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kumar saurabh

@suru27

Jun 17

@MashraniVivek

A thread of strength in the market.

An analysis which I did during Covid crash with @MashraniVivek on which sectors and stocks were strong, and we did pick pharma, chemical early cycle. Though we do not know where market is heading, doing such exercise always helps to find

strength when market bottoms. Of course, it requires much more reading and conviction building and hence should be taken only as a starting point. Here is how this list has been generated
1. Pick top 500 companies
2. Find list of companies which have fallen < 10% in last 3 months

Totally 61 out of 500 stocks.
This is how the sectors come up.
✍️Auto and Capital Goods stand out
✍️Do not ignore defence for sheer count as there are few companies in sector
✍️Next pocket looks like few beaten down sectors/stocks where may be value is emerging - FMCG, Pharma

Read 5 tweets

kumar saurabh

@suru27

Jan 10

🧵A thread of how a typical investing journey looks like by studying journey of Infosys from 2996-2022 in numbers.
✍️Infosys has generated a CAGR of 36.57%
✍️Infosys has given cumulative return of 333,652%

Quite impressive, is not it? However, the journey was not so smooth

✍️In last 25+ years while delivering this return, Infosys went through one 80%+ drawdown, two 50%+ drawdowns and five 30%+ drawdowns in terms of price fall
✍️ Time periods could be more frustrating the % fall at times. This is where 2020 Covid crash was though severe

but not frustrating as not many have gone through the time duration pain. Infosys longest drawdown period lasted for more than 5 years+. 2001-2006 and 2010-2013 , peak level investors did not see any return. Here are 5 worst drawdown periods for Infosys

Read 12 tweets

kumar saurabh

@suru27

Dec 12, 2021

🧵A thread on how company's books are cooked and 📒why reading annual report is important

This is a company where this is how its assets looked like. Notice 25% of assets are intangibles and there is an asset called - Business Commercial Rights

Now this is how company defined Business Commercial Rights - "The Company has entered into an exclusive facilitation service agreement with various educational trusts in accordance
with which the Company has exclusive rights for a period of 30 years to provide various

facilitation services for schools/
courses to be set up by these educational trusts. The Company has paid one time fixed fee to the educational trusts
towards such exclusive rights. The fee paid is recognized as an intangible asset and accordingly capitalized as ‘Business

Read 9 tweets

kumar saurabh

@suru27

Dec 2, 2021

https://twitter.com/suru27/status/1466508584871620612

Once you have read below thread and not yet bored, come and read this

3. If really doing fundamental investing, have your own conviction. Going through someone else research work is not conviction. Actual individual research starts after that

https://twitter.com/suru27/status/1466508584871620612

4. If technical guy, build your own system or process than seeking buy sell tips on social media. charts change views change, results change views change, its better to learn 1 time than asking 1000 times

5. Use social media to gather ideas but use your own filters

6. Above all, remember this. Both bulls are bears are thumping their own ego, nothing else, not their fault, human (me too guilty - both sides).

Read 4 tweets

kumar saurabh

@suru27

Dec 2, 2021

A thread🧵 on so called market traps of transitionary performing stocks which leads to retail getting stuck. Doing as lot of tweets floating on such stocks.

Will take example of one of such stock with my own twitter history though I never presented in public #Neulandlabs

1. If you think, every performing stock will become an Asian paints, you are in for disaster. 99% of businesses are cyclic, only quantum differs. So, either do not overpay or if overpaying a bit and have confidence in the business, then,

hold for long (15-20% of companies still in long run generate 15%+ CAGR). One should know his time frame, expectation, price he or she is paying and what kind of investor class he belongs to. This is how story usually starts and ends:

Read 26 tweets

kumar saurabh

@suru27

Nov 30, 2021

🧵 A thread on #StarHealth #starhealthipo
📽️Will post YouTube video tomorrow

You may skip initial tweets but do read last 7-8 tweets because that is where the key risks are and some of them are least discussed

Please like and retweet for better reach🙏

The good side: Why health insurance sector?
High Growth Industry
Huge Market Size Opportunity
Yet to catch up with worldwide average
Shift from public to private

Good future opportunity size and growth prospects if India’s GDP can grow
health insurance expected to grow at ~16% CAGR over FY20-30E with an assumption of ~53% penetration (penetration in USA at 91% as of CY17 ), 1% CAGR population growth of 1% CAGR and 6% medical inflation

Read 25 tweets

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