The European Council looks set to breach its treaty obligations. On 9 June @Europarl_EN made a formal proposal to revise Article 48(7) TEU so that the famous ‘passerelle’ clause will in future be triggered by QMV not unanimity. 1/ europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document…
Everyone knows that the best way to have more voting and less vetoing in the Council is through use of the passerelle. Indeed, this is openly admitted by the Council in its reaction to the conclusions of the #CoFoEdata.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/S… 2/
What the Council don’t say is that because of the national veto the existing passerelle clause is inoperable.
Under Article 48(3) #EUCO must now decide whether to examine Parliament’s proposal. That decision is taken by simple majority. What the leaders cannot do is nothing. 3/
They have to react one way or the other — and have lots of options, including a debate on whether to call a Convention or not, possibly prepared by an independent reflection group. However, the draft #EUCO conclusions, discussed now by the General Affairs Council, omit this. 4/
Instead, there will be blah-blah about #CoFoE and soft words about #Ukraine. But there is no prospect of enlargement if the leaders refuse to change the treaties. #Facteuropa.eu/!mgTD7m 5/
So unless the leaders address themselves properly to the constitutional issue before them, Parliament should get ready to sue them in the Court of Justice for failure to act (Article 265 TFEU). @EUCourtPress 6/
The Czech presidency is organising another futile Council discussion on treaty change on 14-15 July. On 9 August Parliament can formally call on the Council to act. On 9 October Parliament should sue the Council in the Court of Justice for failure to act on its resolution.
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Just suppose, for the moment, that we had a really, really stupid British government that wanted to trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol. 1/
The Protocol allows for unilateral safeguard measures in the case of “serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade”. 2/
Note that trade “diversion” here does not mean NI folk simply preferring to trade with the EU rather than Great Britain — a smooth and efficient pattern of trade which is explicitly facilitated by the Protocol. 3/
There’s really nothing like a budgetary crisis to budge the Europe forward in the right direction. If HU and PO continue to block, the normal thing to do would be for the EU leaders to cave in – as they did to the British in 2016. #EUCO 1/
The much better thing would be to trigger enhanced cooperation (by QMV) and establish the grant element of the economic recovery programme by and on behalf of only those states which participate. 2/
Once established, the core group can choose to act by QMV even for the decision to raise the own resources ceiling as well as for a new #MFF — all with European Parliament consent. The enhanced group has to pay for itself — which should stimulate the markets. 3/
As soon as the government moves the 2nd reading of the Internal Market Bill on Monday afternoon, one expects the EU Commission to launch an infringement action (Article 87 Withdrawal Agreement) on the grounds that the UK is *already* failing to fulfil its obligations. 1/
Specifically, the UK has breached Article 5 of the WA (good faith), Article 167 (cooperation in dispute settlement), and Article 168 (exclusivity in dispute settlement). @SuellaBraverman could then submit more of her lucid observations. 2/
The Commission will then issue a binding Reasoned Opinion (Article 258 TFEU), and would add a warning that it intends to pursue the UK further once the official WA arbitration panel is in place come January, should sections 41, 42, 43 and 45 of the Bill be enacted into law. 3/
Looks like #EUCO has reached the point of “last resort” where enhanced cooperation can kick in to “further the objectives of the Union, protect its interests and reinforce its integration process” (Art. 20 TEU). Merkel & Macron can easily corral the minimum 9 member states. 1/
The group will represent the majority of EU population and the great bulk of its GNI. @vonderleyen needs to make the proposal based on the Commission’s original plan to issue eurobonds at scale to fund an economic recovery programme run by itself subject only to reverse QMV. 2/
Eurobond-holders will be paid by direct taxes levied only from taxpayers in the participating states. Spending will be above and beyond the EU budget. Council unanimity is required to launch such enhanced cooperation and MEPs have to give their consent (Art. 329 TFEU). 3/
Yesterday’s lacklustre Eurogroup passed the buck to the heads of government. The European Council tomorrow must shoulder its constitutional responsibility to secure the cohesion of the EU as a whole, and in particular take decisive action to consolidate the euro. 1/
Dealing with the pandemic will exacerbate the structural imbalance between richer and poorer states. The EU has for years evaded the issuance of a mutualised safe asset in the form of eurobonds. The eurozone survives courtesy of @ecb but still without a common fiscal policy. 2/
The #coronavirus crisis is time to rectify this flaw in economic and monetary union. The plague risks the lives of all EU citizens equally, and the social and economic impact will be much worse than the asymmetric shock of the financial crash in 2008. 3/
Funnily enough, although I can hardly recall what I was up to last week, I am beginning to remember very clearly what I was doing in January 1973. I was coming as a student from @stjohnscam to @IEE_Bruxelles 1/
Joining the European Community felt like sending reinforcements to aid the European cause. The British were adding their weight to the peaceful effort to unify the mainland, rather like our fathers had done in wartime. 2/
Europe wanted the UK to offer much with its parliamentary government and civil liberties. Beyond the arguments over farms, fish and oil, the British contribution to Western security in the Cold War was expected to be of significant lasting benefit to Europe as a whole. 3/