) (U) Use of Force in Self-Defense. The right to use force in self-defense may not be used to justify the substitution of DOD personnel for US or HN law enforcement personnel or for HN military forces on CDrelated deployments acting in a law...
In 2001 Peruvian forces, acting on US-provided intelligence, shot down a planeload of US missionaries over the Amazon.

Bad things happen, often, when forces kill civilians aboard vessels or aircraft without a clear self-defense justification.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_Peru…
Read 4 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Jun 11
What happened at Fort Bragg yesterday is very grave.

Boos and catcalls from uniformed Army personnel responding to Trump's goading have almost no precedent in US history and would be unusual in most of Latin America. (1/9)
Listen to the troops boo the free press as Trump calls reporters “the fake news.” (2/9)
Listen to the soldiers booing former president Joe Biden. (3/9)
Read 9 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Dec 13, 2024
I'm not a big Biden defender either. But we need to address this notion that Biden somehow swung the door open to migrants.

He kept in place the harshest ban on asylum ever: Title 42. It just didn't deter a migrant population that changed dramatically. 1/15
During Donald Trump’s term, 90+% of migrants were from Mexico and Central America (blue, green, brown, yellow). If you were a migrant from those countries, your probability of being released into the US after apprehension didn’t change much after Biden’s inauguration. 2/15 Image
(An exception is unaccompanied children from Central America: Biden stopped Trump’s practice of expelling them, alone, back into their countries regardless of protection needs. The moral argument for doing that is self-evident, and it didn’t move the needle much overall.) 3/15
Read 17 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Aug 6, 2024
Tim Walz, not a foreign policy guy, didn't have a deep record on Latin America as a member of Congress. But he voted against the #Colombia and #Peru free trade agreements, and co-sponsored a 2009 resolution condemning the coup in #Honduras.
Colombia vote:

Peru vote:

Honduras sponsors: clerk.house.gov/Votes/2011781?…
congress.gov/congressional-…
congress.gov/bill/111th-con…
Walz was also a co-sponsor of the Latin America Military Training Review Act (H.R. 2567, 2009 - )congress.gov/bill/111th-con…
Read 4 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Dec 19, 2022
It's so perplexing that people are convinced that Title 42 slowed migration, and that its lifting will be a major change.

Here's what happened to single-adult migrant encounters at the US-Mexico border after Title 42 went into effect.
Title 42 did not similarly increase child and family migration over what came before. But it didn't reduce it, either.
The 4 countries whose citizens could be expelled across the land border into Mexico? Title 42 slowed growth in their migration, though it remained high. But citizens of all other countries surpassed them since last summer.
Read 9 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Jun 29, 2022
After about 2 1/2 years, the commander of #Colombia’s army, Gen. Eduardo Zapateiro, is leaving. This is not a bad thing.

elespectador.com/judicial/me-de…

His exit is long overdue. A 7-tweet thread:
Why overdue? I can't speak to the corruption allegations @petrogustavo hints at here, in a recent interview with @estoescambio.

Rather, Gen. Zapateiro has been most problematic because of his public messaging on human rights and civil-military relations.

cambiocolombia.com/articulo/poder…
The General posted this charming tweet, a video of slithering snakes, the day after #Colombia’s transitional justice tribunal concluded that the military killed 6,402 civilians between 2002-2008. Those denouncing “false positives,” you see, were reptiles.

Read 8 tweets

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