BREAKING
It pains me to have to tweet this thread on Youth Day. I have reliable information that despite government undertakings that SRDGrant payments will be paid this week, back payment of April & May Grants will not occur this month😡:
👉April/May payments will only start in
July
👉June payments will at best start next week
👉The only payments being made this week are outstanding payments from August- Nov 2021.
This means over 8 million poor S Africans will have waited for up to 4 months to receive April grants; & over 10 million applicants up to 3
months to receive May grants! This is totally scandalous when people who have close to zero income are depending on the #R350 grant to fight hunger. One month's delay can be a disaster. Up to 4 months is a catastrophe!
This is a result of government not having put the necessary
systems in place before they changed the regulations. Now poor people are having to pay the price for this failure. This is unacceptable.
President @CyrilRamaphosa needs to step in, and honour the government's commitment to pay the grants now.
This can be done through:
👉an emergency condonation of all April-May applications ie payment based on declarations people have made
👉any fraudulent claims can be dealt with in due course (despite Ministers' statements the grants have been one gov.t programme freest of fraud- only 0,2% of applications)
👉if necessary an emergency amendment should be made to the Regulations to facilitate this intervention.
Dedicated #SASSA officials are working overtime to resolve a crisis not of their own making. But the people we need to focus on are the desperate S Africans facing hunger,
soaring unemployment, rising food & fuel prices.
On #YouthDay2022 we should remember that a large portion of SRD Grant applicants is young:
Around 44% or 4,639 million of the 10,6 million applicants in May 2022 were youth under the age of 30. Further, evidence shows income
transfers encourage participation in economic activity, job seeking, & have many social benefits. The success of SRD Grants (albeit set at too low a level) is well established by research;if gov.t doesn't fix this mess it will be seriously shooting itself in the foot. Just do it!
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The @IEJ_SA today releases a seminal policy brief- Designing a Basic Income Guarantee- that has been 3 months in development. It reviews international literature on universal vs targeted grants, & draws key lessons for the design of a #UBIG for S Africa. iej.org.za/designing-a-ba…
Key findings include:
•How a BIG is designed is as important as its adoption.
•A key flaw of targeting a specific vulnerable group:it doesn't reach them in practice...due to administrative burdens, unwarranted exclusions, stigmatisation,& changes in eligibility of recipients.
In contrast, universality minimises these risks while appropriate taxation measures ensure only those in need receive a net benefit.
..modelling shows providing larger grants to fewer people does not necessarily result in improved poverty-alleviating and distributional outcomes.
I have been overwhelmed with responses to my tweet👇of DSD Minister announcing governments intention to implement a #BasicIncomeGrant. Leaving aside the usual attacks by trolls, serious concerns raised can be boiled down to 8 issues. I deal with these as best I can below. Thread:
1. *Why is it only proposed to benefit those from 18-59*? The reason is that there are extensive grants for children and pensioners, & the big gap is the poor & unemployed from 18-59. If the grant for this group is universal (not means-tested), then it will be a BIG
2.*Why now, when the Covid-19 unemployed grant has been such a mess?* The crisis of unemployment & poverty (over 10 million unemployed, & over 50% in poverty) is growing as the Covid crisis deepens. The Covid grant expires end October. There has to be something to replace it. A
As we head towards the #budget@TitoMboweni announced the government intends to introduce #ZeroBasedBudgeting (ZBB)- the notion that budgets are justified from scratch- to radically cutback on spending. What does this mean?
A thread:
When the RDP was introduced in 1994, the notion of #ZBB (while not mentioned in the RDP doc.) was used at the time to convey the idea that apartheid budgets couldn’t serve as the baseline, but that new budgets needed to be constructed by the democratic state.
A relatively conservative section was controversially inserted on macro economic policy & budgeting- a discussion for another time. omalley.nelsonmandela.org/omalley/index.…
Ive been asked to comment on why @UKLabour was defeated in the #UKelection2019 & so many working class people voted for right wing #Tories. Outsider humility dictates caution in responding, but I have collated some articles containing incisive analyses.They suggest some answers👇
But "Labour did not succeed in turning the big manifesto offer into a short, sharp set of priorities that showed that they would make you ...directly better off" mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
Some people have asked for our comment on the #Treasury#EconomicStrategy document
There are two major issues: process and content.
I deal with these in turn.Note: these are not the official views of the @IEJ_SA 👇
Firstly on *process*
National Treasury has gone rogue...again
They have unilaterally published a policy document without engaging
👉government structures
👉ANC structures or
👉civil society (unless you count financial sector economists present at their colloquia).
Given that we are in a deep economic crisis, this Treasury unilateralism is highly irresponsible, as broad engagement on the *nature of the problem* is critical to coming up with *appropriate solutions*. But it now emerges that such engagement was totally absent.
How many workers will benefit from the #NMW? According to research by @SA_NMW around *4 million workers* are earning <R20 p/h. This is a significant no. - over one third of the formal workforce. The widely quoted figure of 6,4 million isn't accurate, & reflects 2016 estimates.
Nevertheless a high proportion of workers in SA will benefit from the #NationalMinimumWage by international standards. According to the @SA_NMW the following fell below the NMW: in 16 Latin American countries most were below 15%. In the UK, 5%. Germany, 7% Malaysia, 15%.