Thread by @ZimermanErik

Related to this front around #Balakliia, and the #Izium supply hub, which I spoke about in the quoted thread, I wish to speculate about another possible future development. The forests west of Izium are scenes of some of the fiercest & least reported aspects of the war recently.

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1535058330104000513

As I have mentioned, UA forces' ability to operate in dense wooded areas has steadily increased. It is clear to everyone that the Izium supply hub, road & rail junctions, and river/forest passageway to the south are critical to the RU offensive. While RU forces achieved an

important & impressive victory in its capture, which UA forces fought desperately to prevent, the breakthrough remained narrow for a long time. Only recently has Russia widened it towards the east (less dense territory) & connected it by rail to the Kupiansk line as discussed.

However, to the west it has remained a different story. UA forces control the territory up to the forest's western edge which is the (north - south in this section) siverskyi donets river. They control Protopopivka and Zavhorodnie in the area. UA launched determined offensives to

advance along the forests and seize Izium, or at least cut off the key supply line & keep it under fire. This represented one of UA's most realistic chances of seriously hurting the RU campaign. I do not know how much priority they gave it in terms of resources compared to their

recent failed offensives elsewhere, but in either event it failed as well. But not without effect. There is no doubt that this harassments has locked up significant RU troops guarding Izium and affected the flow of supplies through it, not to mention construction and repair of

facilities. The image shows only the most recent 1-day thermal activity in the area... the forest has daily and nightly hosted strange & often unreported battles between some of the war's most capable and elite units (especially on the UA side). Scouts, recon and sabotage units

infiltrate the forest, hide and battle each other while the blows from huge artillery duels fly over them, and often land all to near them. While RU has tried a straightforward approach to protect Izium from these attacks & secondly clear the forest of enemies, pushing the front

westwards, it has not been wildly successful. While it may very well continue this approach, with Balakliia now rail-supplied, I have a feeling that it may try something else instead or as well. Russia may push southwards from Balakliia towards #Husarivka, and try to seize the

high ground west of the forest. This would open up a second smaller "Izium" (as a breakthrough in the forest southwards) in this sector and potentially encircle the forces threatening Izium. Whether they stay there to be successfully encircled or not, it may be a more effective

method to enlarge the Izium bridgehead westwards & place the strategic town out of harm's way. We have no indication yet of such a move, and I am by no means certain that RU will try it in the near-term, but we shall see if the coming days reveal any RU efforts towards Husarivka.