Thread by @Cryptadamist

in depth analysis of a $BTC collapse scenario posted saturday playing out #contagion scenario that i thought had a 10% chance to destroy crypto by Monday.

most important single event will probably be when a $BTC bank stops withdrawals... now #Celsius

reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/com…

now that #celsius has closed its doors exactly in line w/my worst case scenario for $BTC / $ETH / #crypto, i suspect #cryptocollapse is coming at us a lot faster than people expect.

if you have people you care about who have coins, i recommend you encourage them to sell ASAP. and don't leave the sell proceeds in your #crypto exchange #CEX/whatever - get them into your bank account. leaving them on the exchanges is honestly almost as risky as staying in $BTC

exchanges are not FDIC. if they go bankrupt yr assets are now considered an asset of the now bankruptcy to be used to pay off the company's creditors.

the bondholders (not customers) are first in line. @coinbase even just made you click "Agree" to this:
wsj.com/articles/coinb…

#Celsius is just the first domino. If the history of financial manias is accurate (and it is), Celsius will soon knock over another, slightly bigger #DeFi institution or possibly an exchange... which will in turn knock over another, bigger exchange...

things will look bad for a while. wobbly offshore exchanges will close. it will seem ok again for a while maybe even. and then... #Tether will blow up. at that point it's game over.

#cryptomania will be in every economics textbook written from here on out because it is:

1. the first truly global economic mania
2. the first mania to have arisen purely from, and exist only on, the internet

$BTC $ETH #crypto #gn

as new as the shape of #cryptomania may be, however... this is not a new story, which is why we know exactly how it will end. #tulips, #southseabubble, #johnlaw.

there is going to be a lot of pain, especially for the younger generation.

@SECGov / @CFTC failed these people.

to those who in a year might be trying to understand how they believed in all this magic internet money, don't feel bad. #IsaacNewton, one of the smartest people to ever walk the face of the earth, went broke in a bubble.

businessinsider.com/isaac-newton-l…

when i posted this on reddit i faced some online abuse and attempts to silence my essay... so just in case here's a download. do me a favor and grab a copy if you see this tweet. repost it to social media if this tweet disappears. dead man switch style lobitlandscapes.s3.amazonaws.com/(3)+New+system…

for further reading i recommend @peerchemist's essay about how the mechanics of the #crypto markets will break down if #Tether collapses.
peerchemist.medium.com/what-will-happ…

yeah this is gonna be ugly.

https://twitter.com/Cryptadamist/status/1536383879506022400