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Jun 14 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
OPEC+ missed their #oil output target even more in May. Short thread with charts. 🧵
This was the worst month for OPEC+ since we started sharing comments on this. Highlights (all in MM bbl/d):
Total production for OPEC+ countries (excluding the OPEC exempt) was 37.60, falling short of the 40.37 quota by 2.77 MM bbl/d.

OPEC 13 production increased by 0.25, 0.15 short of their target increase
17/19 OPEC+ countries (excluding the exempt) missed their production quotas, the highest number of misses ever since we started sharing comments on this.
Russian production is up materially, for now. Worth noting.
Our original white paper on "The Myth of OPEC+ Spare Capacity" bisoninterests.com/content/f/the-…
And the updated and more in depth "OPEC+ Spare Capacity is Insufficient Amid Global Energy Crisis"
bisoninterests.com/content/f/opec…

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More from @BisonInterests

Bison Interests Profile picture
May 16
In the Golden Age of Oil and Gas Producers, one group stands out as particularly attractive for prospective investment: small cap oil and gas producers (E&Ps). A thread on valuation dislocations in small cap E&Ps and the associated investment opportunity.🧵
(1/8) Share prices for small cap E&Ps have languished vs. large cap E&Ps (XLE) and the broader market (SPY) since the last oil cycle high in 2014, despite improving fundamentals in line with their large cap counterparts: Image
(2/8) In our previous white paper, The Golden Age of Oil and Gas Producers, we demonstrated that E&Ps are benefitting from structural cost reductions and increased capital efficiency, resulting in better margins in a similar oil price regime.
bisoninterests.com/content/f/the-…
Read 9 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Apr 18
Business has never been better for oil and gas producers.

Here's why share prices can move even higher from here, in this Golden Age of Oil and Gas Producers 🧵
(1/13) Improving fundamentals have renewed interest in oil and gas equities, and a once left-for-dead sector is seeing share prices rising. Yet even with recent outperformance, there's room to run as oil equities catch up to Oil and the broader market:
(2/13) And while rising commodity prices have undeniably been a tailwind for E&Ps, their business models and balance sheets have improved markedly since the last cycle high. Cash flows have nearly doubled from levels achieved in 2014, a time with a similar oil price:
Read 14 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Jan 18
DUC Dilemma & 2022 Oil Market Outlook: A Thread

Despite the run-up in energy prices over the last year, we’re likely in the early innings of an o&g bull market. Here’s why we think 2022 could be another stellar year for oil and gas equities 🧵
(1/19) #Oil prices are moderate when benchmarked against #CPI #inflation, which may be understated Image
(2/19) The macroeconomic backdrop for oil is compelling. Hostile policies directed at producers and un-economic “ESG” mandates are restricting capital, which is lowering supply, raising prices and causing a lot of pain for consumers, particularly in Europe: Image
Read 20 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Dec 20, 2021
On buying the oil dip. While many are calling for the end of the oil and gas bull market, or attempting to time the market, we embrace this volatility and continue to buy discounted shares. A thread 🧵
(1/x) The recent pullback kicked off with the announcement of the novel “Omicron” variant. This started sentiment-driven, as with a lack of concrete data at the time of announcement, it was up to investors imaginations to forecast potential market impacts of spiking case counts
(2/x) A few weeks later, full lockdowns of major economies remain unlikely, as both real-world data and messaging from health officials suggest that Omicron, while far more infectious than previous mutations of the virus, is far less deadly @jpmorgan
Read 21 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Dec 8, 2021
News about Kuwait struggling to raise production just hit the wire. Just in time for our OPEC+ compliance scorecard for November!
OPEC+ under-produced their quota again in November #oott #oil #opec
This is a follow up on our earlier analysis on OPEC+ spare capacity bisoninterests.com/content/f/opec…
Read 6 tweets
Bison Interests Profile picture
Nov 25, 2021
Winter is (almost) here! Time for another energy crisis thread. Record power prices, coal and natural gas shortages (and even ration cards!), what else will unfold? 🧵
First up, surging Nordic power prices hit all time highs
And Poland has responded to surging prices by cutting energy taxes
Read 18 tweets

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