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Adam Isacson Profile picture
@adam_wola
Jun 2, 2022 • 8 tweets • 8 min read • Read on X
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A brief thread about migration trends in #Mexico, based on Mexican government data updated through April, and through May for asylum seekers.

5 months into 2022, Mexico has already received its 3rd-highest annual total of asylum requests. At this pace 2022 will be 2d after 2021.
New asylum applications in #Mexico have declined for two consecutive months, though.

This is from the latest summary by Mexico's refugee agency @comar_sg, posted today: gob.mx/comar/articulo…
Far fewer people applying for asylum in #Mexico this year are from #Haiti, compared to last year. #Honduras is back in the number-1 position, followed by #Cuba.
April saw #Mexico's migration authorities apprehend their 5th-largest monthly number of migrants: 30,980 people.
Unlike in the past, half of migrants apprehended in #Mexico in April were _not_ from #ElSalvador, #Guatemala, or #Honduras.

Many this year have come from (in declining order) #Cuba, #Nicaragua, #Colombia, #Venezuela, #Ecuador, #Haiti, #Chile (kids of Haitian parents), #Peru.
US deportations of Mexicans into #Mexico are up. April deportations to the dangerous state of Tamaulipas (3,804) hit their highest level since November 2020.
Source docs:

- Mexico Unidad de Política Migratoria: politicamigratoria.gob.mx/es/PoliticaMig…

- @comar_sg: gob.mx/comar/articulo…
See all 51 of @WOLA_org's current border and migration infographics at borderoversight.org/infographics/

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More from @adam_wola

Adam Isacson Profile picture
Aug 6
Tim Walz, not a foreign policy guy, didn't have a deep record on Latin America as a member of Congress. But he voted against the #Colombia and #Peru free trade agreements, and co-sponsored a 2009 resolution condemning the coup in #Honduras.
Colombia vote:

Peru vote:

Honduras sponsors: clerk.house.gov/Votes/2011781?…
congress.gov/congressional-…
congress.gov/bill/111th-con…
Walz was also a co-sponsor of the Latin America Military Training Review Act (H.R. 2567, 2009 - )congress.gov/bill/111th-con…
Read 4 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Dec 19, 2022
It's so perplexing that people are convinced that Title 42 slowed migration, and that its lifting will be a major change.

Here's what happened to single-adult migrant encounters at the US-Mexico border after Title 42 went into effect.
Title 42 did not similarly increase child and family migration over what came before. But it didn't reduce it, either.
The 4 countries whose citizens could be expelled across the land border into Mexico? Title 42 slowed growth in their migration, though it remained high. But citizens of all other countries surpassed them since last summer.
Read 9 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Jun 29, 2022
After about 2 1/2 years, the commander of #Colombia’s army, Gen. Eduardo Zapateiro, is leaving. This is not a bad thing.

elespectador.com/judicial/me-de…

His exit is long overdue. A 7-tweet thread:
Why overdue? I can't speak to the corruption allegations @petrogustavo hints at here, in a recent interview with @estoescambio.

Rather, Gen. Zapateiro has been most problematic because of his public messaging on human rights and civil-military relations.

cambiocolombia.com/articulo/poder…
The General posted this charming tweet, a video of slithering snakes, the day after #Colombia’s transitional justice tribunal concluded that the military killed 6,402 civilians between 2002-2008. Those denouncing “false positives,” you see, were reptiles.

Read 8 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Jun 29, 2022
In the Cancún #Mexico airport, @INAMI_mx agents pulled prominent #Colombia journalist @SebastianForerr aside and prevented him from entering the country.

A plainclothes US @CBP officer was right there with the Mexican agents. He canceled Forero’s valid US visa with black marker:
So next time you hear @lopezobrador_ go on about #Mexico's sovereignty and US imperialism, recall that his government has invited US agents into Mexico's international airports to screen passengers.
This part 1/2:

"The curious thing is that, alongside the INM agents was another official, of US origin, dressed in civilian clothes, who also reviewed documents, asked questions, and checked travelers' cell phones: their WhatsApp, their Facebook profiles, their photo albums."
Read 4 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
Jun 3, 2022
Calling Rodolfo Hernández the “Trump of #Colombia” seems off to me. Here, I see more parallels with all-over-the-map populists like AMLO or Bukele. And if Hernández wins, US-Colombian relations could resemble current relations with Mexico or El Salvador…

responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/06/03/how…
…by which I mean: the Biden administration distances itself from the president and civilian leadership, even as it pursues the closest possible military-to-military relationship. Which isn't great.
(Of course, the "military-to-military relationship being stronger than the civilian relationship" thing is even more likely if Petro wins.)
Read 4 tweets
Adam Isacson Profile picture
May 17, 2022
Thank you. Weird blowup of my profile pic aside, I'd be glad to talk about all of these.
“Over 750k KNOWN gotaways”

Over what time period? The CBP budget request says USBP apprehended or turned back 82.6% last year. Getting to 90% would require huge $.

If got-aways are 750K, then the total migrant number would be over 4 million, plus POEs??

dhs.gov/sites/default/… Image
“Over 1 mil released”

This is people seeking protection. Mostly voluntarily. ~460K fled dictatorships in Cuba, Nica, Ven, Rus. Plus Ukr. Send them back?

That’s a humanitarian crisis. But not a security disaster. Nor is it new: 600K under Trump in 2019.

Read 8 tweets

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