Updated satellite imagery indeed shows that the bridge at #Bohorodychne remains intact (as of yesterday June 7th), as we supposed. #Russian forces have indeed crossed here and are fighting for the town south of the Siverskyi donets river. There is also potentially a new crossing
set up west of the bridge, but it is unclear as it may be cloud or smoke disruption. We cannot make out the bridge at #Svyatogorsk near the Cave Monastery due to cloud cover though RU drone footage shown here indicates that it has been partially destroyed by retreating UA forces.
The monastery seems to be largely intact as we can see, thanks in part to an agreement between the combatants, potentially including the mayor of the city who is already being accused (typically) by #Kiev as a traitor. We can see that as of yesterday the town was still under fire
Some shelling continues tonight, but nowhere near the monastery which may be out of bounds by agreement (which is nice to see). This may indicate that the town is not yet under RU control, but is more likely some UA counterbattery attacks. The lack of a thermal footprint in
Bohorodychne for about 30 hours is interesting. It could mean that fighting is now very close quarters, that RU has in fact seized the town already, or that its crossing and attack failed and it is regrouping. We should know more on that soon. It has important repercussions since
if only #Sviatohirsk (in UAnian) has been captured by RU forces, and the bridge there has been destroyed, RU will have failed in this important crossing effort, delaying its goals with all the related consequences that go along with that (see quoted thread on this effort).
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
An update on this operation. The #Russian crossing was indeed successful. While fighting continued in the area until the 8th, #Sviatohirsk is fully in RU control. #Tetianivka across the river was captured, as well as #Pryshyb & its high grounds. Fighting in Bohordychne continues
& it has held already longer than I first expected. However the RU forces retain fire control over the bridge & large parts of the town & should fully control it in the near future. As of our last known data, the bridge remained standing, though RU forces already have alternative
crossings in the area. Reports indicate RU forces are already advancing towards #Sydorove which is a key town to hold as we discussed earlier. However, the more interesting question is the RU direction after that or even before that. Strong UA forces still hold the front at
Related to this front around #Balakliia, and the #Izium supply hub, which I spoke about in the quoted thread, I wish to speculate about another possible future development. The forests west of Izium are scenes of some of the fiercest & least reported aspects of the war recently.
As I have mentioned, UA forces' ability to operate in dense wooded areas has steadily increased. It is clear to everyone that the Izium supply hub, road & rail junctions, and river/forest passageway to the south are critical to the RU offensive. While RU forces achieved an
important & impressive victory in its capture, which UA forces fought desperately to prevent, the breakthrough remained narrow for a long time. Only recently has Russia widened it towards the east (less dense territory) & connected it by rail to the Kupiansk line as discussed.
Massive forest fire has broken out south of #Andriivka (Kharkhov oblast), due to #Russian shelling. This intensity of fire ensures that in this sector, UA forces have been forced south of the Siverskyi donets river. This is an important part of the front, as RU forces have tried
to push #Ukrainian forces south of the river and away from the main R78 highway and more importantly the railway (#Izium - #Kharkhov). UA forces have learned to very stubbornly & effectively cling to forested areas. In fact most of the active front today is along the forest belt
between Kharkhov and Lugansk. UA forces do not do well in open terrain, nor do they wield field units that can maneuver in them, but they do defend doggedly in urban centers, prepared entrenchments, and dense forest. The combination of the long river and dense forest on its banks
In the wake of highly exaggerated reports from #Ukrainian officials about an offensive towards #Melitopol, we have signs of significant fires in the area. This could be sabotage (things are getting dry and easy to light) and/or something related to UA's Yevgeny Balitsky claim
that more than 50 Tochka-U missiles (which would be a very large attack) were fired at the city. This may spark some speculation that the Ukrainian offensive did in fact take place (and is succeeding). I believe this could be sabotage, strikes of some sort, or coincidental fires
and likely related to the announcement yesterday of a Russian referendum to be held in #Melitopol, but I see no signs of a breakthrough of Ukrainian formations at this point. Independently, the claim of shooting 50 Tochka-U missiles at one time is also quite unlikely.
A word on Ukraine's favorite front, the #Kharkhov front. Wanting to first comment on the more critical areas, did not get a chance yet to comment on this upon my return, but may be indicative of a significant change. Until now, as hard as it might be to believe, the official
territorial claims of both countries, specifically the MoDs has been relatively accurate and matching. Of course with plenty of exceptions, especially when there is still fighting in a town or city, one or both parties have prematurely claimed control over it. And while Ukrainian
military claims & PR efforts can be & often are fantastical (Ghost of Kiev, Snake Island etc), & both MoDs have been known to issue incorrect information, what I am referring to is that there has not been widely differing claims (of many kilometers & several towns/cities deep)
In other news, unrelated to war in #Ukraine, #Ukrainian forces thrust 80Km south through an entrenched & long static front line and are near capturing a strategic & large Russian speaking city, #Melitopol, severing the communication lines between Crimea and Donetsk.
I thought this one was too much, even for the @KyivIndependent, but usually there is some real-life event that inspires their fantastical claims. It must be this. There is apparently an offensive or attempt at one in this front. You can see roughly the front, Melitopol far to the
south, and very recent (mostly last hour or two) strikes and fires at #Russian held #Polohy. The industrial area around the rail freight terminal is the main target and was already hit by a drone ~2 days ago as we see in this UA released video. These may be secondary fires