Thread by @ZimermanErik

An update on this operation. The #Russian crossing was indeed successful. While fighting continued in the area until the 8th, #Sviatohirsk is fully in RU control. #Tetianivka across the river was captured, as well as #Pryshyb & its high grounds. Fighting in Bohordychne continues

https://twitter.com/ZimermanErik/status/1534349152058060800

& it has held already longer than I first expected. However the RU forces retain fire control over the bridge & large parts of the town & should fully control it in the near future. As of our last known data, the bridge remained standing, though RU forces already have alternative

crossings in the area. Reports indicate RU forces are already advancing towards #Sydorove which is a key town to hold as we discussed earlier. However, the more interesting question is the RU direction after that or even before that. Strong UA forces still hold the front at

Dolyna, Krasnopilia, along the main E40 highway, and as mentioned are still in parts of of Bohordychne. The successful RU bridgehead allows cutting these forces off by advancing on the highway and Adamvika. The obstacle is a dense forest likely reinforced with UA troops.

While we might expect the RU forces to first secure Sydorove & then take road through the forest towards the E40 & then head towards Adamivka (while perhaps also advancing on Maiaky), I believe it is more likely & perhaps wiser that the RU forces will avoid the dense wood and,

even before taking Sydorove, advance SW along the smaller road at the north edge of the forest & the ridge that dominates it. Reaching the E40 would cut off UA forces on both sides of the advance in some ways. All of this is of course part of the larger campaign for Sloviansk and

or the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka line. Reaching the E40 road will lead to the collapse of the defenses around Dolyna & allow the forces advancing along the road from #Izium to link up with these coming from the newly established bridgehead fed by the rail hub at Sosnove

Previously, this front along the E40 at Kransopilia, Dolyna and even at Dovhenke (which only fell on the 7th after 2 months) has not been pierceable by the RU forces, especially after that very long supply line. Cutting them off from their rear (towards Sloviasnk) would be wise.

For their part, the #Ukrainian forces need to stop this advance towards the E40 more than they need to try to hold Sydorove or Maiaky as the RU forces are I believe fainting towards. Otherwise the collapse of this front means the advance on Sloviansk from the west, north & east.