Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Jun 11 4 tweets 2 min read
1/4 - Nous devons parfois faire face à des choix en termes de politiques de contrôle de la pandémie qui sont assez peu abordés par les experts et les autorités.
Ici 2 exemples très différents:
- L’isolement des patients dans la #VarioleDuSinge
- Le port du masque dans le #COVID19
2/4 - #VarioleDuSinge
La science recommande l’abstinence sexuelle et l’isolement des cas.
Mais pour que cela fonctionne, il faut un minimum d’adhésion des personnes concernées.
Le pragmatisme ne suggère-t-il pas alors la prophylaxie post exposition (PEP) Tecovirimat et/ou vaccin?
3/4 - #COVID19
La science recommande le port du masque FFP2 en milieu intérieur, plus efficace en termes de capacités filtrantes.
Mais avec quelle empreinte écologique?
Une forme d’éco-responsabilité ne justifierait-elle pas parfois l’usage des masques en tissu moins efficaces?
4/4 - N’y a-t-il pas un peu trop souvent une réticence médicale et scientifique à recommander la réduction du risque plutôt que son élimination?
Issue d’un autre domaine, la lutte contre les addictions nous apprend beaucoup à ce sujet, mais savons-nous en tirer toutes les leçons?

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More from @FLAHAULT

Jun 12
1/8 - Le fossé entre les rassuristes et les précautionneux ne semble pas se combler vis-à-vis du #COVID19.
Tentons d’analyser les positions des uns et des autres.
J’affiche d’emblée mes conflits d’intérêts: je suis précautionneux!
2/8 - Les rassuristes pensent qu’Omicron a tellement changé la donne que la situation ne justifie plus aucune mesure sanitaire obligatoire.
Les précautionneux pensent que la “paix armée” obtenue au prix d’une forte couverture vaccinale reste précaire et justifie le port du masque
3/8 - Les rassuristes se raccrochent bien naturellement aux branches rassurantes: ex “BA.2 a peu circulé au Portugal, expliquant la forte morbidité sévère et mortalité liée à BA.5”.
Les précautionneux redoutent un scénario à la portugaise voire pire, là où l’on est moins vaccinés
Read 8 tweets
Jun 11
1/9 - “The name #hMPXV may not roll off the tongue, but a prominent, international group of researchers contends that something like it should replace the current naming system for #monkeypox and its so-called West African and Congo Basin strains.”
science.org/content/articl…
2/9 - “In the context of the current global outbreak, continued reference to, and nomenclature of this virus being African is not only inaccurate but is also discriminatory and stigmatizing.”
3/9 - “The call echoes previous debates over the names of other diseases and pathogens, including a recent one that led to the current nomenclature for #SARSCoV2 variants, with Greek letters replacing geographical names like the Wuhan or South African strain.”
Read 9 tweets
Jun 11
1/9 - Jun 11 to Jun 16 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
#COVID19 new wave led by #BA5:
- Surging/rising in the DE (R-eff=1.29);UK=1.22/DK=1.17; NL=1.15; CH=1.14; AU=1.14;SP=1.10; LUX=1.07; IT=1.06, low-med mort.;
- Plateauing in FR=1.01; NO=1.01; [PT=0.96]; , [high] low-med mort.
- (Slow) landing: IRL=0.94.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity in Greece (R-eff=1.05);
- (Slow) landing towards their safety zones in Latvia=1.02; Croatia=0.91; Estonia=0.96; Slovenia=1.02;
- Safe elsewhere.
No report from Ukraine since Feb 24.
Read 11 tweets
Jun 9
1/9 - “China is building hundreds of thousands of permanent coronavirus testing facilities and expanding quarantine centres across its biggest cities as part of its #ZeroCovid policy, despite the economic and human toll on the world’s most pop country.”
ft.com/content/d3f3b5…
2/9 - “Residents of Shanghai woke up on Thursday to an announcement that lockdown measures and mass testing would be conducted in the Minhang district, home to more than 2mn people, for at least two days, […] after a punishing two-month lockdown.”
3/9 - “Tough restrictions in scores of cities have driven the country to the edge of recession for just the second time in three decades. Experts believe the government’s virus infrastructure programme is designed to sustain the mass-testing and quarantine policies through 2023.”
Read 9 tweets
Jun 7
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.01) is experiencing a rebound in its #COVID19 new cases, low mortality. 81.2% > 1 dose.
22,213 cases and 37 deaths/day to be reported by Jun 13, if at same pace.
Forecast for Jun 07 to Jun 10:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE
& @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Three mainland Régions are rising or increasing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality:
Ile-de-Fr (R-eff=1.12);
Nouv-Aq=1.06;
Occit=1.09;
3/4 - Ten mainland Région are plateauing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [med] mortality:
AURA (R-eff=0.97);
Brg-Fr-Comté=1.03;
Bretagne=1.01;
Ctre-Val-de-Loire=0.92;
Corse=0.95;
[Grand-Est=1.0];
Hauts-de-France=0.97;
[Normandie=1.02];
P-de-Loire=0.98;
[PACA=0.93].
Read 6 tweets
Jun 6
1/15 - “Biden officials in recent months privately discussed how many daily #COVID19 deaths it would take to declare the virus tamed, three people familiar with the conversations told POLITICO.”
politico.com/news/2022/06/0…
2/15 - “The discussions, which took place across the administration, and have not been previously disclosed, involved a scenario in which 200 or fewer Americans die per day, a target kicked around before officials ultimately decided not to incorporate it into pandemic planning.”
3/15 - “One U.S. health official told POLITICO the number was “aspirational ... a general metric people have bounced around a lot” that would signal that “the pandemic would be under control.” But, this person added, the figure “never passed the hurdles to be a formal metric.”
Read 15 tweets

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