Thread by @ZimermanErik

A word on Ukraine's favorite front, the #Kharkhov front. Wanting to first comment on the more critical areas, did not get a chance yet to comment on this upon my return, but may be indicative of a significant change. Until now, as hard as it might be to believe, the official

territorial claims of both countries, specifically the MoDs has been relatively accurate and matching. Of course with plenty of exceptions, especially when there is still fighting in a town or city, one or both parties have prematurely claimed control over it. And while Ukrainian

military claims & PR efforts can be & often are fantastical (Ghost of Kiev, Snake Island etc), & both MoDs have been known to issue incorrect information, what I am referring to is that there has not been widely differing claims (of many kilometers & several towns/cities deep)

of the front line. In general, by following both MoDs, one will get a fairly accurate (if somewhat delayed) picture of where the front line is. If we add reliable sources of each camp, then if one knows how to filter through it, we get an even more accurate and more up to date

picture. Reviewing the days events while I was incommunicado I see signs of this pattern breaking, especially on the Kharkhiv front but elsewhere as well. This may indicate that one (or both) of the parties is lying more than previously and may indicate a certain desperateness.

We shall see if that turns out to be a new pattern or not. In any event, the quick example here, according to #Ukrainian sources, the northern front all along the #Kharkhov front is near or at the #Russian border. However, we see recent thermal activity pointing to what appears

to be yet another Russian counterattack (in this sparsely populated front on the side of the RU forces) that is heading southwards and is threatening the T2104 highway (the Kharkhov - Staryi Saltiv road). Targets seem to be Shestakove and Fedorivka amont other areas.

Specifically the advances seem to be along the ridges and around Ruski Tyshky an effort to cut off any forces still north with the forest on their western flank. It is difficult to reconcile what we see here with the Ukrainian account of what is happening on this front.

An even stranger situation occurs east of the wide part of the Siverskyi Donets River. What is actually happening on this front is far from clear to me, and will update further as it gets clearer. What seems to be the case however is that it is a troop-trap for some of the best

Ukrainian units who advance and retreat here repeatedly, rather than holding the crumbling front in the Donbass.